Happy fall y’all. No not really. It was 99 here yesterday. The calendar says fall, but these markets are still partying like its mid July after yesterday’s trend day at the speed of a retiree on their way for the pre-dinner special at Old Country Buffet (r.i.p). Crude and gold both took the scenic route through hell before crawling back toward their overnight volume. I have no strong read in ES, NQ, crude, or gold. My lean would be we probably make new all time highs because why the fuck not. There are clean reaction spots on every chart, so let price get there and do something first. Have some fun Today and be prepared for your significant other to start placing ceramic pumpkins and spice candles throughout your home.
The Tape
ES is 7838.5, boxed between the double POC at 7835.75 and August’s 7841.50 print, which is an impressively stupid place to force a trade. Monday was a real trend-up day, running from 7758.25 to 7847.25 and closing at 7833.25 with value parked near the high. The overnight could only reach 7843.75, held a tight cage above 7830, and kept returning to 7835.75. Acceptance over 7841.50 gets another shot at 7843.75 and Monday’s 7847.25 high. Lose the shared print and 7833.25 to 7830 catches first, with the overnight low waiting at 7810.50.
NQ is 30772.25, sitting under the 30780 overnight print and Monday’s 30784.25 close after the night gave back a fresh high. Monday was a runaway trend-up session from 30216.50 to 30862.75, with the 30805 POC confirming buyers did business upstairs instead of poking and leaving. Globex cleared that high to 30916.50, then slid back inside value and under its own VWAP at 30815.48. Reclaim 30784.25 and the reoffer runs through 30805 toward 30862.75. Break 30752.75 and the overnight low is the first test, followed by August’s old high at 30586.75.
CL is 90.43, right on the 90.32 overnight print after trading both sides of Monday’s entire range. Monday sold from 93.76 to 91.19 and left its 92.37 POC near the close, which was ugly before Globex made it uglier. The night ripped to 93.84, puked to 89.16, and built its volume around 90.32. A bounce into 91.19 and 91.48 is where sellers get another chance, while 92.20 is the reclaim that makes the washout matter. Lose 89.17 and September’s value floor is next, then the chart gets very thin below 88.50.
GC is 4364.2, holding above Monday’s 4360.30 low and the 4349.50 overnight value floor after the night bought the whole disaster back. Monday was a trend-down session from 4407.80 to 4360.30, with value sliding lower and the 4388 POC abandoned by the close. Globex tried 4414.10 first, failed, then flushed to 4327.60 before crawling back near the middle of its value. Hold 4349.50 and reclaim 4373.70 to 4374.10, and the failed low has a case. Break the overnight value floor and 4335 is the only real shelf before another look at 4327.60.
The Calendar
Tuesday, September 22 (all times CT):
- 9:05 Fed’s Williams Speaks
- 9:20 Fed’s Governor Jefferson Speaks
- 12:00 2-Year Note Auction (Aug)
- 12:00 Fed’s Barkin speech
- 3:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Sep 18)
The Plan
ES:
ES is 7838.5 under the 7840.75 trigger and pressed against August’s 7841.50 POC, so this little box gets watched until somebody wins it. If buyers build above that print, 7843.75 and Monday’s 7847.25 high come first, then 7886 where August’s value topped. Clear that and the next structural stop is the August high at 7906.25; fail here and the shared 7835.75 POC catches before Monday’s 7833.25 close. Acceptance below 7830 opens the overnight low at 7810.50, then Monday’s value floor at 7793.75. Under there, September’s 7768.75 ceiling sits on August’s 7763.25 floor, and the last shelf is the prior-week high at 7719.75.
NQ:
NQ is 30772.25 under the 30780 trigger and Monday’s 30784.25 close, right where a huge day can either rest or start giving itself back. Take the close and 30805 is the first magnet, followed by Monday’s 30862.75 high and the overnight ceiling at 30873.50. Hold above that ceiling and 30916.50 is the next test; lose 30752.75 instead and the overnight low at 30670 gets the vote. Below it, August’s 30586.75 high leads to Monday’s 30513.75 value floor, then the 30222 open. Break the 30216.50 Monday low and the next volume is way down at September’s 29938.25 ceiling beside the prior-week 29903.75 ceiling.
CL:
Crude is 90.43 right on the 90.32 overnight print, and that location says the giant round trip has solved absolutely nothing. Reclaim the 91.19 Monday low and 91.48 starts its value, with the overnight ceiling at 92.20 above it. Acceptance there brings the 92.37 POC back into play, then Monday’s 93.76 high and last week’s 95.53 low. Lose 89.17 and September’s floor at 88.50 is the trapdoor, with August’s 83.40 high below it. Under that, the staircase runs through 82.35 and the 78.23 print toward the August low at 69.48.
GC:
Gold is 4364.2, holding above the 4360.30 Monday low and over the 4349.50 overnight value floor. Stay above that floor and 4373.70 to 4374.10 is the first shelf, followed by August’s 4380.70 value low. Clear the 4383 overnight print and the 4388 POC is the magnet under Monday’s 4394 ceiling. That ceiling opens the road toward last week’s 4397.90 value high; fail back under 4349.50 and the prior-week 4335 POC catches first. Lose it and the overnight low at 4327.60 is the gate, with last week’s 4293 floor before the August low at 4079.20.
The White Van Stuff
The equity books are stacked closest to price after Monday’s rip, while crude’s map is upside down and gold has the widest room to wander. Nothing here fixes the lack of a read. It does tell us where the weird little white van might be parked when price arrives.
ES: ES is under today’s cap with heavy interest packed above it, while the pivot and put floor sit well below the overnight range. The nearest marks are 7860 overhead and 7830 underneath, so price is squeezed between the lid and the first floor.
NQ: NQ sits between nearby interest at 30750 and 30800, with today’s cap still above at 31000. The expected band leaves plenty of room both ways, but right now the book is pinning price near 30750.
CL: Crude is just over the 90 mark and miles below the 92.75 pivot, while the listed put floor is somehow sitting above price at 92.50. That is either useful tension or the white van getting lost again. The nearest honest bracket around price is 90 to 91.
GC: Gold is under today’s 4370 pivot and the 4375 mark. The 4350 level sits beneath it, with the expected low beside 4325. The book gets interesting only if this bounce can keep its head above 4350.
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