CPI came and went and we finally got the roll from the overnight. The print basically seemed like a non-event. No reaction. In fact, we are bidding off the overnight lows so far. Could be an interesting decision off the open. No bias from me. Market doesn’t seem to care about the inflation prints of late. I’ll be on NT Live during the next 3 opens so see you then.
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The Tape
ES put in a continuation up Monday, opening 7395 and closing 7421 against the 7428 high. Value built between 7412 VAL and 7421.75 VAH with POC at 7420. Globex traded a 22-handle cage at 7402 to 7424 and rolled into the lower edge, sitting 7403 right at today VAL 7402.50. Two sessions of agreement around 7412 to 7420 broke from below. The digestion line just gave.
NQ went straight up Monday, opening 28878 and closing 29339 at the highs with POC 29285. Globex opened 29282, ran one tick higher to 29303, then rolled the entire 182 down to 29121 before bouncing to 29130. Currently 29130 between today VAL 29162 and the Globex low. Sixteen sessions of green and the first real overnight roll of the run.
CL Monday opened 95.35 and closed 94.91 inside Friday’s 93.91 to 96.18 range. POC 95.36, value 95.07 to 96.03. Globex gapped open at 99.04, pulled the move of the night with a rip to 102.05, currently 101.66. Cleared every overhead from prev week’s 95 base through the 100 line, today’s 99 cap, and the 100.22 today VAL stack on the same trip. Crude is doing what crude does.
GC Monday opened 4717 and closed 4733 inside Friday’s value with POC 4734. Globex opened 4722, ran to 4731, then sold 39 to 4692 before settling 4708. Below yesterday VAL 4716 and the today VAL 4695 stack. Inside today’s value but below yesterday’s whole zone. Pre-print grind, no decision yet.
What I’m Watching
ES is the give-back read into CPI. Globex broke the two-session 7412 to 7420 cluster from below and rolled into today VAL 7402.50. Sitting 7403 right on it. The bull-case is 7402 holds, CPI prints in line, and the reclaim works back through 7411 today POC, 7421 yesterday close, 7428 yesterday high cluster. Above 7428 the upside reopens through 7450 week VAH and 7486 today expected top with the 7507 expected ceiling in clean air. The bear-case is 7402 fails on a hot print, 7392 yesterday low cracks, and the staircase opens through 7282 prev week VAL where the real conversation was, down to 7211 prev month VAH and 7160 prev month POC. Don’t fade the print without confirmation.
NQ is whether the roll has legs or 29121 is the bid. Monday closed at the highs, Globex shed 218 to test 29121 and bounced to 29130. Sitting below today VAL 29162 with session VWAP 29275 well above. The bull-case is the reclaim of 29162 today VAL works back into 29220 today POC and the 29303 Globex high cluster, with 29346 today VAH and 29400 week POC gating fresh upside toward 29455 today expected high. The bear-case is 29162 stays a cap from above, 29121 Globex low fails, and the cascade opens through 29001 prev week VAH, then air to 28670 prev week POC and 27880 May POC where the volume parked, eventually 27400 April POC if the trend actually cracks. Sixteen straight green and the first real overnight roll. Mag7 keeps doing the work or the trend pauses here.
CL is the cleanest read on the board. Yesterday closed 94.91 and Globex ripped seven bucks back through 100 to 102.05. Sitting 101.66 right inside today’s value. The bull-case is the reclaim sticks, 100 flips to floor, and the upside opens to 102.13 prev week VAH then 104.24 May VAH where the multi-week ceiling lives, with 106.76 prev week high as the next major test above. The bear-case is 100 fails from above, the rip rolls back into the prev week range, and 99 today VAL, 98 week POC, 96.68 week VAL catch the fade. Below 96 the prev wk POC 95 and yesterday close 94.91 reload the staircase down toward 89.70 prev month POC. Three weeks of $4 to $7 overnight whips and counting. Tomorrow’s EIA is the override on every CL trade. Don’t fade a Globex extreme without a signal.
GC is whether 4692 was the give-back floor or the start of a deeper unwind. Sitting 4708 between today VAL 4695 and yesterday VAL 4716. The bull-case is 4695 holds, the reclaim of 4716 works, and the upside rebuilds back through 4729 session VWAP, 4734 yesterday POC, 4760 yesterday high, with 4775 prev week high as the structural gate above. The bear-case is 4695 fails on a CPI-driven yield rip, 4692 Globex low cracks, and 4688 prev month VAL is the next test. Below 4688 the air opens to 4584 prev week VAL where the long crowd from the April peak either defends or starts puking inventory. If equities crack on a hot print, gold should find a bid. If the print confirms cool, gold stays heavy.
The Calendar
- 7:30 AM CT, CPI / Core CPI (April)
- 10:00 AM CT, Total Household Debt Q1
- 12:00 PM CT, Fed Goolsbee speech
- 1:00 PM CT, Monthly Budget Statement / 10-Year Note Auction
- 3:30 PM CT, API Crude Oil Stock Change
The Plan
7402 today VAL, the line Globex rolled into. Above 7402 holds we target 7411 today POC, then 7417 session VWAP, then 7420 yesterday POC and 7421 close cluster, with 7428 yesterday high as the line above. Above 7428 we extend through 7450 week VAH and the 7486 today expected top in clean air. Below 7402 fails and 7392 yesterday low cracks first, then air opens to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits.
The Bracket: Trigger 7402 (today VAL, the line Globex rolled into). Above 7402 holds the cascade runs 7411 today POC, 7420 yesterday POC, 7428 yesterday high, 7450 week VAH, 7486 expected high. Below 7402 fails through 7392 yesterday low, then air to 7282 prev week VAL, 7160 April POC. Voided by chop in 7395 to 7410 through the print with no clean break.
29162 today VAL is the reclaim line. Above 29162 holds we target 29220 today POC, then 29275 session VWAP, then 29303 Globex high. If the Globex high reclaims we go for 29346 today VAH and 29400 week POC stacked just above, with 29455 today expected high gating open air toward 29824 expected ceiling. Below 29162 stays a cap from above and 29121 Globex low fails, the staircase opens through 29001 prev week VAH, 28670 prev week POC, then 27880 May POC where the real volume sits, with 27400 April POC the structural floor below. The first real overnight roll of the run. Don’t fight the print.
The Bracket: Trigger 29162 (today VAL, the reclaim line). Above 29162 holds the cascade runs 29220 today POC, 29303 Globex high, 29346 today VAH, 29400 week POC, 29455 expected high. Below 29162 fails through 29121 Globex low, 29001 prev week VAH, then air to 28670 prev week POC, 27880 May POC, 27400 April POC. Voided by chop in 29130 to 29200 through the print with no clean break.
100 the reclaim line. Above 100 holds we target 101.35 today POC, then 102.05 Globex high stacked with 102.13 prev week VAH, then 102.59 expected ceiling as the structural cap. Above 102.59 the upside opens to 104.24 May VAH where the multi-week ceiling lives, with 106.76 prev week high as the wider cap. Below 100 fails and 99 the round number cracks first, then 98 week POC, then 96.68 week VAL is the staircase. Below 96 the 95 prev week POC and 94.91 yesterday close reload the deeper test toward 89.70 prev month POC. EIA Wednesday is the override.
The Bracket: Trigger 100 (the line Globex reclaimed through, today’s pivot). Above 100 holds the cascade runs 101.35 today POC, 102.05 Globex high, 102.13 prev week VAH, 102.59 expected high, 104.24 May VAH. Below 100 fails through 99 round, 98 week POC, 96.68 week VAL, then deeper to 95 prev week POC, 94.91 yesterday close, 89.70 April POC. Voided by chop in 100 to 102 through API at 3:30 with no clean break.
4695 today VAL is the line. Above 4695 holds we target 4708 current spot, then 4716 yesterday VAL, 4729 session VWAP, then 4734 yesterday POC. Above 4737 yesterday VAH we extend toward 4741 today VAH and the 4760 yesterday high gate. Above 4760 the upside reopens to 4775 prev week high and 4812 April POC where the real overhead volume sits. Below 4695 fails and 4692 Globex low cracks, then 4688 prev month VAL catches the first real downside test. Past 4688 the structural air opens to 4584 prev week VAL where the long crowd holding 153,000 net long either defends or starts puking inventory.
The Bracket: Trigger 4695 (today VAL, the line). Above 4695 holds the cascade runs 4716 yesterday VAL, 4729 VWAP, 4734 yesterday POC, 4760 yesterday high, 4775 prev week high, 4812 April POC. Below 4695 fails through 4692 Globex low, 4688 prev month VAL, then air to 4584 prev week VAL. Voided by chop in 4695 to 4715.
The White Van Stuff
Equities positioning still leans bullish but the cage tightened overnight. ES sits between the 7400 nearest below and the 7475 today’s cap with daily expected range plus or minus 0.95% (about 70 handles, 7366 to 7507). NQ sits below the 29100 same-day floor with daily expected range plus or minus 1.36% (about 400 points, 29023 to 29824). Crude has same-day structure at the 101 reclaim cap stacked with the 100 all-expiry call ceiling, and is sitting at the upper edge of the daily 93.55 to 102.59 expected band. Gold’s daily band sits 4658 to 4798 with current 4708 right under the 4715 same-day pivot and the 4750 today’s magnet above.
ES sits 7403 right at the 7400 nearest below where positioning anchors price. Above 7400 the 7425 nearby above is the first test, then 7440 and 7450 heavy interest stack ahead of the 7475 today’s cap. Past 7475 the 7500 structural call ceiling caps the daily band, then 7507 expected ceiling tops the upside before the 7525 and 7550 heavy interest in clean air. Below price the 7370 same-day magnet and 7366 today expected low form the lower band with 7350 today’s put floor right beneath. Past 7350 the 7325, 7300, and the 7220 magnet level cascade through to the 7000 structural floor far below. Daily band about 70 handles either side.
NQ sits 29130 right at the 29100 today’s put floor where positioning anchors price from below. Above price the 29250 nearby above leads into the 29400 heavy interest, then 29500 nearby above sits ahead of the 29600 today’s cap. Past 29600 the 29750 heavy interest and 29824 expected ceiling stack ahead of the 30000 structural call ceiling in clean air above. Below 29100 the 29023 today expected low catches first, then 28975 same-day magnet sits in the 28900 / 28850 lower options band where the standard floor lives. Below 28850 the 27740 magnet level is the deeper structural anchor. Daily band about 400 points either side.
Crude options now have the 100 all-expiry call ceiling and the 101 same-day cap. Both got cleared in Globex with price sitting 101.66 between the 101 cap and the 102.59 expected ceiling. Above 102.59 the 103, 105, and 105.50 heavy interest cluster opens as the air pocket where the prev week supply lives. Below 101 the 100 line flips from above to support (the first reclaim test on any fade), then the 98.50 today’s put floor catches. Past 98 the 94.50 magnet level and 93.55 today expected low cascade into the 92 structural floor. The reclaim of the 100 line is the day’s binary into EIA tomorrow.
Gold’s options structure sits in a tight band between the 4715 today’s pivot (now above price) and the 4750 nearby above. Above 4715 the 4750 nearby above leads into 4775 heavy interest, then 4798 expected ceiling stacks with the 4800 structural call ceiling at the same line. Past 4800 the 4825 and 4850 heavy interest sit in the upper expected band. Below price the 4700 nearest below is the first test, then 4675 nearby below catches before 4658 today expected low. Past 4658 the 4650 heavy interest and 4645 magnet level cascade through 4625, 4600, and eventually the 4450 structural floor. Daily band about 70 handles either side.
Pressure is a privilege. Maybe we get some vol soon before summer. A trader can only hope.
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