GM. ES and NQ both closed Wednesday under their own value and the night acted like it never happened, both back over the POCs Wednesday gave up and NQ all the way through Wednesday’s high. Gold found buyers right on September’s low and ran back up into the shelves it lost. Crude didn’t get the memo, sold all night and is sitting on the 100 handle building volume at the lows. I don’t have a bias on any of them, just levels where I want to watch a reaction.
The Tape
ES is back in the 7680s with the night’s volume built at 7686, right on top of 7680, the POC Wednesday gave up on the way to a close under its value. Wednesday printed a 7575 low and closed down near it, and the night dipped to 7617.50 and bought all of that back, so that’s a failed breakdown, and building value up here instead of down by the lows says the buyers aren’t only covering. What it hasn’t done is print over 7690.75, and 7698 to 7699, Wednesday’s value high and high, is Wednesday’s ceiling. Take 7699 and hold it and 7719.75, this week’s high, opens 7742.50, last week’s value high. Lose 7680 and 7662.50, the overnight value low, catches with 7659, September’s value low, under it, and under 7623.25 it’s air to 7575.
NQ is up in the 29500s, the only one of the four trading over Wednesday’s whole range after the night ran through the 29549.75 high and this week’s 29604.50 to print 29614. The night still did its business back down at 29450, next to Wednesday’s 29460 POC and September’s 29449.25. Three POCs stacked together is where this market actually traded, and a push that hasn’t built anything up here is a push until value follows it. Take 29614 back and 29668, the bottom of last week’s value, is the gate with 29742.25, last week’s POC, behind it. Lose 29546.25, Wednesday’s value high, and 29524.75 goes quick, then the 29449.25 to 29460 stack is the real test.
CL is the one that didn’t get bought, still down in the bottom of a night that sold from 102.47 and took out Wednesday’s 100.97 low and this week’s 100.79. The night built its volume right down here, a 100.65 POC with value from 100.38 to 101.61, so the sellers are doing business at the lows instead of running stops and leaving. Under it is the 100 handle with last week’s 100.05 POC sitting on it, the one shelf this whole move hasn’t tested yet. Take 100.97 back and 101.26, Wednesday’s value low, is the gate, then 101.50, where this week and September left the same POC. Lose 100.33 and 100.05 catches, and under 100 the map is thin to 95.70, last week’s value low.
GC is chopping on 4363 to 4365, the overnight value high and Wednesday’s 4364.50 low, after flushing to 4294.50 right on top of 4293, September’s low, and running back to 4379.70. Buyers showing up on the month’s low is a real failed breakdown, but the night built its volume at 4325, way under here, so this bounce is running ahead of any value behind it. Overhead, 4375.40 to 4388.20 stacks September’s, August’s, Wednesday’s and last week’s value lows under Wednesday’s close, and the 4379.70 overnight high already stalled in the middle of that. Take 4388.20 back and 4398.70, Wednesday’s value high, opens 4405, where last week did its business, right on Wednesday’s high. Lose 4363.70 and 4333, last week’s low, catches with 4325, the night’s POC, right under it.
The Calendar
Thursday, September 17 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Jobless claims, plus Philly Fed manufacturing and the whole survey stack that rides with it
- 7:30 Housing starts and building permits for August
- 9:00 Pending home sales and the leading index for August
- 9:30 Nat gas storage
- 10:30 4-week and 8-week bill auctions
- 12:00 10-year TIPS auction
- 3:30 The Fed’s balance sheet
The 7:30 stack is the only one with teeth for all four.
The Plan
ES:
Price is sitting on 7686, the overnight POC, so this is a jump ball until something moves off it. I want to see 7690.75 taken and held before longs make any sense, because 7698 to 7699, Wednesday’s value high and high, is the first thing a push runs into. Take that shelf and 7719.75, this week’s high, opens 7742.50, last week’s VAH, with 7746.75, September’s POC, right behind it. Under 7680, Wednesday’s POC, the read is short and 7662.50, the bottom of the night’s value, catches first, then 7659, September’s value low, on 7653.50, last week’s. Under that pair it’s 7623.25, Wednesday’s value low, and then the profile is empty to 7575.
NQ:
Everything on NQ runs through 29546.25, Wednesday’s value high, because holding over Wednesday’s whole range is the only thing that makes this more than a stop run. Over it, 29614, the overnight high, is the gate, and 29668, last week’s VAL, has 29742.25, where last week built its volume, behind it. The honest problem is volume, the night did its business at 29450 and nothing has built up here yet. Lose 29546.25 and 29524.75, the overnight value high, goes quick, then 29449.25 to 29460 is three POCs stacked together and the real test. Under that stack 29386.75, Wednesday’s open, sits on 29338, the overnight value low, and the map thins out to 29270, Wednesday’s value low.
CL:
Crude is working around 100.65, the POC the night built, and that’s the trigger. The read stays short while it’s under 100.97, Wednesday’s low, because the night sold through that low and built its value down here instead of bouncing off it. Take 100.97 back and 101.26, Wednesday’s value low, is the gate, then 101.50, this week’s and September’s POC on the same print. Clear 101.61, the top of the night’s value, and 102.43 to 102.47, Wednesday’s POC and the overnight high, is the ceiling. Lose 100.33 and 100.05, last week’s POC, is the last thing on the 100 handle, and under 100 the map is thin to 95.70, last week’s VAL.
GC:
The trigger is 4363.70, the overnight VAH, and gold is chopping right on it with Wednesday’s 4364.50 low sitting on top. Holding over that pair keeps the bounce off September’s low alive, but 4375.40 to 4388.20 is four value lows and Wednesday’s close stacked on each other, and the 4379.70 overnight high already stalled in there. Take 4388.20 back and 4398.70, Wednesday’s value high, is next, then 4405, where last week’s POC sits on Wednesday’s high. Lose 4363.70 and 4333, last week’s low, is the first shelf with 4325, the night’s POC, right under it. Under 4293, this week’s and September’s low, the map is blank to 4079.20, August’s low.
The White Van Stuff
The overnight ran ES and NQ right up into the top of what the options priced for today, ES on 7689 and NQ under 29620.25, so the room the book gave the upside is mostly spent before the bell. Crude is already over its band and gold is pinned on the upper edge of its, so all four are trading at the edge of the book instead of the middle of it.
ES: ES is stuck under 7689 to 7690, the top of today’s band with today’s pivot on the same spot, and 7700, the magnet, is right behind them. The nearest floor is 7675, and the band runs down to 7555 with 7600 and 7575 stacked as interest on the way.
NQ: NQ ran through 29500, the cap, overnight and is sitting under 29600, today’s cap, with the top of the band at 29620.25 right over it. Today’s pivot is back at 29460 with 29410, the magnet, under it, so everything the book has is below price.
CL: Crude is already over 100.53, today’s expected high, with 100, today’s cap, and 99.75, today’s pivot, right under it. Above price there’s nothing until 102.50 and 103, and the band runs down to 94.07.
GC: Gold is sitting on 4365.40, today’s expected high, with 4365 on the same number. Today’s pivot at 4400 and the 4390 magnet both sit above where the band ends, and the nearest floor is 4325.
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