Monday was one of those days we’ve seen time after time. Gapped down hard on headlines, immediately bought all night, no real dip to jump on the train. Then you either have to hate-watch the session or get run over trying to step in front of it. This move off the lows from the last day of March is starting to look like a lockout rally to new all time highs.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES opened at 6780, a gap-down from Friday’s 6855. Sellers pushed it to 6767 and that was the low. Buyers took over and never looked back. ES closed at 6923, right at the developing POC. The value area built between 6851 and 6926, so the entire day’s business was done in the upper third of the range. That’s not a rotation day. That’s a trend day up that trapped shorts at the open and ground them all afternoon.
NQ was the leader. Opened at 24980, dipped to 24905 in the overnight, then ran to 25560 for a 655-point range. Yesterday’s POC landed at 25315, dead center of the move. NQ closed above March’s high at 25318. That’s a breakout.
CL spiked to 105.63 on blockade escalation, then collapsed to 97.03 before closing at 98. Yesterday’s POC was 103.70, way up at the top where the panic buying happened. The value area was 100.23-105.13. Every time crude spikes and equities shrug it off, the market is telling you it doesn’t believe the war premium.
GC opened at the low (4626) and ground higher all day to close at 4767. Yesterday’s POC was 4748 with value between 4728 and 4762. Quiet compared to everything else. Gold is the hedge trade and the bid is still alive.
NQ: Really starting to look like a lockout isnt it?
The Overnight
ES opened Globex at 6925, right at yesterday’s VAH, and has pushed to 6945. The developing session POC is 6925, which is the same level as yesterday’s POC at 6923. Two sessions building volume at the same price. That level is now the line. Price is above value, testing higher into PPI.
NQ opened at 25594 and pushed to 25698. Price is 350 points above yesterday’s POC and trading in new territory above March’s high. The session POC at 25584 is the developing anchor. This is extension, not rotation.
CL gapped down from yesterday’s 98 close, opened at 96.75 and flushed to 95.20 before recovering to 96.46. The entire overnight session is below yesterday’s VAL at 100.23. Value has migrated 700 ticks lower in one session. The session POC at 96.80 is the new center of gravity.
GC is pressing. Gapped up from yesterday’s 4767 close, pushed to 4820, sitting at 4788. Price is above yesterday’s VAH (4762) and testing the month’s VAH at 4824. The session POC at 4796 is the developing anchor.
NFIB already printed this morning at 95.8, well below the 98.6 consensus. Small business confidence fading. Not a session mover on its own, but it adds to the picture.
The Calendar
- PPI (March), 7:30 AM CT
- Fed Goolsbee, 11:15 AM CT
- Fed Barr, 11:45 AM CT
- Fed Collins, 12:00 PM CT
- API Crude inventories, 3:30 PM CT
Rest of the week: Empire State + NAHB + EIA Crude + Beige Book (Wed). Claims + Philly Fed + Industrial Production (Thu). Fed Barkin and Waller (Fri).
The Map
ES
March POC 6967 | Session VAL 6922
Overnight high 6945 | Yesterday VAL 6851
Week VAH 6945 | Week VAL 6853
Session VAH 6936 | Prev week POC 6815
Session VWAP 6931 | Prev week VAH 6887
Session POC 6925 | Prev week VAL 6688
Yesterday POC 6923 | Monday low 6767
Two sessions of POC agreement at 6923-6925. That’s the line. Above 6936, price tests the overnight high and week VAH at 6945, then March’s POC at 6967. Below 6922, air to 6851 (yesterday’s VAL), then 6815, where last week's POC was built.
NQ
Overnight high 25698 | Yesterday VAH 25483
Session VAH 25642 | Yesterday POC 25315
Session VWAP 25612 | Prev week POC 25030
Session POC 25584 | Prev week VAH 25393
Session VAL 25564 | Prev week VAL 24909
Yesterday high 25560 | Monday low 24905
NQ is 350 points above yesterday’s POC. Extension territory. If it holds above 25584, the overnight high at 25698 is the target. If it pulls back through 25564, yesterday’s VAH at 25483 is the first real support. Yesterday’s POC at 25315 is the deeper level and lines up with March’s high.
CL
Yesterday POC 103.70 | Session POC 96.80
Yesterday VAH 105.13 | Session VWAP 96.78
Yesterday VAL 100.23 | Session VAL 96.29
Prev week POC 98.00 | Overnight low 95.20
Session VAH 97.41 | Prev week VAL 91.17
CL is below yesterday’s entire value area. The gap between session VAH at 97.41 and yesterday’s VAL at 100.23 is the low-volume zone. The previous week's POC at 98 is the intermediate reference. Below 96.29, 95.20 is the overnight floor.
GC
Prev week POC 4848 | Session VWAP 4796
Prev week VAH 4855 | Session VAL 4785
Month VAH 4824 | Yesterday VAH 4762
Overnight high 4820 | Yesterday POC 4748
Session VAH 4805 | Yesterday VAL 4728
GC pressing the month’s VAH at 4824. Last week’s POC at 4848 is the next target, loaded with two-way volume from that week’s 4626-4888 range. Below 4785, pullback to yesterday’s VAH at 4762 then yesterday’s POC at 4748.
What I’m Watching
The PPI reaction is the entire session. If the number comes in soft, ES has room to test 6950 and the March POC at 6967. NQ could run to 25750+. If it’s hot, confirming the energy price bleed-through, fade targets are 6900 ES and 25483 NQ (yesterday’s VAH).
CL: Does the 100 level hold as resistance? Every push above 100 has been sold. Crude is below yesterday’s entire value area and value is migrating lower. If 100 breaks and holds, the whole tape changes.
GC: Testing the month’s VAH at 4824. A clean break opens up 4845-4848, where last week’s POC sits. Rejection here means pullback to 4785-4748. Gold moves on headlines, but the levels tell you where to look.
The White Van Stuff
The options positioning on equities is about as bullish as it gets. The call-buying crowd is leaning in hard on both ES and NQ. Volatility is priced low despite the monitoring the Middle East situation. The gamma people are pricing in resolution, not escalation.
ES expected daily range is plus or minus 0.93%, roughly 6859-6987. Same-day interest is heaviest at 6950 on the upside and 6825 on the downside. The broader options ceiling sits at 7000 with the floor at 6500. Heavy interest clusters at 6900, 6875, and 6925. The 6925 cluster sitting right on today’s POC is worth noting.
NQ expected move is plus or minus 1.17%, range 25244-25843. NQ is already above its same-day cap at 25600. Heavy interest overhead at 25700 and 25750.
CL expected range is 92.62-105.54. A 13% expected move. The 30-day volatility on crude is over 100%. That’s not a market, that’s a hurricane. Size accordingly.
GC expected range 4690-4845. Same-day interest caps at 4800. Above 4800 gets interesting. The expected move high at 4845 lines up with last week’s POC at 4848. When two different data sets point to the same level, pay attention.
Crude and Gold
CL is the barometer. Monday’s spike to 105+ and crash to 97 built a profile with the POC at 103.70, way up where the panic buying happened. Today’s value is migrating 700 ticks lower. The 100 level and yesterday’s VAL at 100.23 are the overhead resistance. Below, the session POC at 96.80 is the developing center of gravity, with 95 as the next floor. The volatility in this name is insane. Don’t try to be a hero.
GC is pressing higher. Session POC at 4796, price at 4788, testing the month’s VAH at 4824 and last week’s POC at 4848. The weekly value area is 4722-4793, so price is pushing above the week’s range. If the standoff escalates, gold runs toward 4848 and higher. If a framework holds, gold fades back into the week’s value at 4793-4748.
What Could Go Wrong
ES 6922 breaks (session VAL). If PPI is hot and the session value area fails, it’s 6900, then 6851 (yesterday’s VAL), then 6815 (prev week POC). That’s a 100-point flush.
NQ 25564 breaks (session VAL). Below that, 25483 (yesterday’s VAH), then 25315 (yesterday’s POC). The staircase has big gaps.
CL reclaims 100 and holds. If yesterday’s VAL at 100.23 flips back to support, the “value migrating lower” thesis is dead and the war premium is back. That drags equities lower.
The Plan
ES: If ES holds 6925 and builds above 6936, targets are 6950, March POC at 6967, then 6987. If 6922 breaks, it’s 6900, 6851, 6825, 6815. Two sessions of POC agreement at 6925 make that the line.
NQ: If NQ holds 25584 and clears 25698, the next stops are 25750, 25843. If 25564 fails, it’s 25483, 25400, 25315, 25030. NQ is extended but leading. Respect the momentum.
CL: If CL holds 96.80 and reclaims 97.41, the path is 98, 100, then 100.23 (yesterday’s VAL). If 96.29 fails, 95.20, 95, 92.62. Don’t overcook this one.
GC: If GC holds 4796 and clears 4820, targets are 4824, 4845, 4848. If 4785 fails, 4762, 4748, 4728.
Trust your prep. Trade your levels. The rest is noise.
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