ES has to hold its overnight print and take 7732.75 back before I care about the bounce; lose the overnight value low and I am watching the lower shelves. NQ gets the same treatment, reclaim 29665 for longs or lose the September stack for shorts. Crude earns the next leg only above its overnight value high, while gold has to recover the top of overnight value or the new monthly low stays in play. Cave man simple, even if the candles spent all night making it look proprietary.
The Tape
ES is 7726.25, above the 7720 overnight POC but still under 7732.75, so buyers have earned nothing from the bounce yet. Wednesday rotated around 7777, but Globex broke its 7766 value floor and slid to 7710.25 before finding buyers. The night built value from 7710.75 to 7756.50 with its POC near the bottom, which is ugly until price proves otherwise. Hold 7720 and accept above 7732.75, then the September POC and overnight value high give buyers work through 7756.50. Lose 7710.75 and September value at 7696.50 is the first real catch before last week’s low at 7676.
NQ is 29538.5, below the 29600 overnight POC and trapped between 29460 and 29665, which is a ridiculous noise zone pretending to be useful. Wednesday’s rotation reached 30113 but could not keep it, and the night dumped through the 29771 low to 29417. Globex left value between that low and 29751.25, so price sitting under its own POC says the bounce still belongs to sellers. Reclaim 29600 and accept through 29665, then the prior-week value floor is the first place buyers can start repairing this mess at 29706. A break of 29460 puts the overnight low back on trial, followed by the week low at 29391.75.
CL is 99.33, under the 99.53 shelf and the 99.66 overnight value high after getting slapped back from the big round number. Wednesday was a rotation day around 97.25, then Globex opened at 97.78 and ran straight to 100.09. Overnight value spans 97.78 to 99.66 with its POC at 98, and that volume earned the break one more test even after the rejection upstairs. Accept above 99.66 and the September high comes first, then the overnight high and the week/October high at 100.14. If price loses last week’s high at 98.73, the 98 overnight POC is the first stop before Wednesday’s stacked POC at 97.25.
GC is 4102.3, barely over 4100 and under the 4106.40 overnight POC, which leaves buyers empty-handed at the bottom of this busted month. Wednesday rotated around 4150, then the night tore through October value at 4134.80. Gold kept going through the old 4091.20 October low to 4082.40, and the bounce from price discovery below the month has earned nothing yet. Reclaim 4106.40 and clear 4125.90, then the October value floor is the first level with enough structure to change the conversation at 4134.80. Under 4100, the old month low is back in play before the overnight low at 4082.40.
The Calendar
Thursday, October 22 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Jobless Claims (Oct 17)
- 9:00 US Leading Index (Sep)
- 9:00 Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)
- 9:30 EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Oct 16)
- 10:00 Kansas Fed Composite Index (Oct)
- 10:30 Treasury Bill Auction
- 12:00 5-year TIPS Auction
- 3:30 Fed Balance Sheet (Oct 21)
The Plan
ES:
ES is sitting just over the overnight POC and under 7732.75, so I want acceptance outside that little cage before doing anything. Acceptance through 7732.75 opens September’s 7743 POC, then Wednesday’s low at 7751. The week POC and overnight VAH make one shelf from 7754.75 to 7756.50, with Wednesday value starting at 7766. Above that, the POC pair at 7775 and 7777 is the last upside business; lose 7710.75 and the entire bounce failed. September value at 7696.50 has to catch below there, then the October/prev-week low cluster decides whether the map opens to September’s low at 7575.
NQ:
NQ is below its overnight POC and hanging under 29665, where this week’s value begins, so a random green candle down here earns exactly nothing from me. Reclaim 29665 and the first work is last week’s 29706 value floor, then September’s 29739.25 POC. Above the overnight VAH at 29751.25, the week POC and Wednesday low form one shelf at 29770 to 29771. Once that clears, October’s 29865.50 value floor and Wednesday’s 29874 open finish the upside; a failure through 29460 starts the short side. The Sep 16 and Sep 14 POCs stacked right under that break have to catch first, then 29417 and the Oct 16/week-low shelf, with the Sep 14 value floor at 29306 the last mark on the map.
CL:
Crude is inside the narrow shelf under its overnight value high, so I am treating the first push through it as an audition, not a coronation. Acceptance over 99.53 has to clear 99.66, then the Oct 19 high at 99.71. Above there, September’s 99.89 high opens the overnight high at 100.09 and the week/October high at 100.14. Lose last week’s 98.73 high and the week VAH at 98.35 comes first, followed by the overnight POC at 98. Below overnight value and its low, Wednesday’s VAH and open lead into the stacked POCs at 97.25.
GC:
Gold is under its overnight POC and sitting on the lower gate, an auction buyers have not repaired. Acceptance above 4125.90 opens the week low at 4131, then October value at 4134.80. The prior-week value floor at 4137.70 leads into Wednesday’s 4139.70 low and September’s 4143.10 low. Clear those and Wednesday value starts at 4144.40, with its 4150.10 close finishing the upside work. Below 4100, the Oct 7 VAL and last week’s low come first, then the old October low sitting on the Aug 3 POC, and under that shelf the Aug 3 and overnight value floors run down to the 4082.40 low.
The White Van Stuff
The books agree with the profiles on one useful thing this morning: every chart has a nearby mark on both sides, and none of them gets a free pass through the open. The indexes have tight brackets around current price, crude is leaning on its upper stack, and gold is parked on the lowest nearby floor of the four. Translate it, put it next to the profile, and stop pretending the white van has a crystal ball.
ES: ES sits between the nearby interest below at 7716.75 and the next mark above at 7741.75, almost exactly where the profile says the fight is. The larger stack starts at the 7801.75 pivot, while the book’s lower floor waits at 7691.75.
NQ: NQ is under 29575.50 and over 29475.50, so the closest options marks sit on either side of the same cage the profile built. Clear the upper mark and 29675.50 is next, while failure through the lower one opens 29375.50.
CL: Crude is over the nearby 99 floor and under the 100 cap after touching the same area the profile marked overnight. Acceptance above the cap opens the next interest at 100.50, while a rejection puts 98.50 back in front of price.
GC: Gold is barely over 4100 and under 4115, which makes the lower mark the same decision level the profile already gave us. Recover the upper one and the next interest sits at 4120; lose the floor and the book steps down to 4080.
Game’s the same. Just got more fierce.
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