Still no deal. Tensions rising. SpacXai IPOs on deck. What could possibly go wrong? Both indices stamped fresh highs Monday and I’m still riding the long side that’s worked the whole way up. The circus was in commodities. Crude ripped on the Strait of Hormuz blockade threat while gold got dumped, then overnight the whole thing flipped, crude gave back a chunk and gold bought itself back above the shelf I told you to be patient on yesterday. Equities barely flinched through any of it, sitting a hair under Monday’s highs. Rally still going and people left behind are chasing us higher.
The Tape
ES ran a fresh 7632 high Monday and closed 7614 right on the POC, a clean trend-up finish. The overnight faded it back under all of that value to sit on the 7595 week POC and session VWAP. It’s rotating in the lower half of Monday’s range now, under the 7607 line with the 7610 overnight high capping. Bull case reclaims 7607 and works back toward the 7632 high. Bear case loses 7586 Monday VAL and rotates down toward 7536 prior week VAL.
NQ ran the cleaner trend Monday, stamped 30693 and closed 30571 with the POC up at 30637. The overnight faded it right back to the 30537 today POC, giving back the close. It’s pinned on that line under the 30586 overnight high. Bull case holds 30424 Monday VAL and presses 30637 then the 30693 high. Bear case loses 30401 VAL and slides toward 30303 prior week VAH and the 30000 round.
CL ripped Monday on the headline tape, ran to 94.79 and closed 92.44 with the POC way up at 94.20. The overnight gave a big chunk back, dumped to 90.12 and now sits under all of Monday’s value at the 91.16 POC. It’s leaning on the 91 magnet with the 91.68 VAH overhead. Bull case reclaims 92.24 Monday VAL back into the range. Bear case loses 90.12 overnight low and it’s air down to 88.68 prior week VAL.
GC got sold Monday into a 4511 close down at the lows, the POC pinned at 4497. The overnight bought it all back and pushed through the 4532 shelf both last week and last month built on. It sits up at 4559 now with all of Monday’s value below, pressing the 4564 line. Bull case clears 4571 VAH and runs the air up to 4626 prior week VAH. Bear case loses the 4532 shelf and falls back into Monday’s 4497 POC.
The Calendar
- 9:00 AM CT, JOLTS Job Openings and Quits (April)
- 3:30 PM CT, API crude inventory (after the close, matters for crude overnight)
JOLTS at 9 is the only print that moves the tape today.
The Plan
ES:
ES stamped that 7632 high Monday and settled 7614 on the POC, then the overnight faded it back under all of that value to the 7595 week POC. 7607 today POC is the line it slipped under. Above 7607 the reclaim runs 7610 overnight high, 7616 Monday VAH and 7632 high before it’s air to the 7650 round. Hold 7595 and the pullback stays shallow, lose 7586 Monday VAL and 7576 low cracks. Below there it’s air to 7536 prior week VAL and 7420 May POC where the real volume sits.
NQ:
NQ ran the cleaner trend Monday, stamped 30693 and settled 30571 with value built up at 30637, then the overnight faded it to the 30537 today POC. That line is the pivot. Above it the 30575 VAH and 30586 overnight high come first, then 30637 and the 30693 high before air to 30700. Hold 30424 Monday VAL and the highs stay live, lose 30401 VAL and it’s air to 30303 prior week VAH. Below there 30000 prior week POC and 29954 May VAH are the deeper shelf.
CL:
Crude ripped Monday into a 92.44 close with value way up at 94.20, then the overnight gave a chunk back and parked under all of Monday’s range at the 91.16 POC. That POC is the pivot now. Above it the reclaim climbs 91.68 VAH, 92.24 Monday VAL, 92.47 May VAL and 93.90 last week’s POC back toward the 94.20 highs. Lose 90.50 VAL and 90.12 overnight low and it’s air to 88.68 prior week VAL. Below that 86.35 prior week low and May low are stacked.
GC:
Gold got hit Monday into a 4511 close at the lows, then the overnight bought it back through the 4532 shelf last week and last month both built their POC on. It sits up at 4559 pressing the 4564 POC. Above 4564 the 4571 VAH and overnight high are the breakout, then air to 4626 prior week VAH with the 4627 high the cap. Hold the 4532 shelf and the reclaim stays alive, lose it and 4520 Monday VAH cracks into 4497 POC. Below there 4475 prior week VAL and May VAL is where the volume sits.
The White Van Stuff
Equity vol is dead calm into the new highs, the index books barely moved while the commodity surfaces whipped overnight. Crude’s expected range blew out wide after the rip and the whole upper structure stacked toward 97. Gold’s surface flipped back below price as the safety bid returned, everything that capped it last week now sitting underneath.
ES sits under the 7650 cap with the 7600 pivot right at price. The expected range runs 7553 to 7672 and the book is balanced, nothing screaming either way into a calm tape. The 7595 magnet is the only real pull right underneath if it slips.
NQ already cleared the 30480 cap overnight and it flipped to support underneath, the cap-reclaim that’s carried this whole run. The expected range runs 30178 to 30955 and the book leans long. Nothing real catches a fade until the 30300 put floor.
CL vol is screaming after the rip, the expected range alone runs 88.70 to 95.62. The 92 cap is the lid the overnight fade is sitting under and the 91 magnet is right at price. The 88 put floor is the line that held the give-back, with heavy interest stacked up toward 97.
GC flipped its whole upper surface below price overnight as the bid returned, the 4518 cap and 4493 pivot now both support underneath. It cleared the 4539 expected high on the reclaim, so the 4568 and 4593 interests are the next pulls up. The 4667 cap is a long way overhead.
Protect yourself out there. Survive and advance. See you mañana.
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