Well, that was an absolutely stupid Monday trade. Nasty rip off the open, sell to the weekly open print and then slowly grind up and stall into oblivion. Even now in the pre-market, we can’t seem to find acceptance into that upper distribution. Now gold is the one face-down in the dirt, sold all night while crude also did nothing really. As I said in the weekly prep, there will be better weeks to trade. The last day of the month/quarter could bring some fun. Head on a swivel and lets dig in.
The Tape
ES put in a trend-up day Monday, opening 7457, dumping to 7409, then grinding the whole session back to close 7497 right on its 7495 POC. The overnight did nothing but hold the gain, coiling between 7482 and 7501 around that same 7494 POC, and it sits 7495 still pinned to Monday’s close. That puts it back above the 7475 line last week’s sellers defended and on top of the 7444 week and month POC it spent all of last week beneath. Reclaim stays intact above 7460 Monday’s value floor, and through 7505 Monday’s high the air opens toward 7551 June’s value top. Lose 7460 and 7444 the month POC gives, then 7408 last week’s floor sits right on 7409 Monday’s low.
NQ was the engine Monday, opening 29645, knifing to 29274, then running the entire session to close 30047 on the highs with a 30015 POC. The overnight extended just enough to tag 30086 before settling to 30033 on a 29980 POC, holding everything it took. It sits 30033 back above the 29700 wall where the prior week and the whole month parked their volume, the line every bounce died at until Monday took it. Above 30069 Monday’s high and 30086 the overnight high, the repair points at 30499 June’s value ceiling. Lose 29960 the overnight floor and 29890 last week’s recovery high catches it, then 29700 flips to the gate with 29655 Monday’s value low beside it.
CL built a quiet up day Monday, ranging 69.88 to 71.15 and closing 70.52, though its 70.91 POC sat up near the high where the volume clustered. The overnight gave it back in slow motion, fading to 70.11 and parking value tight at 70.3, and it sits 70.36 just under Monday’s whole value with the war premium long gone and crude’s worst quarter since 2020 nearly in the books. Round 70 is right underfoot, the line the prior week and the month both built their volume on. Reclaim 70.37 Monday’s value low and 70.91 the POC and 71.15 Monday’s high opens the path toward 73.06 the prior week’s value top. Lose 70 and 69.88 Monday’s low gives, then it is the 68.55 floor June and last week keep sharing.
GC kept sliding Monday, opening 4058, fading to 4012, and closing 4030, back under the 4041 POC. The overnight took it apart, knifing from 4032 down to 3955 before bouncing to sit 3978, below Monday’s entire range and the whole June value shelf. That drops it right onto 3976 where the prior week and June share their low, the safe-haven bid still nowhere while stocks rip. Reclaim 4008 the overnight value and 4025 Monday’s value floor for any push back toward 4041 the POC. Lose 3962 the overnight value low and 3955 the overnight low and there is nothing built underneath, just 3950 then 3900 the round numbers.
The Calendar
Tuesday, June 30 (all times CT):
- 8:45 Chicago PMI for June
- 9:00 JOLTS job openings and Conference Board consumer confidence
- 9:30 Dallas Fed services index
- 10:30 6-week bill auction
The Plan
ES:
ES sits 7495 pinned to Monday’s POC and the overnight POC, the reclaim holding right where the week’s sellers used to live. Hold 7460 Monday’s value low to keep the bid in control. Above 7503 Monday’s value top and 7505 the high, the upside opens 7551 June’s value ceiling, then 7599 last week’s high and 7693 June’s high in the air above. Lose 7460 and 7444 stacks the week and June POC together as the first real test, then 7409 Monday’s low sitting on 7408 the prior week’s value low. Under there it is 7354 June’s value floor, then nothing built until 7307 June’s low.
NQ:
NQ sits 30033 holding the gap back above 29700, the wall last week and the month built their volume on and every bounce died beneath until Monday took it back. Hold 29960 the overnight floor and the reclaim stays a base, not a fade. Above 30069 Monday’s high and 30086 the overnight high, the repair runs to 30499 June’s value ceiling, then 30968 last week’s high and 31100 June’s high stacked above. Lose 29960 and 29890 last week’s recovery high gives, then 29700 flips back to the gate with 29655 Monday’s value low beside it. Under 29700 it is 29392 the prior week’s floor, then 29229 June’s value floor before 28506.
CL:
CL sits 70.36 just under Monday’s value with round 70 right underfoot, the line last week and the month both built on. Hold 70 and the base stays intact. Reclaim 70.37 Monday’s value low and 70.91 the POC and the path opens to 71.15 Monday’s high, then 73.06 last week’s range top where the supply waits. Lose 70 and 69.88 Monday’s low gives, then 68.56 stacks last week’s and June’s value floor together right on 68.55 the low they keep sharing. Under 68.55 there is no profile left.
GC:
GC sits 3978, under Monday’s whole range, dropped onto 3976 where last week and June share their low after the overnight knifed it to 3955. Hold 3976 and the prior-week and month floor still has a base under it. Reclaim 4008 the overnight value and 4025 Monday’s value low, and the bounce targets 4041 the POC, then 4045 Monday’s value top. Through there 4106 the prior week’s high and 4365 June’s POC sit stranded a long way up. Lose 3955 the overnight low.
The White Van Stuff
The whole screen is still leaning short into a tape that just ripped. The put side stays loaded under both indexes even after Monday’s rally, and gold gapped clean under its own floor overnight, the positioning chasing the downside it already traded instead of the upside in front of it. Crude is the one book pressing into its cage from below, the volatility bled out of it now that the premium is gone.
ES owns the calm book again, the expected day under a percent wide and price sitting just beneath the 7525 same-day cap. The 7460 pivot is the line underneath and the 7569 expected high is the mark a continuation has to clear.
NQ carries the loud book, the expected day pushing 1.58 percent wide with the volatility still up. Price sits just over the 30000 shelf with the 30500 same-day cap overhead and the 29900 pivot below.
CL is the one trading up into its book, the 71 put floor flipped overhead after price slid under it and the 74.50 same-day cap the next real wall. The expected day runs a tight 69 to 72.49 and price sits 70.36 leaning on round 70.
GC gapped clean under its own floor overnight, the 3984 put floor a line overhead now instead of under price. The 4083 expected high caps a bounce and the 4178 magnet sits well above, the 3962 expected low right where price is already pressed.
Last day of the month. Can’t hold anything back now. Watch out for the close this afternoon.
This brief is free right now. If it’s helping you, the best way to support me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code NICK.
I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick