Gm. Spicy overnight that started when Stowe and me did Vibecheck last night on youtube. ES started the night inside last week’s range and ended it underneath the entire thing, and NQ came with it down to 29680.75. Crude went the complete other way and tagged 85.68 while that was happening. I lean short the indexes while ES stays under 7742.25, and I am not dumb enough to stand in front of crude this morning. Every once in a while I get a weird DM thats “mean” one of these days i’ll just respond with this gif. Be safe. Have fun.
The Tape
ES sold Monday from 7803 down to 7766 and closed 7768.75, underneath its own value low at 7776. The night opened right on that close, poked 7770.75, then spent the rest of the session building value between 7720.50 and 7741.50 with the volume settling at 7730. It trades 7732.50 now, under last week’s low at 7738 and under August value at 7742.25. Bulls need 7741.50 back to argue anything, and above that 7766 and Monday’s 7776 value low come into play. Bears have 7716.50 as the trigger, and under it there is nothing structural until 7611 July VAH and 7546 July POC.
NQ opened Monday at 30219.25, never got going, and closed 30091 right on its value low at 30079. The night gave it one push to 30121.25 and then took it apart, running to 29680.75 and leaving overnight value stretched from 29732.50 up to 30032.25. It trades 29703.25, outside that value to the downside and under August POC at 29750. The bull case starts with 29732.50 back overhead, then 29880 prev week POC and 29982 where the night did most of its business. The bear case is 29680.75 giving way into 29600 July POC, 29540 prev week VAL, and 29466 August VAL.
CL ran Monday from 82.09 to 84.88 and closed 84.65 near the top, a trend day with value dragged up to 82.69 through 84.86. The night never gave any of it back, opening 84.98, holding 84.61 as the floor, and printing 85.68 before settling into value between 84.90 and 85.30. It trades 85.33, above the 84.05 August VAH, with 84.50 July POC the first real support underneath. Bulls want 85.68 taken out with 86.87 the August high above it. Bears need 84.61 to fail, and under that 84.05 August VAH and 83.74 week VAH are the first two stops.
GC rallied Monday off 4433.40 to 4486.50 and closed 4475.70, building value from 4461.40 to 4485.10. The night took it up to 4493 and then walked it all the way back to 4441.40, parking value between 4442.50 and 4460.80. It trades 4447, under Monday’s value low and just under 4450, the price that is simultaneously the week POC, last week’s POC, and the August POC. Bulls need 4460.80 and 4461.40 reclaimed before 4471.70 week VAH and 4493 matter again. Bears want 4441.40 gone, which opens 4439.60 week VAL, 4422.30 week low, and 4403.60 prev week VAL.
The Calendar
7:15 AM CT. ADP weekly employment change
7:30 AM CT. Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import and Export Prices, NY Fed Services Activity
8:15 AM CT. Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Production
9:00 AM CT. Pending Home Sales
3:30 PM CT. API crude stock change
The Plan
ES:
7741.50 is the line, the top of overnight value with August’s value low stacked on it at 7742.25. Above 7741.50 the first work is 7743.50 prev week VAL, then 7766 where Monday bottomed and the night opened, then 7770.75 the overnight high. Reclaim 7770.75 and Monday’s 7776 value low and 7794.25 POC come back on the board. Below 7741.50 it stays heavy and 7730 overnight POC is the first thing to lose, then 7720.50 overnight VAL. The whole read breaks at 7716.50, the overnight low and the low of the week, and under it there is no structure worth naming until 7611 July VAH and 7546 July POC.
NQ:
29732.50 is the line and NQ already lost it overnight. Above 29732.50 the reclaim starts with 29750 August POC, then 29880 prev week POC, then 29982 where the overnight volume actually sat. Take 29982 and 30032.25 overnight VAH and 30079 Monday’s value low come back. Below where it trades, the only thing holding the tape up is 29680.50, the low of the week set overnight. Lose 29680.50 and there is air underneath into 29600 July POC, then 29540 prev week VAL and 29466 August VAL.
CL:
85.30 is the line, the top of the value the night built. Above 85.30 crude works the 85.40 opening high and then 85.68, the overnight high and the only thing standing between here and the August high at 86.87. Clear 85.68 and there is nothing structural until 86.87, and behind that 88.46 July VAH. Below 85.30 the first stop is 85.00 overnight POC, then 84.90 overnight VAL. The trigger that ends the run is 84.61, the overnight low and the price Monday’s rally launched from, and under it sits 84.50 July POC, 84.05 August VAH, 83.74 week VAH and 83.48 prev week VAH.
GC:
4450 is the whole thing on gold, the week POC, last week’s POC, and the August POC all printing at the same price, and it trades just underneath. Above 4450 the reclaim runs 4460.80 overnight VAH and 4461.40 Monday’s value low together, then 4471.70 week VAH and 4473.10 prev week VAH stacked, then 4474 Monday POC. Get through those and 4485.10 and the 4493 overnight high are live again. Below 4450 the first support is 4442.50 overnight VAL and 4441.40 the overnight low. Lose 4441.40 and it runs 4439.60 week VAL, 4422.30 week low, and 4403.60 prev week VAL, under which the map is empty down to 4314.90 August VAL and 4276.20 July high.
The White Van Stuff
The crowd is packed into tech and semis at the top of their one-year range, and packed into crude almost as hard. Bonds are the mirror image, sitting at the very bottom of that same range with the position flipped negative. Gold is the only one of the group sitting in the middle of its own.
ES
ES is trading underneath today’s put floor at 7750 before the bell, which flips it from support to the first thing in the way. The magnet at 7755 and today’s pivot at 7780 are both overhead now. It sits 7732.50, still inside the expected band.
NQ
NQ opened the morning under today’s expected low at 29734.01, the loudest thing on its options map. Everything else is overhead, including today’s put floor at 30000 and the magnet at 29990. The only level underneath is the 29500 put floor.
CL
Crude cleared today’s cap at 85 overnight and trades above it, the one name on this list where the crowd is on the wrong side. Today’s expected high is 86.68 and the structural cap does not show up until 90. Underneath, today’s pivot and today’s put floor stack together at 82.
GC
Gold’s nearest level above is 4450 and it trades right underneath it. Today’s expected high is 4535 and today’s expected low is 4411.20, so there is room on both sides before anything gets decided. The magnet sits down at 4340.
I want to touch grass but my grass is dead on the inside and outside like me. Heres to not going back to the 9-5.
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