Crude is the only chart worth a situation monitoring this morning, while everything else sits on its hands. Fresh strikes and a shut Strait of Hormuz blew oil through 80 overnight, equities drifted lower, and gold got sold into a shooting war it is supposed to love. The whole board is frozen for a 7:30 inflation print, and then the new guy at the Fed is grabbing the mic an hour later, so nobody is committing until the numbers land. CPI this am if we still care about inflation. Be safe out there, equities are still in this balance and seem a bit lost!
The Tape
ES ran up to 7610 early Monday and leaked the whole thing back, closing 7563 on a 7563.5 POC with value stacked 7553.75 to 7593, a session that gave away its highs. The overnight drifted a tight 7544 to 7575 and sits 7555 now, back under Monday’s POC and pinned to 7547, the shelf June built its volume on. Reclaim 7563.5 the POC and 7575 the overnight high and 7588.5 last week’s POC opens, then 7593 Monday’s upper value. Lose 7544 the overnight low and 7546 the developing value floor, and 7532 is the gate, where last week and July both bottomed their value. It sits 7555, on the June line.
NQ was the ugly one Monday, tagging 29752 and getting sold all day to close 29466 near the low on a 29500 POC. The overnight bought it back, running from 29490 up to 29670 and sitting 29630, pressed right on 29663.75, Monday’s value ceiling. Through that and 29670 the overnight top, 29700 June’s POC is the first real test, then 29752 Monday’s high with 29900 July’s POC above. Lose 29600 the developing POC and 29500 the Monday POC gives, then 29469 the value low and 29393 Monday’s low. It sits 29630, nose against the top of yesterday’s range.
CL went vertical Monday, running from 73.43 to 78.46 and closing 77.66, a trend day that left its 74.7 POC far behind. The overnight kept pushing, gapping to 79.78 and tagging 81.27 before settling to sit 79.76 on top of the whole range, today’s volume building at 80.3 over a 79.55 shelf. Above 80.3 and 81.27 the overnight peak it is thin air, nothing built overhead until June’s spike zone. Below 78.83 the overnight base, 78.46 Monday’s high flips to support, then 77.56 the value high and 74.7 the Monday POC underneath. It sits 79.76, the highest crude has printed in weeks.
GC pushed to 4075.5 Monday and got sold all day, closing 4009.3 near the low on a 4015 POC. The overnight steadied it, holding 4020 to 4040 and sitting 4036.9 back at Monday’s 4033 value, and this is the chart the safe-haven bid is supposed to lift and instead keeps getting sold, a full shelf under last week’s 4111. Through 4039.5 the value high and 4040 the overnight top opens 4066 July’s floor, then 4075.5 Monday’s high. Below 4020 the overnight base, 4015 Monday’s POC gives, then 3996 and 3993 the value base and session low, with air to 3975 June’s low under it. It sits 4036.9, back at Monday’s upper value.
The Calendar
Tuesday, July 14 (all times CT):
- 7:30 CPI, the print the whole tape is frozen for
- 9:00 Fed Chair Warsh testifies on the Hill
- 11:40 Fed’s Barr, then Goolsbee at 12:00, Cook at 12:30, Bowman at 1:55
- 3:30 API crude inventories after the close
CPI at 7:30 and a brand-new Fed Chair on the mic at 9:00 back to back are the whole morning. Everything before the open is just positioning for those two.
The Plan
ES:
ES is pinned to the June shelf at 7547, the price the whole prior month built its volume on, with 7555 the developing session sitting on top of it. Above 7558 today’s POC the first job is 7563.5 Monday’s POC and close, then 7575 the overnight top. Reclaim those and 7588.5 last week’s POC opens, then 7593 Monday’s value high and 7604 last week’s value ceiling, with 7610 Monday’s high the extension. Below 7546 the developing value base and 7544 the overnight low, the tape gives to 7532, where last week and July stack their lows. Lose that and there is air to 7469 last week’s low, then 7451 June’s floor.
NQ:
NQ has repair to do after Monday’s flush, sitting 29630 with the overnight bounce pressing 29663.75, Monday’s value ceiling. Above 29670 the overnight high, 29700 June’s POC is the first real test, then 29752 Monday’s high, with 29900 July’s POC the level that says the flush is done. Hold above 29600 today’s POC and the bounce keeps its base. Below it, 29500 Monday’s POC gives, then 29469 Monday’s value floor and 29393 Monday’s low. Under the low there is 29369 the July shelf, then 29350 where last week and the month built their heaviest volume.
CL:
Crude is the only chart moving and the game is whether it holds the breakout. 79.55 the developing value base over 78.83 the overnight base is the shelf, and above it the run stays alive with 80.3 today’s POC and 81.27 the overnight peak the first targets. Through that peak there is open air, nothing built overhead until June’s spike zone. Below 78.83 and 78.46 Monday’s high, the gap starts to fill toward 77.56 Monday’s value top, then 74.7 Monday’s POC where the volume actually sits. Under that it is 73.44 Monday’s value low, then 72, where last week and July both parked their volume.
GC:
Gold has to prove Monday’s fade was an overreaction. 4033 Monday’s value ceiling is the shelf it is testing this morning, and clearing 4040 the overnight high puts 4066 July’s floor back in reach, then 4075.5 Monday’s high. Above there, 4097 last week’s floor is the proof the down move got repaired. Below 4024 today’s POC and 4020 the overnight low, 4015 Monday’s POC gives, then 3996 Monday’s value base and 3993 the session low. Under the low there is air to 3975 June’s low.
The White Van Stuff
This is a headline tape, not a yields-and-dollar tape, and the positioning is chasing crude while it runs away from everything else. Oil cleared its entire options structure overnight, so its whole cage now sits underneath spot as support, while the equity books stayed tight and quiet into the print. Gold’s protection is stacked above a market that keeps sinking away from it, the one book on the screen pricing fear that price refuses to pay for.
ES: The equity band is tight, priced for a quiet session if the number lets it be one. Price sits under the 7630 same-day cap with the bulk of the interest stacked overhead into the 7700 structural cap, and the 7550 magnet is the shelf right under it. The put floor for the day is 7540 with the expected low at 7496.
NQ: NQ carries the wider book, priced for more than three times the broad index’s move. Price sits between the 29540 magnet under it and the 30000 same-day cap overhead, with a thin ceiling until that round number. The downside interest builds from 29300 down to the 29000 put floor, the expected day running 28986 to 29965.
CL: Crude’s book is the loudest on the board and price already blew through the top of it. The old 78 cap flipped to support underneath, and the whole structure from there down to 72 now sits below spot, so that shelf is the floor. Overhead there is almost nothing until the 81 same-day cap, then the 82 expected high and air to 83.5.
GC: Gold’s structure is stacked above a market falling away from it, and price just nudged over its 4025 same-day cap. The 4066 expected high and the 4095 magnet sit overhead into a wall of interest from 4100 up, and the 4020 pivot is the line the fade keeps pressing. Under it the real interest thins to the 4000 floor, then 3950 and the 3945 expected low.
Trust your prep. See you at the top.
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