Funny how fast the end of the world gets bought back. Two days ago the chip tape torched everything, now it's quietly walked most of it back, crude's coughed up the war premium, and gold is the only one still laying on the canvas. Nobody commits ahead of tomorrow's inflation print, so this is coil-and-wait. Forcing trades on a slow is something I don’t love to do. I will be trading in the arena cup final Today. I’m a big 6E guy, so look out. As for the bears? This morning it looks as if they are dead.
The Tape
ES repaired most of Friday’s flush Monday, closing 7416 on the POC after defending the 7404 value floor all day. The overnight ground higher to 7456 and parked value just under the 7448 shelf where the overnight POC and Monday’s VAH stack. It sits 7443 now, coiled under that lid with the 7416 POC and the 7420 May POC the shelf right beneath it. Hold 7404 and a push through 7456 opens 7476 Monday’s high, then 7524 last week’s floor. Lose 7404 and 7390 the overnight low cracks with air underneath.
NQ was the snapback leader Monday, closing 29452 back on its POC after Friday gutted the whole week. The overnight kept grinding to 29727 and built value 29305 to 29642, the strongest tape on the board again. It sits 29668 pressing the 29743 Monday high with all of last week’s value still hanging above. Hold 29386 Monday’s value floor and the grind extends to 29743, then 29948 last week’s value floor. Lose 29305 and 29240 the May POC is the shelf, under it the air opens toward 28800.
CL held a 91 close Monday inside its range while the headline bid still had a pulse. The overnight bled the whole thing out, sliding to 88.70 as the supply scare drained, and it sits 89.49 well under Monday’s value and the 90 line. It’s right back where it started before the spike, heavy and pointed one way. Reclaim 90.86 last week’s floor and 91.30 Monday’s POC comes back, lose 88.70 and it’s air toward 86 where crude based before the run.
GC closed 4350 Monday, still the one nobody wants, just basing in a tight range after Friday liquidated it. The overnight chopped 4336 to 4376 and parked value 4348 to 4364 around the 4360 POC. It sits 4366 pinned on that line with last week’s value stacked way overhead and Friday’s wreckage still below. Hold 4339 Monday’s low and it can press 4375 then 4424. Lose 4336 and 4302 is the gate with nothing but air beneath it.
The Calendar
- 5:00 AM CT, NFIB Small Business Optimism (May), already printed
- 7:30 AM CT, Trade Balance (April)
- 9:00 AM CT, Wholesale Inventories (April) and Existing Home Sales (May)
- 12:00 PM CT, 3-Year Note Auction
- 3:30 PM CT, weekly oil inventories, after the close
The Plan
ES:
ES is coiled 7443 under the 7448 shelf where the overnight POC and Monday’s VAH sit on top of each other, with the 7416 POC and 7420 May POC stacked right under as the floor. Above 7456 the overnight high gives way and the push runs 7476 Monday’s high, then 7524 the prior-week shelf, with 7624 last week’s POC the far line where the whole thing broke down. Hold 7404 Monday’s value floor and the coil stays bid. Lose 7404 and 7390 the overnight low cracks, and under that there’s air back toward the Friday lows.
NQ:
NQ is the leader, sitting 29668 and pressing the 29743 Monday high after grinding up all night, the only one that fully clawed its damage back. Above 29743 the next legs are 29948 last week’s floor, then 30590 last week’s POC the line that flips it all the way back. Hold 29386 Monday’s value floor and the grind has room. Lose 29305 the overnight floor and 29240 the May POC is the shelf, then air opens toward 28800. It took the worst of Friday and bounced the hardest, so let it prove 29386 holds before chasing it higher.
CL:
Crude gave back the whole headline spike overnight and sits 89.49, under Monday’s value and the 90 line it lived above yesterday. Above 90.86 last week’s value floor it gets a second look at 91.30 Monday’s POC, then 91.66 Monday’s value high, with 93 last week’s POC the bigger lid and 98 May POC the far one. Lose 88.70 the overnight low and it’s air down to 86 where last month and the prior week both based before the run.
GC:
Gold is sitting on its hands at 4366, chopping a tight overnight range while it tries to build a base after Friday wrecked it. Above 4375 it can test 4424, then 4439 the prior-week shelf, with 4500 last week’s POC and 4532 the May POC the heavy lids stacked overhead. Hold 4339 Monday’s low and the base holds. Lose 4336 the overnight low and 4302 is the gate, and under that there’s no profile left, just air.
The White Van Stuff
Yields backed off and the dollar softened as the war bid drained overnight, and the books repriced with it. The index surfaces flipped friendlier, especially on the strong one, where price has already run above the line that used to cap it. Crude’s vol is still screaming with its band blown wide, while gold’s whole surface sits overhead and leans heavy to the downside.
ES finally pushed up to its same-day magnet at 7450 instead of getting pinned under it, with the 7485 same-day cap the next lid and the 7491 expected high right behind it. The put floor sits 7400, the line the whole bounce is built on.
NQ ran clean through the 29140 line that had capped it and turned it into a floor, the tell that the snapback is real. The same-day pivot sits 29125 under price now, with the 29916 expected high the lid up top. As long as it holds above that flipped 29140 line, the books lean up.
CL band is still wide at 88 to 94 and price is whipping the bottom of it after the spike drained. The 90 same-day put floor flipped overhead and is the line it has to win back, with the 91.75 magnet above that. The 88.23 expected low is the shelf under price before the deeper drop.
GC book leans heavy to the downside and every bounce keeps getting sold into it. The 4375 same-day put floor sits just overhead as resistance now, with the 4480 magnet way up the chart. The 4302 expected low and 4300 floor are the last lines before the air opens.
Two sessions of buying it back don’t make Friday’s hole disappear. Sit on your hands until a level breaks.
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