Last Tuesday of September. Football is back, pumpkin candles are out, and this tape showed up asking me to pick a side on four charts sitting on decision lines. No strong read on ES, NQ, CL, or GC, so I am watching the reactions and leaving the fortune-telling to people with more confidence than sense.
The Tape
ES is 7761.5, nine points off the 7770.75 overnight high and holding over 7751.25 overnight VAH after reclaiming Monday’s 7746.25 close and POC. The night ran 7716 through last week’s low and bought every tick back, a failed breakdown that found buyers early and kept going. Hold 7751.25 and 7763.75 September POC is the first real argument, then 7765.50 Monday VAH and the 7770.75 high. Lose 7751.25 overnight VAH and 7746.25 catches, then 7743.75 the night’s print before value gives way at 7735.25.
NQ is 30677.0, sitting right on the 30675 Monday VAH after clearing 30658.25 prev week VAL overnight, with the 30707 overnight high 30 points up. It took back Monday’s whole value area, so the reclaim is done and the question now is whether it accepts up here. Hold 30675 and 30707 gets tested first, then 30718 Monday open with 30740 prev week POC behind it. Give up 30658.25 and 30638 Monday POC catches, then 30592.75 overnight VAH with 30567.50 Monday close waiting below it.
CL is 91.27, three ticks under 91.30 Monday VAL and sitting on the 91.25 Monday low after the night flushed to 90.80 and bounced. It is out the bottom of Monday’s value with the 92.00 POC shared by September and last week 73 ticks overhead. Reclaim 91.30 and 92.00 becomes the fight, then 92.22 overnight VAL and 92.58 Monday POC put 93.80 prev week VAH back in play. Lose 91.25 and 90.80 overnight low catches before 90.22 September VAL.
GC is 4187.4, six bucks under the 4193.30 overnight high and over the 4180.40 overnight VAH. Monday reached 4203.80, failed to keep the open, and closed down after sellers owned the afternoon. The night built its POC at 4166, walked back through the top of value, and capped out just over here. Clear 4193.30 and Monday’s 4199.70 open comes before the 4203.80 high. Fall back under 4180.40 and 4177.20 catches first, then the whole reclaim is in trouble at 4166.
The Calendar
Tuesday, September 29 (all times CT):
- 8:00 House Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
- 8:00 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul)
- 8:00 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jul)
- 9:00 JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
- 9:00 Consumer Confidence (Sep)
- 9:30 Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Sep)
- 10:00 Fed’s Bowman speech
- 10:30 52-Week Bill Auction
- 11:40 Fed’s Barr Speaks
- 12:00 Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks
- 1:00 Fed’s Williams Speaks
- 2:00 Fed Waller Speaks
- 3:30 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Sep 25)
The Plan
ES:
ES is 7761.5, a few points under 7763.75 September POC and holding above Monday’s close after printing 7770.75 overnight, which means the reclaim has legs if it accepts here. Acceptance over 7763.75 opens 7765.50 Monday VAH, then the 7770.75 overnight high with 7771.50 prev week POC stacked right on it. Once that shelf gives, 7786.25 Monday high comes before 7814.75 September VAH. Back under 7751.25 overnight VAH, 7746.25 Monday close meets 7743.75 overnight POC, the first place sellers have to prove the break was real. Below 7735.25 Monday VAL, 7729 overnight VAL then 7725.25 prev week low are the last real catches before 7691.25 September VAL.
NQ:
NQ is 30677.0, a couple of points over 30675 Monday VAH with the prev week VAL and Monday POC already behind it, a reclaim that now has to hold value instead of chase it. Accept over 30675 and 30707 overnight high comes up first, then 30718 Monday open and 30740 prev week POC before 30950 prev week VAH. Give back 30658.25 prev week VAL and 30638 Monday POC catches, then 30592.75 overnight VAH and 30567.50 Monday close before 30507.50 Monday VAL. Under 30507.50, the bottom of the wider map is 30440 overnight POC sitting over 30419 overnight VAL.
CL:
Crude is 91.27, three ticks under 91.30 Monday VAL and a couple over the 91.25 Monday low, so it is hanging off the bottom of Monday’s value after the overnight flush to 90.80. Reclaim 91.30 and the 92 POC shared by September and last week is where the fight starts, then 92.22 overnight VAL and 92.58 Monday POC put 93.80 prev week VAH back in the auction. From there 94.00 overnight POC and 94.14 overnight VAH lead to 94.36 Monday VAH. Lose 91.25 and 90.80 overnight low catches first, then 90.22 September VAL where the month’s value ends. Below that, 89.47 prev week low and 83.42 September low are the distant catches.
GC:
Gold is 4187.4, 70 ticks over 4180.40 overnight VAH and a few dollars under the high of the night, so the reclaim is real but unfinished. Hold the value edge and 4193.30 gives way to 4199.70 Monday open, where sellers already won once. Clear 4203.80 and 4279.60 prev week VAL is the next real shelf, with 4380.70 August VAL above the whole stack. Slip under 4180.40 overnight VAH and 4177.20 Monday VAH catches before 4166 overnight POC. Below 4166, the 4143.10 September low is the last session level before 4079.20 August low.
The White Van Stuff
Both index books have more weight stacked above current price than immediately below it, and NQ is already trading through the first of it while ES sits between its 7755 pivot and 7800. Crude trades under its same-day floor while gold is pressing the upper end of its daily band. Four books, four different arguments, very helpful.
ES: The book puts 7755 at today’s pivot, now just under price, with 7750 and 7745 the next marks below and 7730 the same-day floor underneath, while 7800 is the first thing above. Price is 7761.5, over the 7755 pivot and under the 7800.
NQ: NQ has 30675 as today’s cap and is trading two points over it, with 30750 the next stop above and 30600 and the 30590 pivot underneath. Price is 30677.0, over the 30675 cap and under the 30750.
CL: Crude is 73 ticks under 92, where the same-day floor sits, with 90.50 the nearest mark below it and 93 carrying today’s pivot above. Price is 91.27, under the 92 floor and over the 90.50.
GC: Gold is pressing the top of its daily band with 4200 as today’s cap and 4204 as the expected high, while 4175 is the nearest mark underneath. Price is 4187.4, over the 4175 and under the 4200.
Wax on, wax off.
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