The Tape
ES is 7690.25, sitting on 7688.75, the floor of August’s value, after the night ran 7701 and handed back 36 points. Monday’s session was a quiet rotation between 7595 and 7639, and the overnight gap through that range has already been half-filled. The 7695.50 to 7701 shelf, the overnight ceiling and high, is the gate, and 7665, the print the night built on, is the first catch under price. Hold 7688.75 and the map opens to 7721, September’s ceiling, then 7728.50, last week’s high. Lose it and 7675.75, last week’s ceiling, is the first work, then 7665.
NQ is 29438.25, a few points under 29450, the print last week settled on, after running 29495.25 overnight and fading 57 points. Monday was a trend-up day that closed 29162.50 on a 29000 POC, and the overnight has taken that whole range back in one move. The 29460 to 29488 stack, the overnight POC and ceiling, is the wall, and 29350, where the overnight and last week’s value both bottomed, is the floor. Take 29460 and 29495.25 is the gate, then 29510.20, September’s ceiling. Lose 29350 and 29254.80, August’s value floor, is the only shelf before 29231.
CL is 101.67, back under the 101.91 low it made Monday, after the overnight dipped 101.21 and recovered to 103.30 before fading again. Crude has gone from 86 to 104 in six sessions and is now testing the bottom of its own overnight value, which is the first real crack in the move. The 102.27 to 102.89 shelf, the overnight value floor and Monday’s value low, is the line that decides the day. Hold it and 103.30, the overnight print, is the gate, then 103.88, Monday’s POC. Lose 102.27 and 101.21, the overnight low, is the trigger, then 100.05, last week’s POC.
GC is 4314, inside the value it built overnight after Monday’s session sold to 4293.30 and closed 4329.20 on a 4316.60 POC. Gold has been walked down from 4488.80 last week to 4293 in four sessions, and the overnight’s 4301.60 low is the line that holds the whole move together. The 4318.80 to 4324.80 shelf, the overnight value floor and Monday’s ceiling, is the first work. Take it and 4330, where Monday opened and the night printed, is the gate, then 4339.40, Monday’s high. Lose 4304.60 and 4301.60 is the trigger, then 4293.30, Monday’s low, with nothing structural until 4074.
The Calendar
Tuesday, September 15 (all times CT):
- 7:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)
- 12:00 20-Year Bond Auction (Aug)
- 3:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Sep 11)
The Plan
ES:
ES is on 7688.75, the floor of August’s value, and the decision is whether the overnight gap holds or fills. Take 7695.50, the overnight ceiling, and 7701, the high, is the first work, then 7721, September’s ceiling, and 7728.50, last week’s high, with 7775, the POC August built, above them. Clear that and 7798.75, August’s ceiling, opens 7838.50, the month’s high. Lose 7688.75 and 7675.75, last week’s ceiling, catches first, then 7665, the overnight print, and 7660.50, the floor of the night’s value. Under that pair 7645, the overnight low, is the last shelf before 7644, September’s POC, and 7639, Monday’s high, with 7632.50, Monday’s close, under it.
NQ:
NQ is under 29450, the print last week settled on, and the gap up has already been half-filled. Take 29460, the overnight POC, and 29488, the overnight ceiling, is the first work, then 29495.25, the high, and 29510.20, September’s ceiling, with 29600, the POC August built, above them. Clear that and 29646, last week’s ceiling, opens 29764.80, the high, then 29931.50, August’s ceiling. Lose 29350, where the overnight and last week’s value both bottomed, and 29254.80, August’s value floor, catches, then 29231, the overnight low, and 29208.50, Monday’s high. Under that pair 29162.50, Monday’s close, is the last shelf before 29150, September’s POC, and 29090, Monday’s ceiling.
CL:
Crude is testing the bottom of its own overnight value at 102.27 after a six-session rip from 86 to 104, and this is the first real crack in the move. Hold 102.27 and 102.89, Monday’s value low, is the first work, then 103.30, the overnight print, and 103.72, the overnight ceiling, with 103.88, Monday’s POC, above them. Clear that and 104.21, Monday’s open and the overnight high, is the gate, then 104.46, Monday’s ceiling and last week’s high, with 104.95, September’s high, over it. Lose 102.27 and 101.21, the overnight low, is the trigger, then 100.05, last week’s POC, and 99.82, September’s ceiling. Under that pair 94.50, last week’s value floor, is the last shelf before 90.87, last week’s low.
GC:
Gold is inside the value it built overnight, a few dollars over 4318.80, after four straight sessions of selling from 4488.80 to 4293.30. Take 4318.80 and 4324.80, Monday’s ceiling, is the first work, then 4330, where Monday opened and the night printed, and 4333, last week’s low, with 4339.40, Monday’s high, above them. Clear that and 4353, the overnight ceiling, is the gate, then 4358.20, the high, with 4369.20, September’s value floor, over it. Lose 4304.60, Monday’s value floor, and 4301.60, the overnight low, is the trigger, then 4293.30, Monday’s low. Under that pair the map is blank to 4074, August’s low.
The White Van Stuff
Both index books have their floors right under the overnight lows, ES at 7625 and NQ at 29250, so the gap-up fade ran into real interest and stopped. Crude’s book is the tightest of the four, with the floor for the day at 100 and the pivot at 102.25, both inside the range it’s been trading. Gold’s book has nothing close to price except the 4300 and 4325 marks it’s sitting between.
ES: ES is under 7700, the nearest interest over price, and over 7675, the nearest under it, with 7715 the pivot and 7750 the magnet stacked above. 7800 is the same-day lid and 7500 the floor for the day. Price is 7690.25, between the 7675 and the 7700.
NQ: NQ is under 29475, the pivot and magnet stacked, and over 29400, the nearest interest under price, with 29500 the cap and 29600 the same-day lid above. 29000 is the put floor and 29134.75 the bottom of the band. Price is 29438.25, under the 29475 and over the 29400.
CL: Crude is under 102, the nearest interest over price, and over 101.50, the nearest under it, with 102.25 the pivot and 103 the same-day lid above. 100 is the put floor and cap and 98.14 the bottom of the band. Price is 101.67, between the 101.50 and the 102.
GC: Gold’s book has the pivot at 4400 and the put floor at 4350, both a long way over price, with the 4300 and 4325 marks the only things close. 4475 is the same-day lid and 4275.50 the bottom of the band. Price is 4314, between the 4300 and the 4325.
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