The Tape
ES spent Monday grinding the gap higher, opening 7599, running to 7649, and closing 7630 right on the highs with value built 7611 to 7634 around a 7627 POC. The overnight did nothing with it, holding a 7616 to 7634 band and parking price back on that 7627 POC where it sits 7623 now. Above 7634 the overnight top and 7649 the high, the only thing left is 7693 the June high in clean air, because a close on the highs leaves nothing marked overhead. Below 7611 the value floor opens 7598 Monday’s low, and under that it’s a gap down to last week’s 7553 high with nothing in between. Tight range, record close, sitting on the line.
NQ led again Monday, opening 30633 and trending to a 30873 close near the 30915 high, leaving value 30746 to 30910 around a 30855 POC. The overnight poked a fresh high at 30975 then gave it right back, sliding to 30811 where it sits now, back under Monday’s POC. Reclaim 30855 and the breakout’s alive, with 30915 the high and 30975 the overnight top guarding the air up to 31098 June’s ceiling and the 31100 high. Below 30746 the floor cracks and 30633 Monday’s low is next, then it’s thin all the way down to last week’s 30139 high. The overnight already showed you 30975 is where the sellers wait.
CL spent Monday looking like it found a floor, holding 79.80 and closing 81.32 with value packed 80.10 to 80.73 around an 80.56 POC, the 80 line finally acting like a base. The overnight tore it up, opening 80.6 and cutting through 79.80 and the whole pocket down to 76.88 before settling 77.33. It sits 77.54, below everything Monday built with the 76.88 low right underneath and three weeks of stranded value overhead. Reclaim 79.02 today’s ceiling and 80.10 Monday’s floor and there’s a repair argument, otherwise the 80 base is just the latest shelf to flip into resistance. Below 76.88 there’s no profile, only round numbers, because crude hasn’t traded down here in a long time.
GC put in a rejection Monday, opening 4348, pushing to 4391, then failing and closing 4342 below its own value with the 4385 POC stranded up high and the area running 4361 to 4390. The overnight bought it back, basing to 4376 and sitting 4366 now, inside Monday’s range but still under the 4385 POC it couldn’t hold. Reclaim 4385 and 4391 the high comes back into play, with 4409 last month’s low the gate that actually means something above. Lose 4361 the floor and 4340 where today’s volume sits, and 4338 Monday’s low opens the slide toward last week’s 4284 ceiling. Two-way chop with a heavy close, no trend to trust yet.
The Calendar
- 7:15 AM CT, ADP weekly employment read
- 7:30 AM CT, Housing Starts and Building Permits (May), plus Import and Export Prices
- 12:00 PM CT, 20-Year Bond Auction
- 3:30 PM CT, weekly crude inventory, the private read
Quiet board, all of it second-tier. Housing and the import-price read print at 7:30 but neither moves a tape that’s been trading a peace headline for three days. The afternoon crude inventory is the only number with oil’s name on it, and it lands after the cash close, so it’s an overnight problem. Markets are closed Friday for the holiday, so the back half of this week thins out fast.
The Plan
ES:
ES is sitting on the 7627 Monday POC after a record close, parked 7623 inside a value area it never left overnight. Above 7634 the overnight high and Monday’s ceiling, 7649 the high is the last mark before 7693 the June high in open air, because a close on the highs leaves nothing but blue sky above. Hold 7611 the value floor and the read stays long. Below 7611 fails and 7598 Monday’s low is the gate, then a gap down to 7553 last week’s high, 7509 the ceiling under it, and 7499 last week’s POC where the selloff volume sits, with 7486 June’s floor, beneath that. Nothing says sell this yet.
NQ:
NQ tagged a fresh 30975 overnight then slipped back under the 30855 Monday POC, sitting 30811 and handing the breakout crowd a small headache. Reclaim 30855 and the path reopens through 30915 the high and 30975 the overnight top into 31098 June’s ceiling and the 31100 high, all-time-high air above that. Hold 30746 the value floor and the pullback is just noise. Below 30746 fails and 30633 Monday’s low is the gate, then the profile thins out badly toward 30139 last week’s high, 29983 the ceiling under it, and 29524 last week’s POC where the volume actually lives. The overnight already marked 30975 as the line sellers defend.
CL:
Crude looked like it based at 80 on Monday and the overnight proved it was just a ledge, cutting through 79.80 and the whole pocket down to 76.88 where it sits 77.54 now. A bounce has to reclaim 79.02 today’s ceiling and 80.10 Monday’s floor before anyone talks repair, and even then 80.56 the POC and 81.47 the high cap the old base. Above all of it the real volume doesn’t show up again until 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 last week’s POC, which tells you how far this fell. Below 76.88 there’s no chart to read, just 76 and 75 and whatever round number the selling stops at.
GC:
Gold pushed to 4391 Monday, couldn’t hold it, and closed 4342 under its own value, the overnight buying it back to 4366 but leaving it stuck below the 4385 POC it failed at. Reclaim 4385 and 4391 the high is back in play, then 4409 last month’s low is the gate that turns chop into a recovery, with 4474 and 4563 the lines far above. Hold 4361 the value floor and the range stays intact. Lose 4361 and 4340 where today’s volume sits, and 4338 Monday’s low opens the air toward 4284 last week’s ceiling, then 4230 the value base and 4175 last week’s POC underneath.
The White Van Stuff
Two different worlds in the books today: the index surfaces are about as calm as they get, positioning bullish and the expected moves tight, while price rides the middle of the cage with the caps a long way overhead. Crude is the opposite, the loudest vol on the board by a mile.
ES has a benign book under a record close, the whole same-day surface stacked overhead from the 7692 expected high up to the 7700 cap with room to run into it. Under price the 7600 interest is the near shelf, and the real magnet down at 7455 is a different conversation entirely.
NQ‘s book reads the same, bullish and roomy, the 31100 same-day cap and the 31309 expected high the lines a breakout aims at. The 30700 interest is the near support under price, with the 29800 magnet the deep pull if the whole thing rolls.
CL got its book run through the floor a second straight night, and now the 80 put floor and the 78.30 expected low both sit overhead as resistance. The only marks left near price are the 77 and 76 interest it’s resting on, and below that the book just ends. Vol this loud and a chart with no bottom means the band is enormous and crude will use every inch.
GC is the tightest pin on the board, price glued to its 4345 magnet with the 4400 cap right overhead and the 4500 same-day cap behind it. Below, the 4283 same-day floor is the line that matters, and the book stays balanced the whole way down. This is a coiled book, not a directional one.
Three charts, three speeds. Only one of them is actually offering a trade this morning, and it’s the one with no floor.
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