Crude broke 100 and never looked back. CLN26 ran from 99 Sunday night to 109 in three sessions. Equities are paying the bill, NQ closed the worst Monday in six weeks and overnight extended through Monday’s low, ES is back-testing 7400 from above, gold is finding a base on yields. The whole rebuild from Friday’s reversal is on the table this morning.
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The Tape
ES put in a rotation Monday closing 7426 in the lower half of an 81-handle range 7454 to 7373, POC 7408 mid-range with value 7395 to 7431. Globex faded 7384 fresh below Monday’s POC, price into the bell sits 7392 right under the 7395 yest VAL / 7388 ON VAL stack. Bull-case is the 7395 line reclaims, 7408 Monday POC catches the rebuild, 7431 yest VAH leads 7440 overnight high and 7454 yest high reopens upside. Bear-case is 7395 stays broken and 7384 overnight low gives, 7373 yest low fails, 7363 prev wk low gates air to 7327 May VAL, 7282 prev wk VAL, 7160 April POC.
NQ got rolled Monday closing 29098 near the lows after a 541-point dump 29356 to 28814, POC 29000 with value 28849 to 29106. Globex extended through 28831 fresh below Monday’s low, price into the bell sits 28854 right at the 28849 prev day VAL gate. Bull-case is 28849 holds, 29000 Monday POC catches first, 29080 magnet stacks into 29106 yest VAH and 29125 overnight high reopen 29356 yest high. Bear-case is 28849 fails through 28831 overnight low, 28814 yest low gives, then air to 28712 expected low, 28742 prev wk low, 28523 May VAL, 27622 prev month high, 27400 April POC the deeper staircase. Sixteen straight up days unwound and Monday extended the bleed.
CL ripped through 100 and never looked back. CLN26 (post-roll, CLM expires Wednesday) traded a 6.85-handle Monday range 102.61 to 109.46 closing 106.15 with POC 107.00, then Globex parked 108.20 into the bell right under 109.46 yest high. Bull-case is 107 Monday POC holds, 108.20 extends through 109.20 overnight high and 109.31 call ceiling, then 110.35 heavy interest opens the 112.43 same-day cap into 113.62 expected high in clean structure. Bear-case is 107 fails, 106.90 overnight low cracks, 106.18 the same-day put floor catches, then 105 call ceiling flipped to support, 104.21 yest VAL gives and air opens to 103.70 expected lo, 101.02 prev wk POC, 99.62 the 1D Min. All CL numbers in this brief are CLN26.
GC rotated tight Monday closing 4562.90 above POC 4545.60 with value 4539 to 4568 inside a 4535 to 4588 range, Globex parked 4544.90 right back under yest POC. Bull-case is 4540 holds, 4545 Monday POC reclaims, 4558 overnight high goes, then 4562 yest close and 4568 yest VAH stack into 4580 magnet and 4588 yest high, then the 4600 cap takes the first leg. Bear-case is 4540 fails, 4528 overnight low cracks, 4520 the same-day floor catches, then 4513 prev wk low / 4510 month low gives and the cascade opens 4500 round and 4497 expected lo to 4450 standard floor where the April long crowd finally goes underwater.
The Calendar
- 8:00 AM CT, Fed Waller Speech
- 9:00 AM CT, Pending Home Sales (March)
- 10:30 AM CT, 6-Week Bill Auction
- 3:30 PM CT, API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 6:00 PM CT, Fed Paulson Speech
- 6:30 PM CT, Fed Venable Speech
The Plan
ES:
7395, the prev day VAL stacked tight with 7388 overnight VAL where the morning is testing. Above 7395 reclaims and we target 7408 prev day POC, 7431 prev day VAH into 7440 overnight high then 7454 prev day high. Above 7454 reopens 7478 prev week VAH and 7493 today expected hi. Below 7395 fails through 7384 overnight low into 7373 prev day low, then 7363 prev week low gates air to 7327 May VAL, 7282 prev week VAL, 7160 April POC.
NQ:
28849, prev day VAL where Globex parked the dump with 28854 last sitting one tick above the line. Above 28849 holds the gate, 29000 prev day POC catches first, 29080 magnet stacks, then 29106 Monday VAH and 29125 overnight high reopen 29356 yest high in the rebuild. Above 29356 we extend to 29426 prev wk POC and 29479 today expected hi. Below 28849 fails and 28831 overnight low gives, 28814 yest low fails, then air to 28712 expected lo and 28742 prev week low, with 28523 May VAL, 27622 prev month high, 27400 April POC the deeper staircase.
CL:
107, Monday’s POC where CLN26 is rotating after the multi-session rip. Above 107 holds and 108.20 last extends through 109.20 overnight high into 109.46 yest high stacked with 109.31 call ceiling. Above 109.46 we open 110.35 the first heavy interest into the 112.43 same-day cap and 113.62 expected high in clean structure. Below 107 fails through 106.90 overnight low into 106.18 the same-day floor catch, then 105 call ceiling flipped to support, 104.21 prev day VAL gives and the air opens to 103.70 today expected lo, 101.02 prev week POC, 99.62 the 1D Min.
GC:
4545, Monday’s POC where overnight parked with 4544 last sitting on the line. Above 4545 reclaims the magnet, 4558 overnight high goes, 4562 prev day close stacks with 4568 prev day VAH into 4580 magnet and 4588 prev day high then the 4600 cap takes the first leg. Below 4540 fails through 4528 overnight low into 4520 put floor 0DTE, then 4513 prev week low / 4510 month low gives and the cascade opens 4500 round and 4497 today expected lo into 4450 standard floor where the April long crowd finally goes underwater. Yields up, dollar firm, gold weak.
The White Van Stuff
Oil finally cleared the cage entirely and equities are paying the bill on the inflation-impulse read. CLN26 ran nine handles in three sessions and the positioning rebuilt above 100 instead of capping it. Equity implied bands shifted lower on the move, gold’s long crowd from April is still bleeding out, and the whole multi-asset cage repriced lower overnight.
ES sits 7392 below 7400 today’s pivot and the 7460 same-day cap. Implied band ±0.92% (7357 to 7493), price already below the implied low after the overnight fade.
NQ parked 28854 well below 29080 today’s pivot / magnet and the 29400 same-day cap. Band ±1.32% (28712 to 29479), price below implied low same as ES.
CLN26 finally cleared the entire weekly cage. 109.31 call ceiling above price as the structural cap, 110.35 first heavy interest leads to 112.43 today’s call cap stacked with 113.62 expected high. Today’s put floor flipped to 106.18 below price after Monday’s clean break above.
GC sits 4544 right at the 4550 today’s pivot stacked with the 4580 magnet one band above. 4600 call ceiling caps both the all-expiry and same-day. Today’s put floor at 4520 lines up with the 4513 prev week low gate.
To my friends and competition today….
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