First of October. Playoff baseball, Halloween candy in every store, and a month profile with nothing on it yet, so every monthly level on my map today is September’s. ES starts the month sitting on 7743, September’s POC, which is the market telling you a whole month of chop settled nothing. Over 7752 I want Wednesday’s value back and a look at the 7770 shelf, and under 7725.25 I’m watching 7709.25. NQ ran over September’s high in the dark and gave most of it back, so hold 30906 and I’m looking at 30944.75, lose it and 30873.75 is next. Crude swept 88.79, ripped to 92.90 and landed back on 91.35, Wednesday’s POC, and that’s the one level I care about. Gold has three sessions sitting on 4190, so that’s the floor, and it has to clear 4210.60 before I take a bounce seriously. ISM hits at 9:00 and gets a vote on all of it. We’ll see.
The Tape
ES is 7742.75, sitting on 7743, where September’s POC and this week’s POC share a price with the 7742 overnight print right on top. The most traded price of the whole month is exactly where October starts, which is a polite way of saying September settled nothing. Wednesday built its value up at 7770 and sold to a 7713 close, so everybody who bought that print is underwater, and the night rallied to 7767.75 and quit just under it, which is those same longs selling the first chance they got. That shelf is theirs until something proves otherwise. Over 7752, Wednesday’s value floor, the shelf gets tested again, and below 7725.25, last week’s low, 7709.25 is next.
NQ is holding over Wednesday’s 30906 high at 30931.75, tucked under 30944.75, the ceiling of the value the night built. It’s the only one of the four that took out September’s high, ran 31151.50 in the dark and handed most of it back before my alarm went off. The night did its business way down at 30830, so that run was price going exploring with no volume behind it, and value that doesn’t follow price is a probe I don’t trust. What argues the other way is NQ holding over Wednesday’s entire range while ES can’t even get back to Wednesday’s POC. Hold 30906 and 30944.75 is the gate, lose it and 30873.75, Wednesday’s value ceiling, is the first catch.
CL covered more ground overnight than Wednesday did all day and landed at 91.48, a hair over 91.35, Wednesday’s POC. It swept 88.79, through last week’s 89.47 low, found nobody home down there, and ripped to 92.90, a failed breakdown with a big receipt. The night did its business at 92.47, sitting over the 92 where September and last week both built their POC, and a slow drift back under all that volume hasn’t proven anything to anybody. Hold 91.35 and 91.67, Wednesday’s value ceiling, is the gate back to that shelf. Lose 90.80 and the night’s 90.49 value floor catches.
GC is sitting below everything last week built at 4205.90, parked on 4206.60, where the overnight’s value topped out. This week’s 4251.10 high never got back to last week’s 4279.50 low, so there’s an untouched gap overhead that this week never got near. Underneath, three sessions left their volume on the same couple of dollars, the week’s 4188.80 POC, Wednesday’s 4189.50 and the night’s 4190, and three sessions agreeing on one price is the closest thing to a floor gold has had all week. The catch is the night ran to 4222.80 and stopped a dime under Wednesday’s 4222.90 value ceiling, so the sellers still own that. Clear 4210.60, this week’s value high, and the fight moves up there, lose 4188.80 and 4169.40, the overnight low, is next.
The Calendar
Thursday, October 1 (all times CT):
- 4:30 Challenger Job Cuts (Sep)
- 6:45 Fed’s Kashkari Speaks
- 7:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 26)
- 7:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 19)
- 7:30 Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Sep 26)
- 8:45 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
- 9:00 Fed Waller Speaks
- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep)
- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices (Sep)
- 9:00 ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Sep)
- 9:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Sep 25)
- 10:30 8-Week Bill Auction
- 10:30 4-Week Bill Auction
- 12:30 Fed’s Governor Jefferson Speaks
- 2:00 Fed’s Bowman speech
- 2:30 Fed’s Governor Cook Testifies
- 2:30 Fed’s Williams Speaks
- 3:30 Fed’s Balance Sheet (Sep 30)
- 3:30 Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (Sep 30)
The Plan
ES:
7743 is September’s POC and ES is on it, so the first job is watching which side of it volume picks. Over 7752, Wednesday’s value floor, with 7749.25, last week’s value floor, just under it, ES gets a crack at 7762.75, this week’s VAH. Clear that and 7767.75 to 7771.50 is the shelf, the night’s high, Wednesday’s POC and last week’s POC stacked together, and the people who bought Wednesday’s top get to break even up there, so I want to see what happens before I trust anything over it. Lose 7725.25, last week’s low, and the week’s 7713.75 value floor and Wednesday’s 7709.25 low are one shelf, with the overnight low right behind it. Lose that and 7696.50, September’s value floor, is the last stop before 7575, September’s low.
NQ:
NQ has to hold 30906, Wednesday’s high, for the overnight run to mean anything, and nothing is decided between there and 30936.25. Over 30944.75, the overnight VAH, everything overhead is an old ceiling, 30950 last week’s value top and 30980.75 from Sep 22, places sellers already won once. Get through those and 31013, the Sep 23 high, opens the trip back to 31065.50, September’s high, with 31151.50, the overnight high, the last thing on the map, and this time I want volume following price up there, because last night it didn’t. Lose it and Wednesday’s 30873.75 value ceiling and 30850 POC are the first catch, with 30830, the night’s print, right under them. Under that, 30785.25, Wednesday’s value floor, opens 30740, last week’s POC, and 30724.75, where the overnight’s value bottomed.
CL:
Crude’s first job is 91.67, Wednesday’s value ceiling, with 91.35 underneath it the level that has to hold. Over it, 91.96, Wednesday’s high, is the doorstep to 92, September’s POC and last week’s on one price, with the night’s 92.47 print sitting on top. That’s the most agreed-on price on crude’s chart, so clearing it and the 92.90 overnight high opens 93.80, last week’s value top, with 95.70, this week’s high, the last of it. Lose 90.80, Wednesday’s value floor, and 90.49 to 90.21 is one shelf, the overnight value floor sitting on last week’s. Under that, 89.99, this week’s value floor, is all that stands in front of 89.58, the bottom of September’s value.
GC:
4206.60 and 4210.60 are stacked right over gold, the overnight value ceiling and this week’s, and gold has to get through both before a bounce counts. Clear them and 4220.80 to 4222.90, Wednesday’s open and value ceiling, is the first wall, the same spot the night stalled, with 4251.10, Wednesday’s high and the week’s, behind it. Over that, the gap up to 4279.60, last week’s value floor, hasn’t been traded all week, and 4318 to 4320, September’s VAL on last week’s POC, is the far end of it. Lose 4188.80, the week’s POC with Wednesday’s and the night’s on the same couple of dollars, and 4181.50, Wednesday’s value floor, goes first, then 4169.40, the overnight low. Under that, the only level left on the map is 4163.80, the floor of this week’s value.
The White Van Stuff
Both index books put their same-day lid right over the shelf the profile already flagged, which is the book and the chart agreeing for once. Crude’s book is upside down, with the same-day floor sitting over price, a few ticks from where the night did its business. Gold’s crams today’s pivot, the floor and the lid into one tight pile right overhead.
ES: ES is between 7745, the pivot, and 7730, today’s pivot. The same-day put floor at 7725 sits on last week’s low and the 7775 lid sits just over Wednesday’s POC, so the book and the profile agree on both ends. Price is 7742.75, under the 7745.
NQ: NQ ran through 31000, the same-day lid, and even printed over 31110.50, the high end of the day’s band, before coming back under all of it. 30900 is the nearest mark under price and the floor for the day sits way down at 30500. Price is 30931.75, between the 30900 and the 31000 lid.
CL: Crude’s same-day floor is 92.50, over price and a few ticks above the 92.47 print the night built, with the 93.50 lid just past the band’s upper end. Under price it’s 91, the pivot, then 90.75, today’s pivot. Price is 91.48, between the 91 pivot and the 92.50.
GC: Gold’s book stacks 4220, 4225 and 4230 right over price, the nearby mark, today’s pivot and the same-day put floor on one number, and today’s cap, with the first two sitting on Wednesday’s open and value ceiling. Under price it’s 4180, then 4150 for the put floor and 4132.50 at the bottom of the band. Price is 4205.90, between the 4180 and the 4220.
It’s a trap!
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