The Game Plan: Tuesday, May 26, 2026
"Death smiles at us all. All a man can do is smile back."
Memorial Day weekend’s over and the tape came back loaded. Equities ripped to fresh highs through ES 7566 and NQ 29977 overnight, gold tagged 4583 then fell back to 4510, and crude unwound the entire Friday cushion into 90.35. The post-holiday grilling hangover doesn’t seem to care and continues to push up to our $30k target in NQ. Not much to do unless the tape tells us something else. So BTD. Sellers have small hands and can’t find a reason to sell. The summer trade may be here.
The Tape
ES rotated higher Friday closing 7499.50 with POC at 7494 and value 7488 to 7509, the steady afternoon bid that took the tape from 7469 the open low back to 7516 the high before easing into the long weekend. Globex gap-up opened 7561, ran 7566 fresh and parked 7540 right at the round with today’s POC stacked. Holding 7540 the upside extends 7545 the VAH then 7566 overnight high into 7600 the round. Losing 7540 fails 7532 today VAL, 7525 overnight low and 7516 Friday high gates 7509 Friday VAH and 7499 Friday close into 7494 Friday POC and 7488 Friday VAL. CB Consumer Confidence 9am is the morning override.
NQ ripped Friday closing 29647.25 on POC 29563 with value 29545 to 29655, the bid session that ran 29716 the high off 29438 the morning low. Globex gap-up opened 29962, tagged 29977 fresh just under 30000, and parked 29868 right above the 29818 POC. Holding 29818 the upside extends 29882 the VAH plus 29977 overnight high into 30000 the round. Losing 29818 fails 29791 today VAL, 29744 overnight low, 29716 Friday high gates 29654 Friday VAH and 29647 Friday close into 29563 Friday POC and 29545 Friday VAL. The fresh test of 30000 overnight is the read into the open.
CL rotated lower Friday on CLN26 closing 97.57 with POC at 97.52 and value 96.50 to 98.93 after running 99.44 the high and 95.45 the low. Globex gap-down opened 91.00 from 97.57 Friday close, dumped 90.35 fresh and bid back to 92.85 inside today’s value at 92.60 POC. Below the 95.45 prev week low gate broke entirely overnight and CLN26 parked in fresh range with the 88.75 structural base now the lower destination. Holding 92.85 the upside extends 92.95 the VAH plus 93.63 overnight high then the broken 95.45 line is the level to reclaim. Losing 92.85 fails 92.60 today POC, 91.51 today VAL, 90.35 overnight low opens the deeper test.
GC rotated down Friday closing 4501.40 with POC at 4519.70 and value 4512 to 4536, the failure session off 4537.80 the high into 4489.90 the low. Globex gap-up opened 4571.60, ran 4583.30 fresh, then dumped back to 4503.40 the low and parked 4510 right at today VAL. Holding 4510 the upside extends 4519 Friday POC and 4532 today POC into 4541 today VAH plus 4583 overnight high. Losing 4510 fails 4503 overnight low, 4500 the round and 4489 Friday low gates 4481 prev week VAL and 4467 prev week low. The full overnight reversal back to today VAL is the read.
The Calendar
- 8:00 AM CT, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA House Price Index (March)
- 9:00 AM CT, CB Consumer Confidence (May)
- 9:30 AM CT, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
- 10:30 AM CT, 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions
- 12:00 PM CT, 2-Year Note Auction
The Plan
ES:
7540 the round where Globex parked at POC after the gap-up from 7499 Friday close. Holding 7540 we target 7545 today VAH then 7566 overnight high into 7600 the round opens fresh structure above. Losing 7540 fails 7532 today VAL, 7525 overnight low and 7516 Friday high gates 7509 Friday VAH and 7499 Friday close. Past 7499 air opens to 7494 Friday POC, 7488 Friday VAL and 7469 Friday low then 7420 prev week POC into 7381 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC the deeper destination. CB Consumer Confidence 9am picks the side.
NQ:
29818 today POC where Globex parked after the gap-up to 29977 fresh just under 30000. Holding 29818 we target 29882 today VAH then 29977 overnight high into 30000 opens fresh structure. Losing 29818 fails 29791 today VAL, 29744 overnight low, 29716 Friday high gates 29654 Friday VAH and 29647 Friday close into 29563 Friday POC. Past 29438 Friday low the cascade opens to 29218 prev week POC, 28663 prev week low / May low and 27400 April POC the deeper destination. Same 9am Consumer Confidence override.
CL:
92.60 today POC where CLN26 parked after the gap-down from 97.57 Friday close took price through the 95.45 prev week low entirely. Holding 92.60 we target 92.85 last, 92.95 today VAH then 93.63 overnight high then the broken 95.45 line is the level to reclaim. Past the 95.45 line the recovery opens 96.50 Friday VAL, 97.52 Friday POC and 97.57 Friday close into 98.62 prev week VAL and 98.93 Friday VAH. Losing 92.60 fails 91.51 today VAL, 90.35 overnight low then 88.75 the structural base zone opens up. Crude is fresh range below all of last week’s structure and the 95 reclaim is the question.
GC:
4510 right at today VAL where Globex came back through after the 4583 fresh high faded to 4503 the low. Holding 4510 we target 4511 today VAL stack with 4519 Friday POC into 4532 today POC, 4537 Friday high and 4541 today VAH then 4583 overnight high reopens the upside. Losing 4510 fails 4503 overnight low, 4500 the round and 4489 Friday low gates 4481 prev week VAL and 4467 prev week low. Past 4467 air opens 4400 the round and 4388 April low the deeper destination where the long crowd from up high finally folds. Same 9am Consumer Confidence override on the dollar move.
The White Van Stuff
Equities ripped, crude got carried out, gold tagged the structural cap and came back, the whole positioning cage repriced overnight. Net positioning stays positive on equities into Consumer Confidence with implied bands ES ±0.89% and NQ ±1.31%, while crude vol stays bid hard at IV 81 against an asymmetric 91.69 to 101.51 band that price already broke from below. Gold sits right at the 4510 same-day cap stack.
ES sits 7540 with the implied band already broken overnight and well over today’s pivot at 7405. Same-day cap 7590 stacks with 7600 the structural cap stacked over it. Net positioning stays positive into the morning data.
NQ punched through 29500 the same-day cap entirely overnight, the line that capped the whole prev week. The 29500 flipped to support sits well underneath as the gate. The 30000 structural cap is the only level left.
CL sits 92.85 inside the lower half of the band after the gap-down took out the 95 gate. The 100 today’s cap is now flipped resistance well overhead and the 88.75 magnet sits as the lower magnet. Vol bid hard at IV 81 into the morning data.
GC sits 4510 right at the 4510 same-day cap stack after the 4583 overnight rip faded back. The 4580 magnet sits as the next layer overhead and 4450 today’s put floor sits as the lower edge. Net positioning is short into the morning data.
Be Safe and have fun.
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