The Game Plan: Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Even when something is happening, always remember that nothing ever happens. I don't make the rules.
Equities ripped overnight while I wasn’t paying attention. Seems like we got a nice lift from the buyers on a few circle jerk big tech deals. Nothing like those circular rounds of financing. As someone who used to help build these “partnerships,” I can’t help but laugh at how we keep getting bounces from this. In other news, Tim “Apple” announced that John Ternus will be his successor at Apple. Maybe we will finally see some innovation for the first time in years.
Gold looks a bit unhappy. Crude flushed to 85 and ripped right back. And none of that is the thing that ends up mattering today, because it never is on a Tuesday. I’ve been bullish equities since the last day of March, but price discovery at all-time highs is still my least favorite tape to trade. We’ll see how Today goes.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES. Slow, ugly, sideways. Range was 38 points top to bottom. Yesterday’s POC settled at 7137.5 with VAH 7149.75 and VAL 7134.75. Close 7148.25. Classic Monday where price did the bare minimum and nobody who watched all day made anything worth talking about. Session built a tight 15-point value area which is about as tight as this tape gets.
NQ. Same story, bigger numbers. Range 257 points, POC 26730, VAH 26763, VAL 26662, close 26745.25. Bounced exactly off the overnight low from Thursday at the wick, and that was the whole setup. If you caught it, great. If you didn’t, welcome to the club.
CL. Cooperated with almost nothing. POC 87.35, VAH 87.76, VAL 86.46, close 86.88. Stayed pinned to a 2-point range. Today’s overnight flush to 85.67 happened after the cash close.
GC. Finally gave up a little. POC 4835, VAH 4844.3, VAL 4824.3, close 4834.80. Balanced on the session but the close near the highs set up a giveback that we’re now in.
The Overnight
ES. Ripped. Overnight high 7183 hit just under the same-day call ceiling at 7170 which it sliced right through. Low 7154.5 held right on yesterday’s VAH. Net gain 34 points from the cash close. This is the kind of gap that either gets worked off into the open or extends. No clean read yet.
NQ. Sent it. Overnight range 26797.25 to 26901.75, up 152 points from cash close. Price is sitting right on top of the same-day call ceiling at 26800 which was the line everybody was watching. Last week’s prev week high was 26883, so we’ve taken that out overnight.
CL. Flushed to 85.67 and fully recovered. Overnight high 87.58, current 87.28. A bounce off the put floor at 85 that held every test overnight. Whoever sold the break got run over.
GC. Gave back. Overnight high 4815.7, low 4790.8, currently 4811.2. We sliced through yesterday’s VAL at 4824.3 and the same-day put floor at 4800 held. Barely. Gold’s long crowd is still loaded at +28% of open interest, so every dip here gets bought until it doesn’t.
The Map
Price opened above yesterday’s entire value area on a gap. Session VWAP 7161.84 is the first checkpoint on a pullback. Overnight low 7154.50 is the line that matters. If that holds, buyers kept the gap. If it breaks and Yesterday VAH 7149.75 fails, price is back inside yesterday’s value area and Yesterday POC 7137.50 becomes the magnet.
Overnight high 26901.75 is one tick under the round number at 26900. Overnight low 26797.25 is the line that matters. If 26797 holds on a pullback, buyers kept the gap and 26900 is back in play. If 26797 breaks and Session VWAP 26819 fails, the move back into yesterday’s range targets VAH 26763 first, then Yesterday POC 26730.
We flushed right to 85.67 overnight and bounced. Above 87.35 Yesterday POC and this is a retest-and-continue with 87.76 Yesterday VAH as the next gate. Below 86.88 Yesterday Close and the 85.67 overnight low is back on the table.
First time in a while gold has opened below yesterday’s value area. Current 4811.20 is literally yesterday’s swing low to the tick, and it sits on top of Prev Week POC 4815 and Session VWAP 4813.70 as a cluster. If this zone breaks, Prev Week VAL 4800.70 and the 4790.80 overnight low are the fast targets. If it holds, buyers are defending and we chop back toward Yesterday POC 4835.
What I’m Watching
ES. Is 7170 support or is it ceiling. The same-day call ceiling sits there, and we’re 12 ticks above it. A clean break and hold above 7170 means the overnight rally has legs. A rejection and close below it means the Retail Sales print gets sold.
NQ. The 26900 round number. Price tagged 26901.75 overnight, one tick above. If we trade above 26900 into cash open, the next obvious level is 27000. If we roll off 26900 and break below 26800, back in the range and it’s just Monday 2.0.
CL. Whether the 85 flush was the session low or a warning shot. A second test today that holds is the reversal. A second test that fails opens 83.11 where the expected range bottom sits and then there’s a lot of air below.
GC. 4811 to the tick. Holds, buyers still in charge. Breaks, bears get their first real shot in a week.
The White Van Stuff
ES. The upside ceiling sits way up at 7200 with the same-day cap at 7170 which we’re already trading above. Standard floor is 6500 which isn’t in play today. Same-day put floor 7050. Expected range 7090 to 7205 and we opened on the top edge of it. The magnet is way down at 7035 but the same-day pivot sits at 7120, which is the more relevant short-term draw. Heavy interest stacks at 7200, 7175, 7162, 7138, 7081. That 7162 to 7138 cluster is the zone that decides whether the gap holds or fills.
NQ. The full upside ceiling sits down at 26500 and we blew through it weeks ago. Same-day cap 26800. Same-day put floor 26560. Expected range 26421 to 27076 and we’re sitting at 26897.75, right under the top edge. Heavy interest stacks at 26941, 26867, 26804, 26707 and the cluster from 26750 to 26900 is where the fight happens today. Vol reading is elevated relative to the last two months.
CL. Crude still has the widest vol reading of the four. Expected range 85.19 to 94.03. Same-day cap 92.25. Same-day magnet 88.92 is the upside draw if we push. Magnet level 87.13 is right here and that’s the gravity center. Same-day put floor 85.08 is what held every test overnight. Lose 85 and the 83 interest cluster is the next zone, with 82 sitting under that as a whole different day.
GC. Upside ceiling way up at 4982 (not a level today). Same-day cap 4862 is the real ceiling. Same-day magnet sits at 4803.13, which is why 4811 matters so much, we’re one flush from the pivot. Same-day put floor 4783. Expected range 4739 to 4884. Gold’s long crowd is heavily loaded, and that tends to mean dips get bought until they don’t.
The Calendar
- 7:15 AM CT: ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 7:30 AM CT: Retail Sales (MAR), the headline print 60 minutes before open
- 7:55 AM CT: Redbook YoY
- 9:00 AM CT: Business Inventories (FEB), Pending Home Sales (MAR), Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing
- 1:30 PM CT: Fed Waller speech
- 3:30 PM CT: API Crude Oil Stock Change
Retail Sales is the headline pre-market print. Warsh confirmation hearing adds tape risk across the morning.
What Could Go Wrong
The overnight rally in equities gets sold immediately off the Retail Sales number and we spend the rest of the day giving it all back. NQ fails the 26800 same-day call ceiling on the way down and the whole gap fills in a hurry.
Crude double-tests 85 and cracks. The 85 level has been structural for three sessions and a third test that fails has cascade potential down to 83 and then the 82 options interest.
Warsh confirmation hearing produces an actual market-moving comment on policy and bonds do the talking. After hearing from a few Macro folks who are way smarter than me, Im curious to see what comes out of the fed over the next year.
The Plan
ES. Overnight Low 7154.50 is the line. Hold above 7154.50 with overnight high 7183 as the first target, and air above that for any upside continuation. Break 7154.50 with sellers, first stop Yesterday VAH 7149.75, then Yesterday Close 7148.25 and Yesterday POC 7137.50. Below that Yesterday VAL 7134.75 and Yesterday Low 7121.50. Below 7121 the whole overnight gap is gone and Prev Week POC 7060.50 is the next real zone.
NQ. Overnight Low 26797.25 is the line. Hold 26797 with overnight high 26901.75 as the first target, and 26900 round number just above it. Break 26797 and Session VWAP 26819 flips to resistance, first stop Yesterday VAH 26763, then Yesterday Close 26745.25 and Yesterday POC 26730. Below that Yesterday VAL 26662 and Yesterday Low 26569.
CL. Yesterday POC 87.35 is the pivot. Hold above 87.35 with the 87.58 overnight high as the first target, then Yesterday VAH 87.76 and Prev Week POC 88.95 as the extension. Break 87.35 and lose 87, first stop Session VWAP 86.64, then Yesterday VAL 86.46 and Yesterday Close 86.88. Below that Overnight Low 85.67 and Yesterday Low 85.44. If 85.44 goes, the whole structure from last week is in play.
GC. 4811.20 Yesterday Low is the line to the tick. Hold here and buyers come back, first target Session VWAP 4813.70, then Overnight High 4815.70 and Yesterday VAL 4824.30. Above that Yesterday Close 4834.80 and Yesterday POC 4835.00. Break 4811 with sellers and Prev Week VAL 4800.70 is the first step down, then Overnight Low 4790.80 is the cascade. Below 4790 this turns into a different kind of day.
Keep Calm. Be Patient. Let’s see if those buyers are still hunting every dip bears give them
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Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Trade at your own risk.
Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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