NQ punched a fresh all-time high overnight at 28006 and the 28000 structural call ceiling broke for the first time. ES quietly rebuilt back into Monday’s value with a 7269 Globex high right under Monday’s 7271 print and is sitting 7264.75. Crude lost Monday’s POC and dumped to 102.78 in Globex on the give-back, currently 103. Gold caught a bid off Monday’s 4510 beating and reclaimed today’s cluster, sitting 4572. Five stories at the open, all running into AMD tonight. The follow-through tape is here on equities, the give-back tape is here on commodities, and ISM Services + JOLTS firing at the same time at 9 picks the side. No faith from me to sellers at this point. Yesterday was great but looks like we will continue the slow grind.
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Yesterday’s Sessions
ES Monday opened 7250.50, ranged 7199.25 to 7271, closed 7231.25. POC printed 7230 with VAH 7240.75 / VAL 7200.25. Inside-day character on a Monday after Friday’s 7300.75 ATH print. Buyers showed up at 7199 right at the April POC and reclaimed the rotation. The close at 7231 right on POC and the lack of trend tell you nothing got resolved. That’s not exhaustion. That’s digestion.
NQ Monday opened 27854.50, ranged 27614.50 to 27940.75, closed 27779.75. POC 27775 with VAH 27861 / VAL 27690. The 27622 April high was the breakout retest line and Globex tested 27614 right at it before the bid showed. Textbook breakout retest. Mag7 carrying the weight. Sixteen of seventeen sessions green now.
CL Monday traded the full $5 round trip from 101.53 to 106.76 and closed 105.29. POC 105.59, value 103.52 to 106.75. Wild range, headline-driven again. Closed near the highs but Globex couldn’t hold and the fade lit up overnight. The 99 to 107 cage that defined last week is still the cage. Crude is doing what crude does.
GC Monday opened 4584.30, dragged to 4510.10, bounced to 4527.60 close. POC 4530, value 4513.50 to 4567.90. Broke the 4522 week low intraday, recovered, closed weak. The long crowd took a real punch and three weeks of distribution are still in the rearview. The April peak at 4917 looks more like a lower-high vs the cycle than a fresh top.
The Overnight
ES opened Globex 7239.75, ran to 7269 (right under Monday’s 7271 high), then dipped to 7235.75 (right at Monday’s VAL) and bounced. Currently 7264.75 with today POC 7255, today VAH 7268.25, today VAL 7239.50, session VWAP 7246.25 stacked underneath. Reclaimed Monday’s value cleanly with no real test of the downside. Inventory says buyers showed up early. That’s the bid acting like the bid.
NQ opened Globex 27827.25, dipped to 27818.25, then ripped to 28006 (fresh ATH on the print) and faded modestly. Currently 27990 right under 28000 with today POC 27931, today VAH 27974.25, today VAL 27874.75 already established. Took out Monday’s 27940.75 high AND the 28000 line on the same move. Both extremes of the Globex range printed and only the upside got rejected, barely. Decision tape just like Monday.
CL opened Globex 104.18, ripped to 105.35 on the early bid, then puked to 102.78 before the small bounce. Currently 103.18 and today POC 104.18, today VAH 104.60, today VAL 103.46. Lost Monday’s POC 105.59 cleanly and lost Monday’s VAH 106.75 even more cleanly. Today VWAP and the today’s cap stack at 103, current price below. The Friday rip is being unwound in real time and last week’s overhead supply at 105 to 107 is now overhead resistance.
GC opened Globex 4543 , low 4540.40, high 4577.30, currently 4572.30. Today POC 4565, today VAH 4568.30, today VAL 4544.70, same-day pivot 4556.10. Bounced clean off Monday’s beating and reclaimed today’s cluster. The bear-case scenario from Friday is on pause but not cancelled. The 4522 week low / April low is still the line.
The Map
ES is coiling between today VAH 7268.25 and Monday’s POC 7230 with POC 7255 and session VWAP 7246.25 stacked inside the band. The Globex tested both ends of Monday’s value (7235 low at the bottom of Monday’s range, 7269 just under Monday’s 7271 high) and finished closer to the top. That’s a quiet rebuild where buyers never got tested. Above 7271 (Monday’s high) the runway opens to 7297 expected top and 7300.75 (Friday’s ATH and the structural cap). Above 7300 the upside is air toward today’s call ceiling. Below 7239 (today VAL) the 7235 Globex low is the first test, then 7230 (Monday’s POC, the line the whole month respects, week POC and month POC at the same level) is where the read changes. Below 7230 the 7225 downside target / 7204 (Monday’s VAL) / 7200 today’s put floor staircase opens with 7175 standard floor below.
NQ is in fresh-ATH mode and the breakout retest at 27622 (April high) already happened in Monday’s Globex. Tonight extended cleanly through Monday’s 27940 high AND the 28000 ceiling on the same move. Currently 27990 right under 28000 , today POC 27931, today VAH 27974.25, today VAL 27874.75 already established as the breakout floor structure. The structure changed in 24 hours. Above 28006 (Globex high / new ATH) the runway opens to 28118 expected top, then 28200 / 28250 / 28400 heavy interest stacks above. Below 27974 today VAH the re-acceptance fails and 27875 today VAL is the next test. Below 27875 the 27818 Globex low and 27775 (Monday’s POC, week POC) is the staircase. Below 27775 the 27690 (Monday’s VAL) and 27622 (April breakout retest line) come back into play. Below 27622 the breakout actually fails.
Crude lost Monday’s POC 105.59 and Monday’s VAH 106.75 in Globex with no real fight. Trading inside today’s value at 103.18, below today VAH 104.60 and below today VAL 103.46 already. Today VAH 104.60 is the cap on any reclaim attempt, then 105 / 105.35 (Globex high) / 105.59 (Monday’s POC) is the cluster, then 106 / 106.75 (Monday’s VAH) / 107 spike zone is where last week’s cage cap sits. Below 102.78 (Globex low) the path opens to 101.53 (Monday’s low) and the 100 today’s pivot zone where 99.99 expected low and 95 downside target stack as the staircase. The 94.50 magnet is where crude lived all month before the geopolitical bid. The Friday rip is being unwound in real time.
Gold caught a bid off Monday’s 4510 low and rebuilt the cage. Today VAH 4568.30 / today POC 4565 / same-day pivot 4556.10 cluster is the magnet zone, with Globex high 4577 just above. Above 4577 the bounce extends with today’s cap 4581 and expected top 4586.70 stacked just above. Above 4594 (Monday’s high) the structural rebuild gets serious and 4610 / 4635 heavy interest opens up. Below 4540 (Globex low) the 4530 (Monday’s POC, week POC, the line the whole month respects) cracks and we re-test 4513 (Monday’s VAL) / 4510 (Monday’s low) / 4522 (week low). The 4522 line is where the long crowd holding 153,000 net long either defends or starts puking inventory. Below 4522 we’re in air.
What I’m Watching
ES is the quiet rebuild. Globex held above Monday’s VAL and rebuilt to the upper end of Monday’s range with no fight. Currently 7264.75 and today POC 7255 and session VWAP 7246.25 underneath, today VAH 7268.25 right above. Either ES extends through Monday’s 7271 high toward 7297 expected top and 7300.75 (Friday’s ATH), or sellers come back at the open and 7235 Globex low cracks for the test of 7230 (the line, the 7230 line). The 7230 line stays the read. ISM Services and JOLTS at 9 AM both fire at the same time. Either one picks the side and don’t fade the data print without confirmation.
NQ is whether the ATH holds from above or 28000 becomes the cap for the week. The bull-case is the breakout retest happened Monday at 27622, held, and tonight printed the follow-through at 28006. The bear-case is 28000 was the structural call ceiling for a reason and the options crowd fights it back from below. Currently 27990 right under 28000. Above 28006 the upside opens to 28118 expected high and the 28200 to 28400 cluster cluster. Below 27974 today VAH the re-acceptance fails and 27875 today VAL / 27818 Globex low / 27775 Monday’s POC and week POC is the staircase, then 27622 April breakout retest line below that. Mag7 has been carrying the move. The catalyst into NVDA later this month is the AI tape.
CL is its own animal again. Lost Monday’s POC and Monday’s VAH cleanly with no fight. Today VAH 104.60 is the cap on any reclaim. Either crude holds 102.78 Globex low and rebuilds toward 104 / 105 cluster, or 102.78 cracks for real and the path opens to 101.53 Monday’s low and the 100 today’s pivot zone where 99.99 expected low and 95 downside target sit. The structural shift from last week’s 99-to-107 cage is happening in real time. Crude has refused to extend through 108 all week and now the 105 zone failed too. EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event but the headline tape runs every day.
GC is whether 4522 holds. The Friday line at 4597 is broken. The Friday magnet at 4565 was tested and reclaimed in today’s value. Monday’s 4510 low went under the week low and recovered. Currently 4572.30 with the today’s cluster (4565 / 4566 / 4568) stacked underneath. Either gold holds 4540 Globex low and grinds back through Monday’s 4594 high toward today’s cap 4581 and expected high 4586.70, or 4530 (the line) cracks and we re-test 4510 (Monday’s low) and 4522 (week low). The 4522 line is the level where 153,000 net long crowd either defends or starts puking inventory. If equities keep ripping, gold stays heavy. If equities crack on a soft print, gold might find its bid.
The White Van Stuff
ES is trading in the 7240 to 7260 zone where positioning is densest, just above today’s cap 7245. The 7275 nearby above is the first test on extension, then 7290 heavy interest, expected high 7297, and 7300 call ceiling (which equals Friday’s actual ATH 7300.75) stack into a wall at the structural top. The 7235 Globex low we already tested sat between today’s cap 7245 and today’s pivot 7230. Below today’s pivot the 7225 downside target / 7220 magnet level / 7200 put floor / standard floor 7175 below. The 7163.50 expected low and 7150 heavy interest are the structural air pocket.
NQ already broke today’s cap 27900 in Globex AND took out the 28000 ceiling on the ATH print. Above 28006 the 28100 nearby above and 28118 expected top stack as the next gate, then heavy interest above above. Below 28000 the 27950 downside target is the first test, then today’s cap 27900 flips into resistance from above for the first time, then 27800 nearby below and today’s pivot 27720 (yesterday’s magnet zone). Magnet level 27620 is the breakout line in plain English . that’s where the structure says the breakout actually fails. Today’s put floor 27500 and 27433 expected low are the structural staircase.
CL is right inside the tight today’s box at 102.50 / 103 with current price 103.18 below the put floor 102.50. The today’s cap 103 is at price and the put floor is 50 cents below. Above 103 the 105 / 109 / 110 / 111 / 112.85 expected top cluster is overhead supply from last week’s spike. Below 102.50 the 100 today’s pivot is the round number break, then expected low 99.99 / 95 below / magnet level 94.50 staircase. The 94.50 magnet is the spot the options crowd thinks crude wants to settle over time and where crude actually lived all month before the geopolitical bid.
GC is trading right under today’s cap 4581 with magnet level 4566 and today’s pivot 4556 underneath. Above 4581 the expected high 4586.70 stacks at the cluster, then 4635 heavy interest above. The all-expiry call ceiling 4785 is way above price and not in play today. Below the magnet 4566 the 4536 nearby below and 4496 downside target are the first tests, then 4486 put floor / 4452 expected low / 4436 standard floor staircase. The 4486 put floor below lines up with the 4500 round number where buyers should defend if 4530 cracks.
The Calendar
- 9:00 AM CT, ISM Services PMI
- 9:00 AM CT, JOLTs Job Openings
- 1:00 PM CT, Fed Bowman speech
- AMD earnings (after the close)
What Could Go Wrong
ES rolls from the quiet Globex rebuild on a hot ISM print and 7239 today VAL cracks for the test of 7235 Globex low and 7230 (the 7230 line, the line). Below 7230 the 7225 downside target / 7204 Monday’s VAL / 7200 put floor and 7175 below as the staircase. The reclaim into Monday’s value flips into a one-day overshoot and the 7160 line we’ve held all month becomes the destination. ISM and JOLTS together provide the catalyst for the move both ways and NFP-week chop sets in.
NQ rolls from the 28006 print on a weak open or a soft earnings reaction and re-tests 28000 from below. Below 27974 today VAH the breakout retest from above fails and 27875 today VAL / 27818 Globex low / 27775 (Monday’s POC) is the staircase. Below 27775 the 27690 Monday’s VAL and 27622 (breakout retest level / structural floor) come back into play. Below 27622 the breakout actually fails and the 27500 put floor zone / 27433 expected low / 27400 (week POC and April POC the structural floor) opens up to a 200-handle air pocket. Mag7 has been carrying the move. A Mag7 wobble cracks it.
Crude’s give-back continues all week and the headline tape stays loud. Either 102.78 Globex low cracks below 102 with sellers behind it and 101.53 Monday’s low / 100 today’s pivot / 99.99 expected low / the 95 zone staircase opens, or the 105 cluster holds again on a ceasefire-headline reversal. Gold’s 4530 line cracks on a continued equity rip and the 153,000 net long crowd starts puking inventory. Below 4530 the Monday’s 4510 low and 4522 week low test for real, and below 4522 we’re in air through 4486 today’s put line to 4452 expected low and 4436 standard floor. The geopolitical premium that built since the 4917 cycle peak fully unwinds.
The Plan
ES: Above 7271 (Monday’s high) the run extends with 7275 nearby above as the first test, then 7290 heavy interest, 7297 expected top, and 7300.75 (Friday’s ATH and structural cap) stack as the wall. Above 7300 the upside is air. Hold 7239 (today VAL) keeps the bid alive and the 7245 today’s cap reclaim plays out. Below 7239 the 7235 Globex low is the next test, then 7230 (the line, month POC) is the level where read changes. Below 7230 the 7225 downside target / 7204 Monday’s VAL / 7200 put floor / standard floor 7175 below. ISM and JOLTS at 9 will pick the side. Don’t fade the print without confirmation.
NQ: Above 28000 (call ceiling) and 28006 (Globex high / new ATH) the breakout extends to 28100 nearby above, 28118 expected top, then the 28200 to 28400 cluster stacks. Above 28250 the upside is open. Hold 27974 (today VAH) for the re-acceptance read, hold 27875 (today VAL) for the breakout structure intact. Below 27875 the slide opens with 27818 Globex low / 27775 (Monday’s POC and week POC) as the floor, then 27690 Monday’s VAL / 27622 (April breakout line) as the staircase. Lose 27622 and the rally has a real problem with 27500 the put floor and 27433 expected low below. AMD is the override on every NQ trade carried into the close.
CL: Above 104.60 (today VAH) the fade fails and 105 / 105.35 (Globex high) / 105.59 (Monday’s POC) is the reclaim test, then 106 / 106.75 (Monday’s VAH) / 107 spike zone where last week’s cage cap sits. Hold 102.78 (Globex low) keeps any cage intact. Below 102.78 the path opens to 101.53 (Monday’s low), then the 100 today’s pivot zone where 99.99 expected low and 95 below stack. Below 100 the 95 downside and 94.50 magnet are the structural air pocket. Headline tape all week, EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event. Don’t fade a Globex extreme without a real signal.
GC: Above 4577 (Globex high) and 4581 (today’s cap) the bounce extends with 4586.70 expected top, then 4594 (Monday’s high) stacked, then 4610 / 4635 heavy interest above. Hold 4540 (Globex low) keeps the bounce. Below 4540 the 4530 (the 7230 line, the line) is the test, then 4527 Monday’s close / 4513 Monday’s VAL / 4510 Monday’s low / 4522 week low staircase opens. Below 4522 the long crowd holding 153,000 net long starts puking inventory and we’re in air through 4500 / 4486 put floor to 4452 expected low. If equities keep ripping, gold stays heavy. If equities crack, gold might find its bid.
Sellers have no balls. Buy the dip.
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