Yesterday looked like a fade-the-rally day. ES finished right at 7100 like somebody flipped a switch into the close, NQ gave back 240, gold got cleaned out for 105. Eight hours later ES is back at 7144, NQ punched through yesterday’s high to 26900, and gold is trying to dig itself out. The overnight reversal trade was a gift if you saw it. Probably continue higher because why the fuck not.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES opened at 7162.50, tried the upside early to 7172.75, then rolled. The back-and-fill died around midday and the afternoon was all sellers, printing a 7085 low and closing at 7100.75 right near the lows. POC built at 7125, value area 7099-7139. Classic distribution-down day without the bounce that usually shows up into the close.
NQ traded the same script, just louder. Ripped to 26885 early, spent the session grinding lower, printed 26551 low, closed 26642. POC at 26719, value 26648-26791. Range was 333 points which is NQ being NQ, but the shape told the story: initial balance held for a while, then the afternoon walked it down.
CL was the opposite. Opened at 87.35 low and rallied to 92.24, closed 91.78 near the highs. POC settled at 89.70. Still driving on the Iran premium and the Strait situation. If you were short crude going into yesterday you’re filing an insurance claim.
GC got taken behind the woodshed. Opened 4803, hit 4813 high, then fell apart. Printed 4685 low and closed 4698.30. That’s a 115-point range, -105 on the day. Every dip-buyer who piled in above 4800 last week is underwater. POC 4750, value 4712-4783.
The Overnight
ES bid from the bell. Globex opened 7130.25, held above 7128, pushed to 7157.25 and is hanging at 7144.50. Back inside yesterday’s value area but also back above yesterday’s POC. Roughly 44 points off the close with no drama.
NQ is the leader. Globex 26777 open, pushed all the way to 26900, currently 26846. That took out yesterday’s high of 26885. If NQ holds that break we’re testing 1D Max territory. If it fails here we’re setting up a nasty lower high.
CL had a tornado overnight. 87.64 low to 91.41 high in Globex. That’s a $3.77 range before 8 AM. Currently 90.82, down a buck off yesterday’s close. Headline risk is the whole read. Every tick is a reaction to something.
GC found a bid. Globex 4772 open, 4764-4790 range, currently 4767.90. About 70 bucks off yesterday’s close. Someone’s trying to say the selloff was overdone. We’ll see if they’re right.
The Map
ES: current 7144.50, pinned on yesterday’s VAH.
Price is sitting right on 7139 VAH with the overnight high 7157 and the 7154 weekly cluster right above. Below, 7125 POC is the line that decides if yesterday’s selling was a pause or a top. Lose 7125 and 7100 close comes fast.
NQ: current 26846.25, above yesterday’s value.
NQ broke yesterday’s high overnight then came back in. The 26883-26885 cluster is the line. Hold above and we’re targeting the expected-high print. Lose 26791 and the gap fills fast. This is the cleaner read of the two indices.
CL: current 90.82, pinned in the middle of a $5 range.
Crude is pure vibes and headlines. 90.42 VAH is holding as support from yesterday’s build. Below 89.70 POC and we’re into lower value fast. Above 91.41 overnight high we retest 92.24. The 87 level is the whole downside. If EIA blows a build in, that’s where we go.
GC: current 4767.90, bouncing out of yesterday’s dump.
Gold is trying to reclaim. 4771 VWAP is the current battle line. Hold above and 4783 VAH is the first test. Lose 4750 POC and 4700 gets tested fast, and 4685 low is where this becomes a real problem.
What I’m Watching
ES: does 7125 POC hold as support? Above 7139 VAH the overnight bid stays alive and we retest 7172 prev day high. Below 7125 and yesterday’s selling was real, 7100 close opens the trap door. Watching for the second test of 7144 VAH as the early tell.
NQ: is the overnight high break real or a fakeout? Above 26885 we’re testing 26976. Back below 26825 and the bounce is done. NQ leads these decisions so watch its behavior at the 26800 line for an early read on what ES wants to do.
CL: does 89.70 POC hold? If yes, we’re building a base for another push to 91.41. If the EIA print at 9:30 comes in bearish and we lose 89.70, air down to 87.90 VAL and 86.53 prev low is the full staircase. I’ve been calling CL a tornado all week and nothing’s changed.
GC: can it reclaim 4783 VAH? If yes, yesterday was an overreaction and 4800 gets tested. If it rolls back under 4750, we’re retesting 4700 and the bounce was a dead cat. Your bet’s as good as mine on this one.
The White Van Stuff
ES: The options picture is neutral-bullish with a compressed cap. The all-expirations call ceiling sits at 7200 and the same-day cap lines up on the same number. The gamma is in the room with us right there and every push above 7175 is going to face a wall. Standard floor and today’s floor both lock in at 7030, roughly where the expected-low print comes in. The heavy interest clusters at 7173 and 7137 are the two magnets that define today’s range. 30-day vol is 16, which means sizing normal but breakout moves from here will get sold faster than they did a week ago.
NQ: The story is different on Nasdaq and more interesting. Price is already above the all-exp call ceiling at 26500, meaning the options chain is positioned for less upside than price has already delivered. The same-day cap moved up to 26960 which coincides with the 26976 expected top. Today’s pivot sits at 26740 with the same-day floor at 26600 right on yesterday’s low area. The 25000 standard floor is a context number, not a today number. 30-day vol 20, higher than ES, reflects the Nasdaq move this week.
CL: Crude’s options picture is exactly what you’d expect when every tick is a headline. Call ceiling way up at 102.74, same-day cap at 97.61 lines up on the expected top. Magnet at 87.59, standard floor and today’s put floor both 87.33, expected low 86.75. the downside cluster is tight and price is sitting $3 above it right now. 30-day vol is 92, crude being crude. Size accordingly.
GC: Gold is in a two-tier setup. Call ceiling way up at 4982, which is a context ceiling not a today ceiling. The same-day cap sits at 4747.94 which is already under price, meaning the options chain caught yesterday’s dump at the close and hasn’t repriced the overnight bounce yet. Magnet at 4777.83 which is basically where we are. Today’s put floor 4683.17 is essentially yesterday’s low, which makes it the line. 30-day vol 25, elevated after yesterday’s move.
The Calendar
Wednesday is EIA Crude Inventory day at 9:30 AM CT. That’s the one that matters given crude’s been in a tornado. MBA Mortgage Apps at 6 AM CT come and go. 17-Week Bill auction at 10:30, 20-Year Bond at noon. Nothing else scheduled that moves equities directly.
What Could Go Wrong
ES loses 7100 prev day close and gets sellers behind it. Below 7085 there’s air straight to prev week POC at 7060 and nobody’s there to buy it until 7030.
NQ fails the overnight breakout. If we’re back under 26791 prev day VAH by 10 AM, the break was a fakeout and 26648 prev day VAL is a magnet. Fast move.
GC loses 4700. Yesterday’s low cracks, 4685 goes, opening a path to 4629 expected low. Gold in that area means the bounce thesis is dead.
The Plan
ES: Hold above 7125 POC keeps the overnight bid alive. First target 7139 VAH, then 7154 week VAH, then 7172 prev day high. Clean break above 7172 puts 7185 prev week high in play. Lose 7125 and 7118 RTH low comes quick, then 7100 close, then 7085 yesterday low. Below 7085 is air to 7060 prev week POC. No trade in the middle.
NQ: Hold 26791 prev day VAH and the overnight breakout stays alive. Target 26885 retest, then 26900 overnight high, then 26976 expected top. Lose 26791 and 26778 VWAP is the first catch. Below that, 26719 POC then 26648 VAL. If we lose 26648 we’re back to 26551 prev day low fast. Watch 26825 prev week POC as the pivot read.
CL: Hold session VWAP 89.80 and 89.70 POC keeps yesterday’s bid alive. Targets 90.42 VAH, 91.41 overnight high, 92.24 prev day high. Lose 89.70 POC and it’s 87.90 VAL then 87.64 overnight low then 86.53 prev day low in a cascade. The staircase is ugly if 89.70 gives way. EIA at 9:30 decides.
GC: Hold 4771 VWAP targets 4783 prev day VAH then 4790 overnight high then 4813 prev day high. Lose 4750 POC and 4712 VAL comes fast, then 4700 round, then 4685 prev day low. Below 4685 is a real problem. Open path to 4629. Gold is binary from here based on whether 4750 holds.
Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.
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