Well, who pissed off the europoors? Wednesday opened at the highs and spent the entire day falling down the stairs, and the night kept right on going. ES and NQ both sold through Wednesday’s lows in the dark, and ES didn’t stop until it hit the price where last week and September both did their business, which is exactly where you’d expect somebody to finally show up. Crude is the only one of the four that went the other way, and gold broke the month’s low and crawled right back to it. In other news the new toy from me is nearing beta. Gexarcade coming soon. Also trading the Open on NT Live so tune in.
The Tape
ES is 7726.25, back inside last week’s territory after the night sold straight through Wednesday’s 7758.75 low and didn’t stop until 7707.25, right on 7708.75, the POC last week built, with September’s 7711.50 print sitting on top of it. When last week and the whole month leave their volume on the same few points, that’s where somebody defends, and they did. What buyers haven’t done is get back over 7743, where the night built its value before sellers took it lower, and 7743 to 7750 is where sellers already won once, so assume they’re still there. Take 7750 back and 7758.75 to 7763.25, Wednesday’s low with August’s value floor on it, is the line that says Wednesday’s selloff is done. Lose 7718.25, the floor of the night’s value, and 7708.75 to 7711.50 has to hold a second time, because under 7707.25 the map is empty to 7668.25, where last week’s value starts.
NQ is 30448.25, sitting on 30440, the print the night built its session around, after selling from 30813 to 30370 and leaving Wednesday’s whole 30657.25 to 30783.50 value area behind it. It also gave back 30586.75, August’s high, the level this week’s rally ran through on the way to 31065.50, and that’s the one that bugs me. Value built at the bottom of the night, so sellers weren’t just running stops down here, they stayed and did business. Take 30586.75 back and 30657.25, Wednesday’s value floor, is the first real test with 30689.75, the top of overnight value, right behind it. Lose 30370, the night’s low and value floor on the same tick, and there’s nothing until 30221.75, where August’s value topped out.
CL is 93.70, up near the top of an overnight value area that runs all the way from 91.26 to 93.83, and over Wednesday’s 92.18 close. It ran 94.69 in the dark, the highest crude has traded all week, and gave some of it back before Chicago woke up. The volume doesn’t back it up, because the night did its business at 91.55, way under price, so the move up here is running on thin trade. Get through 93.83 and 94.69 comes first, then 95.53, last week’s low and the floor crude fell through to start this week. Lose 92.89, Wednesday’s high, and 92 is where it lands, Wednesday’s POC and September’s on the same number, with 91.55 the night’s print under it.
GC is 4294.20, right back on 4293, the low of last week and September both, after the night broke it, flushed to 4278.30 and bought the whole thing back. Breaking the month’s low and taking it back in one night is a failed breakdown only if it sticks, and gold hasn’t cleared 4301 yet, the floor of the value the night built up at 4323.50. It’s down from 4351.40 Wednesday morning and 4558.50 earlier this month, so I’m not going to pretend one reclaimed low turns that around. Take 4301 back and 4311.50 to 4314.50, Wednesday’s low and value floor, is the shelf it has to chew through before 4320 and 4323.50, the two prints. Lose 4278.30 and the map is blank all the way to 4079.20, August’s low.
The Calendar
Thursday, September 24 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Jobless claims, initial and continuing, with building permits for August
- 9:00 New home sales for August
- 9:30 Nat gas storage
- 10:00 Kansas City Fed manufacturing
- 12:00 7-year note auction
The Plan
ES:
ES has to get back over 7743 and 7750, where the night built its value before sellers took it lower, before there’s a long worth talking about. Over that, 7758.75 to 7763.25 is the real line, Wednesday’s low with August’s value floor on it, and acceptance back inside puts 7771.25, the POC Wednesday closed near, and 7779.25, the night’s high, in play. 7787.75 to 7789, September’s value high on Wednesday’s, is the ceiling after that. Under 7719.75, last week’s high, the night’s 7718.25 value floor and 7715, last week’s value high, are one shelf, then 7708.75 to 7711.50, where last week and September both did their business, already held once at 7707.25. Lose 7707.25 and it’s air to 7668.25 and 7661, where last week’s and September’s value start.
NQ:
NQ is sitting on 30440, the night’s print, and 30586.75 is the level that matters, August’s high, the one this week’s rally ran through and the night just gave back. A breakout level that gets handed back overnight is a failed breakout until it’s reclaimed, so I’m not trusting the bounce off 30370 on its own. Take it back and 30642.75 to 30657.25, Wednesday’s low and value floor, is the first shelf, with 30689.75, the top of overnight value, sitting right on it. Clear that stack and 30740, Wednesday’s POC, and 30783.50, its value high, are next, with 30813 the night’s high above them. Lose 30370, the night’s low and value floor on one tick, and 30221.75, August’s value high, is the next real volume, with 29938.25 and 29903.75, September’s and last week’s value highs, stacked under it.
CL:
Crude is trading between 92.89, Wednesday’s high, and 93.83, the top of overnight value, and it needs to get through the upper one before the week’s bounce off 89.47 means anything. Through it, 94.69 is the night’s high, and above that 95.53, last week’s low, is where crude fell through to start this week, so that’s where last week’s sellers are waiting. 96.70 to 96.83, September’s value high and last week’s value low, sit right above it. Lose 92.89 and 92.15 to 92.18 is Wednesday’s value high with its close on it, and 92, Wednesday’s POC and September’s on the same number, is the real floor. Under 92 it’s the night’s 91.55 print and 91.12, Wednesday’s value low.
GC:
Gold is at 4294.20, back on 4293, last week’s and September’s low, and still under 4301, the floor of overnight value. One night back over the month’s low doesn’t buy gold much credit after the week it’s had, so the long case starts at 4301 and not a tick lower. Take 4301 back and 4311.50 to 4314.50, Wednesday’s low and value floor, is the first shelf, then 4318.60 to 4320, Wednesday’s close and POC, with the night’s 4323.50 print right above them. Clear those and 4330.20, Wednesday’s value high, opens 4335 to 4337, last week’s POC with the night’s value high on it. Lose 4278.30, the night’s low, and the profile is empty to 4079.20, August’s low.
The White Van Stuff
The overnight took ES and NQ through the bottom of today’s expected range and pushed gold under its floor for the day, and all three bounced right off the line, which is either the book doing its job or the white van boys running everybody’s stops on schedule. Three of the four books put their pivot or heaviest strike on the exact price Wednesday did its business at, 7770 on ES, 30740 on NQ and 92 on crude, so the book and the profile finally agree on something. Gold is the outlier, with its pivot way up at 4350, at the top of Wednesday’s range.
ES:
ES is 7726.25, in the bottom third of a band that runs from 7708.50 to 7837, and the night stopped at 7707.25, the bottom of it almost to the tick. 7700 is the floor for the day and 7735 the nearest interest over price, with 7770, the heaviest strike, and 7790, today’s pivot, stacked on Wednesday’s POC and value high.
NQ:
NQ is under 30600, its floor for the day, so the book already got run over once, and the night’s 30370 low went through 30414.25, the bottom of the band. 30400 is the nearest interest under price and 30300 the put floor, with 30740, today’s pivot, sitting right on Wednesday’s POC.
CL:
Crude is 93.70, over the 93.50 interest and between 92.50, today’s pivot, and the 95 cap, with 95.76 the top of the band. 92 is the floor for the day and the heaviest strike on the same number, and it’s Wednesday’s POC too, so the book and the profile agree on where crude’s floor is.
GC:
Gold broke 4285, today’s put floor, overnight, got to 4278.30 and came back over it, and now sits at 4294.20 right under 4300. 4268.40 is the bottom of the band with 4275 and 4260 the heavy interest around it, and 4350, today’s pivot and heaviest strike, is way up at the top of Wednesday’s range.
See you at 8am CT
If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.
I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick