The Game Plan — Tuesday, April 7, 2026
The Game Plan: Tuesday, April 7, 2026
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES. Outside day. Opened 6590, took out the prior session low at 6567, then ripped 94 points to 6661 and held the high. Closed 6647.25, up 43.50. The whole session built value between 6628 and 6648 with the heaviest volume right at 6638. That’s a clean trending close. No real damage, plenty of fuel.
NQ. Outside day, 470 points of range. Low 23981.50, high 24452.25, closed 24353.25. Heaviest volume at 24305 with value from 24254 to 24368. Same character as ES. Sellers tried, got run over, big tech bid all session.
CL. Trended up all session. Range 109.50 to 115.48, closed 112.21. Heaviest volume at 111.00. Crude has been on a tear. Last week the heavy volume was around 102, now we’re trading 112. Different animal. Honest to god, my read last month was that crude grinds around 100 forever and that aged like milk.
GC. Inside day. Range 4626 to 4724, closed 4685.60. Value 4673 to 4722, heaviest at 4692.50. Gold is digesting after that ugly month it had.
The Overnight
ES traded up to 6667 in Globex (above yesterday’s high), got smoked back down to 6602, sitting 6608. So the overnight told us nobody wanted price up there, and now we’re testing the bottom of yesterday’s value. Globex built its heaviest volume at 6620. Holding 6602 keeps yesterday’s structure intact. Lose it and the 6580s become real.
NQ did the same thing harder. Globex high 24422, current 24161.50. Down 184 from the close. Tested above the prior session, rejected, came right back through value. Sitting near 24160 which is right at the lower edge of yesterday’s value (24254 was the bottom).
CL kept going. Globex 111.28 to 116.29, sitting 116. Building above last week’s value.
GC pulled back. Globex 4648 to 4721, sitting 4678. Hugging the prior day heavy volume area.
The Calendar
Today (all times CT): ADP weekly at 7:15, Durable Goods Feb at 7:30, Fed speakers Goolsbee at 11:35 and Jefferson at 4:50, Consumer Credit at 2:00. Durable Goods is the only one with real teeth this morning.
Wednesday: EIA crude inventories at 9:30 matters for crude. FOMC minutes at 1:00.
Thursday: Core PCE for Feb plus GDP Final and jobless claims, all at 7:30. Then Friday is the meaty one. CPI and Core CPI at 7:30 Friday morning is the catalyst that matters this week.
Today and tomorrow are positioning days ahead of CPI Friday. Don’t be a hero before Friday’s number.
The Map
ES
LEVEL PRICE WHY
Globex high 6667 Overnight failure point
Yesterday high 6661 RTH top
Yesterday VAH 6647.75 Top of yesterday’s value
Yesterday POC 6638 Heaviest volume yesterday
Weekly VWAP 6635.67 Average price for the week
Yesterday VAL 6628 Bottom of value, first defense
Globex POC 6620 Where overnight built
Last week POC 6610 Last week’s heavy area
Globex/week low 6602 The week’s floor so far
Yesterday low 6567 RTH floor
NQ
LEVEL PRICE WHY
Yesterday high 24452.25 RTH top
Globex high 24422 Overnight failure
Yesterday VAH 24368 Top of value
Globex POC 24350 Overnight balance
Yesterday POC 24305 Heaviest yesterday
Weekly VWAP 24288 Average for the week
Yesterday VAL 24254 Bottom of value
Monthly VWAP 24156 Bigger picture VWAP, current price right here
Globex low 24133 Overnight floor
Yesterday low 23981.50 RTH floor, big spot
ES is sitting on its value low and the overnight Globex floor. 6602 is the line. Hold it and yesterday’s structure is intact. Lose it and there’s air down to 6580s, then the 6567 spot. NQ is in worse shape because we’re already through value at 24254. The 23981 area is the line in the sand for NQ.
CL
LEVEL PRICE WHY
Globex high 116.29 Overnight high
Last week’s top 113.97 Where the breakout came from
Week POC 113.00 Weekly heavy volume
Weekly VWAP 112.70 Average for the week
Monthly VWAP 107.34 Way below, big picture
GC
LEVEL PRICE WHY
Yesterday high 4724 Top of range
Yesterday VAH 4722 Top of value
Week POC 4698.10 Weekly heavy volume
Yesterday POC 4692.50 Heaviest yesterday
Weekly VWAP 4683.97 Right where price is sitting
Yesterday VAL 4673.70 Bottom of value
Yesterday low 4626.20 RTH floor
Crude is in its own rotation 5 points above last week’s high. Pullbacks are the only thing worth waiting for, chasing 116 here is asking to get hit. Gold is sitting on the weekly VWAP with the value low at 4673 and value high at 4722. That’s the box for today.
What I’m Watching
ES is the cleanest read. Overnight tested above, failed, came back to yesterday’s value low. If 6602 holds and price gets back inside 6628 with some conviction, the bullish read continues and we work back toward 6647 and 6661. Lose 6602 cleanly and the air pocket down to the 6580s opens up. Buyers have to defend the 6567 spot if it gets there. Watching for longs into 6602 as long as it holds, but only with confirmation. Don’t catch the falling knife. Let it base.
NQ is in worse shape than ES this morning. Already through yesterday’s value low, sitting near the bottom of the overnight range. The 23981 area is the line. Hold it and you can argue for a snapback. Lose it and the 23800s come fast. NQ has been the weak hand this whole rotation, no reason to assume it leads off the lows.
CL is going one direction right now. Trading 116, weekly VWAP 112.70, monthly VWAP 107. A pullback into 113 or 114 is the spot to look at it again. Chasing 116 is dumb. Wait for it to breathe.
GC is in a wider chop. Sitting on the weekly VWAP. Watching whether 4673 holds for a push back into the 4700s, or whether 4626 comes into play. No strong read here. We’ll see.
The White Van Stuff
The options stuff is in the room with us. ES is set up where moves can get amplified both ways, that flip level is right at 6605 which is basically where price is sitting. The market is pricing roughly 80 ES handles either side for the day. The big clusters of options interest above us are stacked between 6670 and 6730, so if ES gets going to the upside that band is where it’ll get sticky. Below us, the next real spot of options interest is 6600, then a big air pocket down to 6550. That’s why 6602 holding matters. The structure and the options data line up.
NQ is set up the opposite way: the options crowd is leaning long and swings are getting squashed by the positioning. The market is pricing about 350 NQ handles either side. The flip level is 24290 and we’re already below it. The next floor the options crowd cares about is 24000, which is right where yesterday’s session bottomed out. Two reasons to watch that line, not one.
The big speculator crowd on the S&P side was leaning short heading into this week (data from March 31). Nasdaq specs were the other way, leaning long. Whoever’s wrong gets squeezed if this rip continues.
The market is pricing daily moves around 80 ES points and 350 NQ points. Don’t be a hero on size. Quarter size on the first attempt, scale in only if the structure confirms.
Crude and Gold
Crude is the trade. Sitting at 116 above last week’s high. The upper boundary the options crowd is pricing today is around 120, the lower boundary around 104. The options market is pricing this thing for huge daily swings. The level where the heaviest call selling sits is 110, and we blew through it. The 0DTE level above is 115, also through it. When you blow through those spots, you’re in air. Pullback into 113 to 114 is where I’d look long again. Above 112.70 the bulls have it. Wrong if 112 breaks and we lose the weekly heavy volume area.
Gold is sleepier. Trading 4678. The flip level for gold is 4695 and we’re 0.22% from it. That’s basically right on top of it. Above 4695, the options crowd dampens moves. Below it, they amplify. The big level above where call sellers stack up is way out at 5000. Below us the put concentration is at 4400. So today’s game is whether the prior day’s heavy volume area holds and we push back to 4700, or whether 4626 gets tested. No strong lean here. Watching 4673 as the line.
What Could Go Wrong
ES loses 6602 and pops the air pocket. That puts the 6580s in play and forces a test of 6567. The whole outside day from yesterday becomes a head fake.
NQ loses 23981 cleanly. There’s nothing structural until 23800, and then the previous week’s lower value at 23659. NQ moves fast on a flush day. Don’t be the one trying to defend a long if 23981 breaks with volume.
ES rips back above yesterday’s heavy volume area at 6638 and the morning’s selling becomes a head fake the other way. Overnight high 6667 tested again. Double tops can break. Don’t fade the move just because you’re frustrated about being wrong.
The Plan
Watching 6602 on ES and 23981 on NQ, hold those and the snapback into yesterday’s value is on. Crude is the cleanest trend but chasing 116 is dumb, wait for the pullback into 113 or 114. Gold is a coin flip at the flip level, no strong lean.
As always watch for the rogue Commander in Chief statement. The guy can tweet from the toilet at 3am and run the market 50 points. Stops in. Size manageable.
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Thank you Nick! Have a great sesh!
Thanks Nick