Three of four instruments at fresh extension prints overnight and ES is just sitting there, coiling between 7388 and 7410 right under the 7400 ceiling. NQ punched 28814 fresh. Gold ripped to 4763, fresh top. Crude lost another floor, sitting 91.94 with 91.33 the new spike low. Meanwhile gas jumped here $0.43 overnight yesterday.
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The Tape
ES Wednesday opened 7331 right at the gap and ground to a fresh 7396 high, closing 7386.75 just under it. POC 7365, VAH 7378, VAL 7327. Globex held the trend in a tight 7389 to 7410 cage with price now 7397 just under the 7400 round. Acceptance, not chop.
NQ Wednesday opened 28389 above the prior session, ranged 28336 to 28725.75 fresh, and closed 28710 right at the highs. POC 28573, VAH 28607, VAL 28411. Globex extended further to 28814.5 fresh, sitting 28729 right at session VWAP. Mag7 doing what Mag7 does.
CL Wednesday opened 95.42 after Tuesday’s spike to 88.66 and back, ranged 94.33 to 97.34, closed 95.37 right on POC 95. VAH 95.83, VAL 94.71. Globex took out every floor in sequence and printed 91.33 fresh low, sitting 91.94. The unwind didn’t take a day off.
GC Wednesday opened 4680 above Tuesday’s value, ranged 4679 to 4729, closed 4703 mid-range. POC 4695, VAH 4711.7, VAL 4688.4. Globex blew through every prior daily high and printed 4763.6 fresh, sitting 4748.7 right at the projected high. Gold doesn’t care.
What I’m Watching
ES is the digestion read. Wednesday opened the gap, ground to fresh top, and Globex coiled tight overnight inside a 22-handle cage. Price sits 7397 right at today POC 7394 with the 7400 cap stacked just above. Bull-case: 7394 holds as the magnet, 7400 cracks, and the upside opens to 7410 Globex high into 7457 today expected high into 7500 next round. Bear-case: 7394 fails, 7388 today VAL cracks, and the staircase opens through 7365 Wednesday POC, 7327 Wednesday VAL, 7300 Month VAH (the cap that broke yesterday), 7287 Week POC stacked with 7280 Month POC.
NQ is whether the new ATH holds from above or 28750 caps the move. Wednesday closed 28710 at the highs and Globex extended to 28814.5 before fading back inside today’s value. Bull-case: 28735 holds, 28750 reclaims, the 28814 Globex high prints again with 29000 ceiling and 29086 expected top above. Bear-case: 28735 fails, today VAL 28666 cracks, 28573 Wednesday POC opens the staircase through 28435 Week VAH. Past 28435 the 28144 Month VAH and 28127 Week POC catches, with 27880 Month POC the deeper test.
CL is whether 93 today POC reclaims or the unwind extends. Wednesday closed 95.37 right on POC and Globex took out every level on the way to 91.33 fresh, sitting 91.94. Bull-case: 93 reclaims and the structure heals through 94.5 magnet, 94.71 Wednesday VAL, 95 Wednesday POC, with 100 round and 102 Week POC stacked above as the multi-week ceiling. Bear-case: 93 stays a cap from above, 91.51 today VAL cracks, 91.33 Globex low fails, 89.70 Prev month POC opens with 85.70 the next structural floor beneath.
GC is whether the rip extends to 4787 or the projected high caps it. Wednesday closed 4703 mid-range and Globex extended to 4763.6 fresh, settling 4748.7 right at the projected ceiling. Bull-case: 4745 holds as the pivot, 4763 Globex high prints again, 4787 call cap breaks, and the upside opens to 4812 (Prev month POC) and 4844 (Prev month VAH), air toward the 4917 cycle peak. Bear-case: 4745 fails, today VAL 4716 cracks, 4695 Wednesday POC opens through 4673 Month VAH, then 4658 Prev week VAH and 4630 Prev week POC catches, with 4570 (Week POC stacked with Month POC) the deeper test.
The White Van Stuff
The white van is up to its eyeballs again. ES is sitting on the 7400 ceiling where the call cap and today’s pin stack on the same line. The ceiling is the level. NQ printed fresh ATH 28814 above the 28750 daily lid and faded back inside, sitting 28729 below the cap. CL is below every options floor from Wednesday with the magnet 94.5 above and 90 today’s put floor as the next floor. GC ripped through the 4737 daily ceiling on the way to 4763, sitting 4748 at the day’s projected high of 4748.75. Daily expected ranges plus or minus 0.91% on ES (67 handles) and 1.29% on NQ (370). Three of four instruments are at or beyond the upper edge of expected, with crude below the lower edge the whole night.
ES is sitting 7397 under the 7400 ceiling where the call cap, today’s pin, and the heavy interest cluster all stack. Above 7400 the 7425 nearby cluster catches first, then 7450 heavy interest stacks ahead of the 7457 today expected high. Past 7457 the 7475 and 7500 heavy interest pair sit in the upper expected range. Below 7397 the 7380 nearby below catches at the upper edge of Wednesday’s value, then 7375 nearest below. Past 7375 the 7350 heavy interest cluster catches, then 7340 daily magnet, then 7322 today expected low at the 7320 floor band. Below 7320 the 7300 and 7290 heavy interest pair opens the deeper cascade. The 7400 line is the day’s binary.
NQ printed 28814.5 fresh in Globex above the 28750 daily lid and faded back inside, sitting 28729 between that line and the 28700 nearby below. Above 28750 the 28800 heavy interest cluster catches first, then 29000 ceiling is the structural cap, then 29086 today expected high tops the daily band. Past 29086 the 29250 / 29300 heavy interest pair sits as the air pocket. Below 28729 the 28700 nearby below stacks with the heavy interest right at price, then 28613 / 28600 cluster catches. Past that 28570 same-day magnet, then 28500 nearest below, then 28400 heavy interest. Below 28400 the 28347 today expected low and 28325 floor cluster opens the structural cliff. The 28750 line is the day’s question. Sustained acceptance above re-prints 28814 and opens 29000.
CL is below every options floor from Wednesday with the magnet 94.5, the same-day magnet 93.75, the 95 heavy interest, and the 96 nearby above all stacked overhead as resistance. Sitting 91.94 between the 92 nearest above and the 90 floor band. Above 91.94 the 92 nearest above catches first, then 93 today’s pivot, then 93.75 daily magnet and 94.5 magnet level form a cluster. Past 94.5 the 95 heavy interest, then 96 nearby above, then the 100 / 100.09 ceiling cluster (call cap, today’s pin, and the daily expected top stacked) caps the entire reclaim cascade. Below price the 90.07 today expected low and 90 floor catches first. Past 90 the 89.5 / 87 / 86 / 85 staircase opens the deeper structural floor where the long crowd from prev-month value lives. Crude has unwound every level it built since the geopolitical bid.
GC is sitting 4748.7 at the day’s projected high with the 4737 daily ceiling already broken from below. The only ceilings above price now are 4762 heavy interest, 4787 call cap, and 4812 air-pocket cap. The rip cleared the entire near-term option ladder in two sessions. Below price the 4737 line (now broken from below) flips to support if the bounce holds, then 4712 heavy interest catches. Past 4712 the 4687 nearest below is the next test, then 4657 same-day magnet stacks today’s put floor and the same-day pivot on the same line. Below 4657 the 4615 today is expected low catches, then 4572 magnet level opens the deeper cascade. Past 4572 the chart is air through to 4438 floor. Gold has run through every overhead in two days.
The Calendar
- 7:30 AM CT, Initial Jobless Claims
- 7:30 AM CT, Nonfarm Productivity Q1 Preliminary
- 7:30 AM CT, Unit Labour Costs Q1 Preliminary
The Plan
7394 today POC. Above 7394 the upside opens to 7400 cap into 7410 Globex high into 7457 expected top. Below 7394 fails and the staircase opens through 7388 today VAL, 7365 Wednesday POC, 7327 Wednesday VAL. Lose 7327 and 7300 Month VAH (the cap that broke yesterday) is back in play, with 7287 Week POC stacked above 7280 Month POC. The whole month’s value lives below 7300 and losing it puts the gap fully back inside April’s range.
28735 today POC. Above 28735 we look for 28750 daily lid into 28814 Globex high into 29086 expected top. Below 28735 fails and the staircase opens through 28666 today VAL, 28573 Wednesday POC, then 28435 Week VAH. Past 28435 the 28144 Month VAH and 28127 Week POC band catches, with 27880 Month POC the structural floor. The breakout cage holds while 28435 holds. Losing it cracks the multi-week trend.
93 today POC, the line price was rejected from. Above 93 reclaims and the structure heals through 94.71 Wednesday VAL, 95 Wednesday POC, 95.83 Wednesday VAH. If 95.83 reclaims, we go for 100 cap and the 102 Week POC band beyond as the multi-week ceiling. Below 93 stays a cap from above and the leak extends through 91.51 today VAL, 91.33 Globex low. Lose 91.33 and 89.70 Prev month POC opens deep, with 85.70 Prev month VAL the next structural floor. Headline tape runs every day.
4745 today POC. Above 4745 the upside opens to 4763 Globex high into 4787 call ceiling. If 4787 breaks we go for 4812 (Prev month POC) and 4844 (Prev month VAH), air toward the 4917 cycle peak above. Below 4745 fails and the cascade opens through 4716 today VAL, 4695 Wednesday POC, 4673 Month VAH. Past 4673 the 4658 Prev week VAH and 4630 Prev week POC catches, with 4570 (Week POC stacked with Month POC) the deeper structural floor.
Don’t get caught watching the paint dry.
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