School is back, and every market showed up with a different excuse for not doing its homework. ES cleared its overnight high, NQ pushed through August value, crude is back over 92, and gold cleared the whole overnight auction and then gave part of it back. ES, NQ, CL, and GC all get the same answer from me: no strong read. The reaction spots are clean, so I can wait for the first hour to vote. We’ll see.
The Tape
ES is 7721.25, through the 7705 overnight high and pressing 7720 after leaving overnight value above 7692, so the breakout audition is live. Wednesday finished above its 7650.50 open, but the 7679 POC and 7686.50 value ceiling kept the work compact. Globex tested 7661, exactly prev-week VAL, then built value from 7669.75 to 7692. The problem for the breakout is that its POC stayed down at 7677, so price is up here and most of the night’s business is not. Hold 7692 and buyers get another shot at 7705; lose it and the reoffer sits at 7691.25.
NQ is 29328, through 29254.80, the floor of August value, and over the 29292.75 overnight high. Wednesday finished at 29190.25 beneath its 29213 high after doing the most business at 29160, a strong close, but the catch is the POC still lagged. Most of the night’s business stayed at 29185 while price stretched from 29075.25 to 29292.75. Acceptance above 29254.80 puts the overnight high back in play at 29292.75. Lose 29220 and any bounce into that broken shelf is a reoffer, with the overnight value floor at 29148.
CL is 92.12, back over Wednesday’s 91.48 value ceiling and a few ticks under the 92.16 overnight POC, and that is why the big run is unfinished in both directions. Wednesday covered 88.98 to 91.49 and finished at 90.80 in the upper end of its range, then Globex tried to turn that into something bigger. The night reached 93.13 and did most of its business at 92.16 before sliding back under the print. Take 92.16 back and the reoffer runs into September value at 92.44. Lose 91.48 and the overnight breakout is gone, with Wednesday’s magnet waiting at 90.75.
GC is 4508.10, back under 4515 and 4510 after clearing the entire overnight range, still above last week’s 4495 low and under September’s 4543.70 high. Wednesday’s 4437.70 close sat under 4444.60 after opening at 4378.20, so the overnight inherited real buying instead of a dead bounce. Globex built its 4475 POC inside value from 4464.90 to 4488.30, and price has now left all of it behind. That is a real extension, but nothing in the overnight profile proves acceptance up here yet. Hold 4495 and 4543.70 is next; lose the shelf and the first reoffer sits at 4488.30.
The Calendar
Thursday, September 3 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)
- 7:30 Imports (Jul)
- 7:30 Exports (Jul)
- 7:30 Goods and Services Trade Balance (Jul)
- 7:30 Goods Trade Balance (Jul)
- 7:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 29)
- 7:30 Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)
- 7:30 Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Aug 29)
- 7:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 22)
- 7:30 Fed Waller Speaks
- 8:45 S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
- 8:45 S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug)
- 9:00 ISM Services New Orders Index (Aug)
- 9:00 ISM Services Employment Index (Aug)
- 9:00 ISM Services Prices (Aug)
- 9:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Aug)
- 9:00 ISM Services PMI (Aug)
- 9:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Aug 28)
- 10:30 8-Week Bill Auction
- 10:30 4-Week Bill Auction
- 3:30 Fed’s Balance Sheet (Sep 02)
- 3:30 Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (Sep 02)
The Plan
ES:
ES is 7704.75, leaning on 7705 after pushing through 7692, so the job is proving the overnight breakout belongs. Acceptance above 7705 opens prev-week VAH at 7727.75, then 7775 where August did the most business. Past that, 7782.50 and 7798.75 are last week’s high and August value ceiling before 7838.50, the prior-month high. Fail 7691.25 and the stack at 7690 and 7688.75 becomes the reoffer zone where three timeframes meet. Lose that shelf and 7679 pulls price toward the overnight POC at 7677, with prev-week VAL waiting at 7661.
NQ:
NQ is 29251, caught between the 29244.25 overnight ceiling and 29254.80, August’s value floor, and the catch is that it is about as comfortable as sitting on a folding chair at a school concert. Acceptance over 29254.80 opens 29292.75, the overnight high, then prev-week VAH at 29539.20. Clear that and 29600, August’s POC, leads to 29811.50 and 29931.50, last week’s high and prior-month value ceiling. Lose 29244.25 and bounces into 29220 become the reoffer, with 29148 the bottom of overnight value. Below that, 29078 is September’s value floor, 28956.50 is last week’s, and the map eventually runs out at August’s 28258.20 low.
CL:
Crude is 91.70, holding over Wednesday’s 91.48 value ceiling but sitting under the overnight POC at 92.16, and the argument belongs to whichever side can hold the edge. A push into 92.16 and 92.44 is the reoffer zone because the night already built volume there and backed away. Acceptance through that shelf gets 93.08 and 93.13, the overnight ceiling and high, where the last auction ran out of buyers. Fail 91.48 and Wednesday’s 90.80 close meets the shared POC at 90.75, which is the first real magnet below. Lose overnight value and 89.56 catches before 87.69, August’s high, then 86.69, last week’s high.
GC:
Gold is 4526.50, and the whole reason this is price discovery is last week’s 4495 low behind it and 4543.70 overhead. Acceptance above 4543.70 opens prev-week VAL at 4642, then 4687.90 where August value topped out. Clear that and 4695, last week’s POC, leads to 4728.70 before 4755, where last week and August share the same high. Lose the 4495 to 4496.60 band and it becomes the reoffer, with 4488.30 marking overnight VAH. Below that cage, 4464.90 is the overnight floor, then 4450, August’s POC, and 4438, Wednesday’s value ceiling.
The White Van Stuff
The index books are parked at or above their nearest caps, crude sits in the middle of a crowded strip, and gold has already outrun its expected band. That is useful for seeing where everybody is standing, but the profile still gets the first vote. The white van is especially weird today.
ES: ES is 7704.75, over today’s 7700 cap and under the nearby interest at 7720, a pocket tight enough to make every little poke look more important than it is. The expected band ends at 7726.25, and if the cap quits the first magnet is 7675.
NQ: NQ is 29251, already over the 29200 cap with a lot of blank paper above it. That sounds exciting right up until the opening auction decides the overnight got cute. The lower pull is the 29160 magnet beside the nearby 29150 mark, while the day’s upper edge is 29452.50.
CL: Crude is 91.70, between the nearby 91.50 below and the 92 interest overhead, the market equivalent of waiting in a hallway while everybody argues through two doors. The upper edge is already doing work at 93.09.
GC: Gold is 4526.50, already above the 4498.70 expected high. The book got left behind before breakfast. It is boxed by 4515 and 4530, with today’s cap waiting at 4550.
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