Happy Tax Day. THE S&P IS BACK OVER 7000. THAT’S WHAT WE SHOULD BE TALKING ABOUT.
It is starting to get a little silly, isn’t it? 10+% straight up in 2 weeks will always look a bit insane to me. ES broke 7000 yesterday and closed there. Nine sessions ago we were at 6567. That's 436 handles straight up with one pullback that lasted about 45 minutes. Pretty much one of the fastest “It’s so over.” to “We’re so fucking back.” turns i’ve ever seen. The profile keeps migrating higher, and the sellers keep getting absolutely body bagged. The good news is I have not tried to fight this the entire way up, as I would have a few years back.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES opened at 6920 and ripped 88 points to close at 7003. The entire session was a trend day up. Yesterday’s POC landed at 7002, right at the round number. Value area was 6961-7008, with the heavy volume concentrated at the top. The 7000 level that the options data had as a ceiling for weeks finally broke. When the ceiling breaks, it becomes the floor. That’s the test for today.
NQ opened at 25548 and ran to 26003, a 456-point session. Yesterday’s POC was 25923, well below the close at 25993. Value area was 25737-26003. NQ is now above March’s entire range for the second straight session and the momentum is real.
CL collapsed. Opened at 98, sold off to 91.06, and closed at 92.07. Yesterday’s POC was at 96, way up at the top where Monday’s buyers got trapped. The value area was 92.54-98. Iran deal talks are back on the table. Trump said negotiations could restart “within the next two days.” Every headline pushing toward a deal takes $2-3 off crude. The blockade premium is evaporating.
GC pushed to 4870, pulled back, and closed at 4865. Yesterday’s POC at 4820 with value between 4779-4832. Gold caught a bid despite equities ripping. When gold and equities both rally, uncertainty is still in the room.
The Overnight
ES opened Globex at 7008 and tested 7018 before pulling back to 6992 and recovering to 7006. The session POC is 7005 with value at 7002-7009. Price is sitting right on yesterday’s POC at 7002. The 7000 level is the test. If it holds as support after breaking as resistance, the breakout is real.
NQ opened at 26014 and pushed to 26058 before settling to 25971. Session POC at 25995. NQ is building value right at the 26000 round number.
CL opened at 91.66 and flushed to 90.30 before bouncing to 92.33. Session POC at 91.10. Crude continues to migrate lower. Yesterday’s value area is completely above today’s range. The Iran deal hopes are doing real damage to the war premium. Which is probably good for the average person at the moment.
GC opened at 4849, pushed to 4854, pulled back to 4808, and is sitting at 4836. Session POC at 4831. Gold is inside yesterday’s value area, normal rotation after a big session.
The Map
ES
Overnight high 7018 | Session VAL 7002
Session VAH 7009 | Yesterday VAL 6961
Yesterday high 7008 | Prev week VAH 6887
Session VWAP 7005 | Week VAL 6871
Session POC 7005 | Prev week POC 6815
Yesterday POC 7002 | Prev month POC 6967
Two sessions of POC agreement at 7002-7005. The 7000 level is loaded. Yesterday broke it as resistance. Today tests it as support. Above 7009, the overnight high at 7018 is the target. Below 7002, 6967 (March POC) and 6961 (yesterday’s VAL) are the first pullback levels.
NQ
Overnight high 26058 | Session VAL 25974
Week VAH 26043 | Yesterday POC 25923
Session VAH 26019 | Yesterday VAL 25737
Session VWAP 25998 | Prev week VAH 25393
Session POC 25995 | Week VAL 25339
Yesterday VAH 26003 | Prev week POC 25030
NQ building value at 25995-26019. Yesterday’s VAH at 26003 lines up with the session range. If NQ holds above 25974, 26058 (overnight high) then 26100+ is in play. Below 25974, yesterday’s POC at 25923 is the first real support.
CL
Yesterday POC 96.00 | Session POC 91.10
Yesterday VAL 92.54 | Overnight low 90.30
Session VAH 92.43 | Session VAL 90.34
Prev week POC 98.00 | Week VAL 89.72
Yesterday close 92.07 | Month VAL 89.98
Session VWAP 91.45 | Prev week VAL 91.17
CL is in freefall. Value migrating from 96 to 91 in two sessions. The gap between session VAH at 92.43 and yesterday’s VAL at 92.54 is where the fight is. If CL holds above 91.10 (session POC), 92.54 is the recovery target. Below 90.30, 89.72 (week VAL) and 89.98 (month VAL) are the floors.
GC
Yesterday high 4870 | Session POC 4831
Session VAH 4858 | Yesterday POC 4820
Overnight high 4854 | Session VAL 4815
Session VWAP 4845 | Yesterday VAL 4779
Week VAH 4877 | Week POC 4820
Yesterday VAH 4832 | Prev week POC 4848
GC sitting at 4836 inside yesterday’s value area. Session POC at 4831, yesterday’s POC at 4820. If gold holds 4815 (session VAL), 4858-4877 is the upside target zone. Below 4815, yesterday’s POC at 4820 already broke so 4779 (yesterday’s VAL) is the next level.
What I’m Watching
ES: Does 7000 hold as support? The breakout test. Two sessions built their POC here (7002, 7005). If ES holds above 7002 and pushes through 7018, the trend continues. If 7000 breaks back below, the move was a headfake and March POC at 6967 catches it.
NQ: Building value at 26000. Same story as ES. Hold above 25974 and the breakout runs. Lose it and 25923 (yesterday’s POC) is the pullback.
CL: The Iran deal headlines are doing the work. Watch for “talks confirmed” or “ceasefire extended.” Every positive headline takes $2-3 off. Every escalation puts $3-5 back on. The 91 POC is the developing anchor.
GC: Rotation day after yesterday’s push. Inside yesterday’s value. No strong read until it picks a direction out of the range.
The White Van Stuff
The options positioning on equities is bullish. The call ceiling at 7000 ES just got broken, which means the options interest that was stacked there is either rolling higher or getting covered. When the ceiling breaks, the next cluster matters. Heavy interest at 7050, 7025, and 7075 on the upside. The 6950 area is the same-day downside floor.
NQ: Call ceiling at 26000 is being tested. Expected range 25695-26299. Same-day cap at 26000, same-day floor at 25660. Interest clusters at 26100 and 26250 above.
CL: Expected range 85.72-96.84. That’s an 11-point range. The 30-day volatility is still near 97%. The options ceiling at 85 is below current price, which means the options data is repricing crude structurally lower. The floor at 90 is right at where today’s session is building value.
GC: Expected range 4772-4929. Same-day cap at 4850, same-day floor at 4790. Interest clusters at 4900 and 4885 above, 4800 and 4750 below.
ES Options Levels
Upside target 7075 | Today’s cap 7000
Expected high 7068 | Today’s pivot 6980
Upside target 7050 | Nearby below 6975
Nearby above 7025 | Today’s floor 6950
Nearby above 7020 | Expected low 6941
Nearest above 7010 | Downside target 6910
NQ Options Levels
Upside target 26300 | Today’s cap 26000
Upside target 26250 | Nearby below 25900
Nearby above 26200 | Today’s pivot 25790
Nearest above 26100 | Nearby below 25750
Expected high 26299 | Expected low 25695
Today’s cap 26000 | Today’s floor 25660
CL Options Levels
Expected high 96.84 | Nearby below 91.00
Nearby above 94.50 | Downside target 89.50
Today’s pivot 94.25 | Downside target 88.00
Today’s cap 92.00 | Expected low 85.72
Today’s floor 92.75 | Downside target 86.00
GC Options Levels
Upside target 4990 | Today’s cap 4850
Upside target 4950 | Nearby below 4810
Nearby above 4900 | Nearby below 4800
Nearby above 4890 | Today’s pivot 4795
Nearby above 4885 | Today’s floor 4790
Expected high 4929 | Expected low 4772
The Calendar
- Import/Export Prices (March), 7:30 AM CT
- Empire State Manufacturing (April), 7:30 AM CT
- NAHB Housing Market Index (April), 9:00 AM CT
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories, 9:30 AM CT
- Fed Bowman speaks, afternoon
- Beige Book, 1:00 PM CT
Rest of the week: Claims + Philly Fed + Industrial Production (Thu). Baker Hughes rigs (Fri).
EIA Crude at 9:30 is the one that moves CL. Beige Book at 1:00 sets the tone for the afternoon.
The Calendar
- Import/Export Prices (March), 7:30 AM CT
- Empire State Manufacturing (April), 7:30 AM CT
- NAHB Housing Market Index (April), 9:00 AM CT
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories, 9:30 AM CT
- Fed Bowman speaks, afternoon
- Beige Book, 1:00 PM CT
Rest of the week: Claims + Philly Fed + Industrial Production (Thu). Baker Hughes rigs (Fri).
EIA Crude at 9:30 is the one that moves CL. Beige Book at 1:00 sets the tone for the afternoon.
Crude and Gold
CL is repricing. Two sessions ago the POC was at 103.70. Yesterday it was 96. Today it’s building at 91. The market is pricing in a deal. Iran negotiations resuming “within two days” per the White House. If a framework is announced, crude goes to the 80s. If talks collapse, 98+ is back instantly. EIA crude inventories at 9:30 AM CT could accelerate either direction. The volatility is still near 100% on the 30-day. Size accordingly.
GC is holding. Yesterday pushed to 4870, today pulled back to 4808 overnight and recovered to 4836. Session POC at 4831 lines up with yesterday’s VAH. Gold is in a range. The week’s VAH at 4877 is the upside cap. Yesterday’s VAL at 4779 is the downside risk. If the Iran deal materializes, gold fades. If it falls apart, gold runs.
What Could Go Wrong
ES 7002 breaks (session POC, yesterday’s POC). Nine sessions straight up without a real pullback. If 7000 fails as support, March POC at 6967 is the first landing zone, then 6961 (yesterday’s VAL), then air to 6887 (prev week VAH).
NQ 25974 breaks (session VAL). Yesterday’s POC at 25923 is the first stop, then 25737 (yesterday’s VAL). NQ has been leading but if it stumbles, the gaps are wide.
CL reclaims 92.54 (yesterday’s VAL) and holds. If crude stops falling, the “deal is happening” thesis gets questioned and equities lose one of their tailwinds.
The Plan
ES: If ES holds 7005 and builds above 7009, targets are 7018, 7025, 7050. If 7002 breaks, it’s 6967, 6961, 6887. The 7000 breakout test is the whole session.
NQ: If NQ holds 25995 and clears 26019, targets are 26058, 26100, 26250. If 25974 fails, 25923, 25737, 25393.
CL: If CL holds 91.10 and reclaims 91.45, path is 92.07, 92.54, then 96. If 90.30 breaks, 89.72, 89.98, then 88. EIA at 9:30 decides.
GC: If GC holds 4831 and clears 4858, targets are 4877, 4900. If 4815 breaks, 4779, 4753, 4700.
Can you be perfect? Not the P&L. Not the win rate. Can your process be perfect today?
*yes the Billy Bob Thornton theme was on purpose Today.
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