The Game Plan: Tuesday, August 4, 2026

"If you look here on the chart, you can see we are so back."

GM Friends. Monday brought back my most hated types of equity trends. If you didnt catch an early long, you probably chased shorts and got run over. If you fade a slow trend Monday, you’re usually going to have a bad time. Fast forward and Palantir raised its full-year numbers after the close just to keep the party going. ES spent the night poking at July’s old ceiling as it owed it money, and NQ is pressing the top of its overnight range this morning, while crude’s bounce got sold at the first real stack of levels it hit. I’m with the push as I talked about on Sunday. We tested lower, rejected, now we rotate to the other side.

The Tape

ES opened Monday at 7546.25, right on the POC July spent a month building, and drove all session to close 7628.5 on a 7629 POC with value 7598.5 to 7637.25. The overnight opened 7631, never traded below 7629, and tagged 7650. It sits 7644.75, above July’s 7632 ceiling, with nothing on the profile overhead. Hold 7635.75, the overnight VAL, and this is price discovery; lose it and 7629 is the catch, Monday’s POC and the overnight low on one print, with 7598.5 Monday’s base beneath.