Ten straight nights of strikes had crude poking 90 and the long bond selling off, and that combo dragged the indexes lower into Monday’s close. Then the overnight caught a whiff of a ceasefire proposal, oil started bleeding back toward the low 80s, and both indexes walked right back up into the value they gave away Monday. Gold picked the same night to finally act like the safety trade, catching a bid after weeks of getting left for dead under 4000. My lean is simple: an overnight reclaim means nothing until the cash session holds it, crude keeps leaking premium until the headlines say otherwise. Google and Tesla earnings Tomorrow. Balance rules in effect in ES and NQ. Not much to do except look for edges in the profiles to play.
The Tape
ES spent Monday giving back a soft open, sliding from 7552 to close 7485.75 down at the lows on a 7484 POC, value 7478.50 to 7521. The overnight bid walked it right back, a 7473 low up to 7499.75, and it sits 7497.25 now, back above the POC and Monday’s close but still under the value ceiling. Reclaim 7521 the Monday value top and the week’s 7533.75 ceiling comes next, then 7558 last week’s floor. Lose 7484 the POC and 7478 the Monday low is the first gate, then 7473, the low the overnight and last week share. Under that it is air down to 7440 June’s POC.
NQ put in the ugly one, running up to 29192.50 in the morning and then getting sold hard to a 28784.75 close down at the lows, the volume stacked way up at the 29000 POC before the dump. The overnight did all the repair, grinding 28700 back to 28937.75, and it sits 28922.25 now, back above Monday’s 28872.50 value floor and pressing the underside of the POC. Reclaim 29000 and 29085.75 the Monday value ceiling opens, then 29263 last week’s base. Lose 28872.50 and 28725 the overnight POC catches it, then 28700 the overnight base and 28767 the session low. Under those it is 28512 June’s low and 28408, where last week bottomed, with nothing built between.
CL gapped into the weekend war bid and then spent Monday handing it back, printing a 83.17 session high and closing 82.42 with the POC down at 81.50 and value 81.29 to 82.18. The overnight coiled tight, 81.92 to 82.73, value parked 82 to 82.51, and it sits 82.35 now as the premium keeps leaking on the ceasefire headlines. Hold 82 and 82.73 the overnight high leads, then 82.90 the week’s high and 83.17 Monday’s top. Lose 81.92 the overnight bottom and 81.50 the POC is the gate, then 81.05 the week’s floor. Under that the old range reloads toward 80.48 last week’s ceiling and 79, the last-week and July POC stack.
GC finally showed up. It chopped a tight 4001.70 to 4024 on Monday and closed 4010.70, then the overnight gave it a real bid, running to 4041 and parking value up at 4011 to 4040 on a 4033 POC. It sits 4030 now, above Monday’s entire range and back over the 4000 line it has been failing for weeks. Hold 4024 Monday’s top and 4040.60 the overnight value top leads, then 4041 the overnight high and 4064.70 the prior-week ceiling. Lose 4011 and 4003.30 the overnight base guards it, then 4000 the round number and last week’s POC, with 3963 last week’s low the deeper line under it.
The Calendar
Tuesday, July 21 (all times CT):
- 7:15 ADP weekly employment change
- 7:55 Redbook retail sales
- 3:30 API crude inventory (private read, ahead of tomorrow’s official number)
The Plan
ES:
ES has to prove the overnight reclaim was real. 7484, the Monday POC, is the line the overnight took back, with price just above it at 7497.25 and the whole value area still in play overhead. Hold above it and 7521 the Monday value ceiling is the reclaim that matters, then 7533.75 the week’s top and 7552 Monday’s high, with 7558 last week’s floor and 7590 the shared last-week and July POC the extension. Lose 7484 and 7478.50 the value floor and session low mark the first gate, then 7473, the low the overnight and last week share. Accept under 7473 and it opens 7440 June’s POC, then 7365 June’s value floor, with 7292 June’s low the deep one.
NQ:
NQ has the most to prove after Monday’s flush. 29000, the Monday POC and the round number, is the trigger, with price under it at 28922.25 after the overnight ground the whole range back. Push through and 29085.75 the Monday value ceiling is first, then 29192.50 Monday’s high, with 29263 the prior-week floor and 29600 July’s POC the bigger magnets above. Fail to hold 28872.50 the value floor and 28725 the overnight POC catches the first leg, then 28700 the overnight bottom and 28767 the session low. Under those the air pocket opens toward 28512 June’s low and 28408, where last week bottomed, with nothing built between.
CL:
Crude is bleeding the war premium and the only question is how much of the weekend gap it hands back. 82.12, where the overnight parked its value, is the pivot, with price on it at 82.35 and the ceasefire headlines doing the pushing. Hold it and 82.73 the overnight high is the first lid, then 82.90 the week’s top and 83.17 the session high, with 84.60 July’s ceiling and the 85 line the stretch if the premium bid comes back. Lose 81.92 the overnight bottom and 81.50 the Monday POC is the gate, then 81.05 the week’s floor. Under those the whole pre-war range reloads, 80.48 last week’s ceiling and 79 where last week and July crown their POCs, with 77.53 last week’s base the deep magnet if the gap fully fills.
GC:
Gold is trying to make the reclaim stick after weeks of failing the number. 4024, Monday’s high, is the line the overnight took back, with price above it at 4030 and the safety bid finally showing. Hold 4024 and 4040.60 the overnight value top comes first, then 4041 the overnight high and 4064.70 the prior-week ceiling, with 4080 July’s POC the magnet above. Lose 4024 and 4016 the Monday POC catches it, then 4011 the value floor and 4003.30 the overnight base. Under those it is back to 4000 the round number and last week’s POC, then 3978.90 last week’s floor and 3963 last week’s low, with 3955.40 June’s low the last mark.
The White Van Stuff
The options sheet is still running Friday’s numbers, so treat it as last week’s cage until the desk reprices the weekend. Both equity books are tilted toward puts and price spent the overnight climbing back up into value from below, which turns Friday’s lids back into floors. Crude’s book is wide and leaning long off the war bid, the S&P’s implied day is under a percent while the tech book is priced for closer to double it, and gold is finally trading back above the 4000 floor it kept losing, all of it coiled under Wednesday’s reports.
ES: ES is back inside the Friday book after Monday knocked it out the bottom, trading 7497.25 just under the 7500 shelf. The 7550 interest and the 7568 expected high stack first, then the 7575 magnet and the 7580 same-day cap up toward the far 7800 cap, with the 7470 put floor the line underneath.
NQ: The tech book is the loud one and price climbed back into it overnight, trading 28922.25 under the 29000 shelf. Above that the 29080 same-day cap and the 29216 expected high stack up toward the 29500 magnet and the 30000 cap, while the 28500 put floor is the deep line under everything.
CL: Crude’s book is the one leaning long, still tilted to calls off the war bid with price mid-sheet at 82.35 as the premium leaks. The 83.72 same-day cap is the first lid overhead, then the 85.56 expected high and the 85.74 structural cap, with the 80.19 pivot and the 79.69 put floor anchoring the bottom of a book that runs 79.42 to 85.56.
GC: Gold is finally trading back above the 4000 floor it kept failing, positioning still stacked heavy overhead with price at 4030. The 4040 interest and the 4070 expected high are the first lids, then the 4095 magnet and the 4100 cap, with the 4000 line now the floor it has to defend and the 3967 expected low under it.
Don’t get cocky. You got this.
This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.
I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick