FOMC at 1 pm. Powell at 1:30. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon all print after the bell. Crude ripped four bucks overnight on stalled headlines and gold puked another fifty handles to fresh weekly lows. ES is sitting on yesterday's POC like nothing happened, NQ rallied right back to where it started, and the whole tape is holding its breath for eleven straight hours of catalyst risk. We’ve basically done nothing for the last two days in Equities. Everything is just waiting for the aftermath of Today it seems. We’ll see if it stays.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES opened 7172.00, ran to 7183.00, sold off to 7146.00, then ground back to close 7171.50 right on POC. Outside day, single distribution, value 7155.00 to 7174.75. The whole prior session’s range got tested both directions and price rotated back to where it started. About as nothing of a session as it gets going into a Fed.
NQ opened 27161.00, dumped to 27009.50 inside the first two hours, then ground for the rest of the session to close 27169.25. POC 27170.00, VAH 27233.00, VAL 27071.75. Trend day lower with the back half repaired. 240-handle range, buyers showed up at the lows but never got back into prior value. Pre-print posture.
CL opened 99.41, traded value 99.48 to 100.17, closed 99.91. POC 99.90. Quiet tape on the surface. The whole day was waiting for headlines and the headlines hit after the bell.
GC opened 4592.00, ran to 4615.90, fell to 4570.10, closed 4609.60. POC 4610.00, value 4587.80 to 4613.50. Trend day lower with a save into the bell. Honest to God you would not have known from the close that gold was about to give up another fifty handles overnight.
The Overnight
ES opened Globex 7184.75, tagged 7188.50 inside the first hour, then drifted back inside yesterday’s value to print 7168.00 currently. Sitting on yesterday POC with the cluster of week VAL and April POC stacked five handles below. 109K contracts, normal flow. No commitment either way and that’s exactly right for FOMC morning.
NQ opened Globex 27299.25, made it to 27317.25 above yesterday’s high, then faded the rest of the session to 27222.50 mid-range. Same shape as ES, bigger swing. The four-pack tonight is the actual decision tree. This morning is positioning, not conviction.
CL opened 99.58 and ripped. High 104.37, low 99.56, currently 103.93. Eight straight up sessions and the breakout above the 100 round number that capped everything for a week is finally clean. 57K contracts on Globex, double normal flow. Crude is now above last week’s high and pressing the upper expected range.
GC opened 4618.60, tagged 4621.30 as the high inside the first hour, and never came back. Low 4557.40, currently 4557.90 sitting on the overnight low and right on week VAL. Higher rates pricing killed the safety bid even with the geopolitical tape staying ugly. The “gold goes up on the news” trade broke this week.
The Map
ES (current 7168.00)
The line in the sand is yesterday POC at 7171.50 stacked on top of week VAL at 7165 and April POC at 7160. That’s a three-level shelf inside an eleven-handle band. Holds and the door reopens to 7174.75 yesterday VAH then 7188.50 overnight high then the bigger 7200 zone above. Loses with sellers behind it and 7155 yesterday VAL is the first test, then 7146 yesterday low, then nothing structural until prev week VAL at 7121.75.
NQ (current 27222.50)
Yesterday POC 27170 is also the week POC. One line. Holds and the recovery runs through 27233 yesterday VAH, 27317 overnight high, 27363 week VAH, then the 27375 ceiling. Loses and 27071.75 yesterday VAL is the next test. Through 27009 yesterday low / week VAL is a single shelf and below that is air down to April POC 26750 then prev week VAL 26599. Three hundred handles of empty if both legs of the shelf give.
CL (current 103.93)
Crude is above everything in the recent profile. The 100.45 / 100.47 zone (week VAH stacked on yesterday’s high) is the level the rip has to defend on any pullback. Above 104.37 overnight high there’s open air up to 105 then the upper expected range. Below 100 the move unwinds back into last week’s value fast and the headline-risk premium that built up gets paid back.
GC (current 4557.90)
Gold sits right on week VAL at 4558.60 after a fifty-handle dump. That level is the line and there is nothing meaningful below it in the recent profile until March VAL at 4449.90 a hundred handles south. Reclaim 4587.80 yesterday VAL and the wash-out repaired into yesterday POC 4610. Without that, every bounce is a sell into Powell.
What I’m Watching
ES is the cleanest read. The 7160 to 7171 inflection cluster (April POC, week VAL, yesterday POC stacked) either holds through the open and the morning’s range is the floor, or it gives way and 7146 yesterday low is the next test with prev week VAL at 7121 as the only real backstop after that. Watching whether buyers defend the shelf into the open or lean back and let the Fed decide.
NQ is the one that breaks first if anything breaks. 27170 is the line. Above it the upside cascade reopens. Below it 27071 yesterday VAL is the first test, then 27009 yesterday low / week VAL stacked. The four-pack tonight is the actual decision. Whatever happens this morning is positioning. NQ is the most exposed of the four into the close.
CL is its own animal. Eight sessions of grinding up turned into a four-handle breakout overnight. Watching whether the 100.45 / 100.47 level flips to support on a pullback. Holds and the rip stays alive into 105. Loses and the gap closes back into last week’s value. EIA at 9:30 ignites or kills the move.
GC is a question of whether 4558 holds. Below that is air to March VAL at 4449.90. The long crowd that piled in at 4900 last week is now down 350 handles and looking at no real support until 4500. Watching for a reclaim of 4587 to repair, or a flush through 4527 daily expected low to confirm the unwind.
The White Van Stuff
The white van has a story. Yesterday’s close had ES net options exposure dropping 44.65% in one day, NQ dropping 32.41%. Bullish positioning got unwound hard into the FOMC. P/C ratio on ES at 1.14, NQ at 1.28, both leaning put. The expected daily move is plus or minus 67 handles on ES and plus or minus 345 handles on NQ. That is a Fed-only number and the four-pack tonight blows it up.
For names actually printing: Meta is at 76% IV rank, Amazon at 71%. The options market is pricing both for genuinely large earnings moves. Microsoft and Alphabet are quieter on the expected move but have the cleaner setups. Apple is tomorrow. The aggregate post-close move drives NQ overnight more than anything Powell says today.
ES options levels (current 7168.00)
The same-day cap shifted up 120 points yesterday to 7275. The same-day floor at 7135 sits right under spot. Yesterday’s positioning data shows call sellers loaded heavy at 7150 and 7160 (both saw aggressive buying). The pivot 7150 stacks with the magnet 7145 in a tight five-handle band. Below the floor at 7135 there is a gap down to 7103 expected low.
NQ options levels (current 27222.50)
The 27375 call ceiling stacks with the same-day cap. 27335 sits between overnight high and the ceiling as the next continuation stop. Today’s pivot 27090 stacks with the magnet 27040 and the same-day floor 27000 in a tight 90-handle zone. Heavy positioning loaded yesterday at 27100, 27150, 27190 (call buying above current price). The earnings reaction tonight either confirms that load or violently unwinds it.
CL options levels (current 103.93)
Crude is right under the same-day cap at 105 and the upside expected top at 104.88. Either it cracks 105 with EIA momentum or fades. The 110 call ceiling is where the story would have to fully spiral. Below, 101 is the level the breakout has to hold.
GC options levels (current 4557.90)
Gold sits below the same-day floor at 4583. The downside expected at 4527.55 is the next reference. The 4633 same-day cap is where any reclaim has to fight. Above 4653 magnet and the move repairs back into yesterday’s structure.
The Calendar
FOMC and Powell Presser 1pm/1:30pm CT
After the bell: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon. Apple Thursday. Four of the Mag7 in one shot tonight and the options market is pricing Meta and Amazon for genuinely large moves. The press conference at 1:30 sets the tone for whether equities can hold into earnings or cap and fade.
What Could Go Wrong
ES loses 7146 on a hawkish Fed and the entire 7160 to 7171 inflection cluster fails. Air to 7121 prev week VAL then 7079 with nothing recent to lean on. The shelf flips to a roof and you find out fast.
NQ rejects the 27090 to 27170 zone on the press conf and 27000 cracks. Once the same-day floor goes the gap below sits wide open down through April POC 26750, and you carry that read into the four-pack with zero margin.
Crude prints back through 100 on EIA and the eight-session rip becomes an eight-session retrace. Gold catches a bid on inflation easing and the whole risk-on / risk-off pair trade unwinds in one tape.
The Plan
ES: Hold above 7160 to 7171 and the recovery runs 7174.75 yesterday VAH then 7188.50 overnight high then the 7200 call ceiling, with the 7275 same-day cap above that. Lose 7155 yesterday VAL with sellers behind it and 7146 yesterday low is the first real test, then air to 7121 prev week VAL. Don’t be cute into 1pm. Powell decides if the shelf becomes a roof.
NQ: Hold 27170 yesterday POC and the upside reopens through 27233 VAH, 27317 overnight high, 27375 call ceiling. Lose it and 27071.75 yesterday VAL is the next test, then 27009.50 yesterday low / week VAL with the gap below in play down to April POC 26750. Earnings AMC overrides everything. NQ is the most exposed of the four into the close.
CL: Above 103.93 and 104.37 overnight high breaking with momentum, the rip extends toward 105 same-day cap and the 104.88 expected top, with 110 call ceiling as the spiral-scenario line. Lose 102 and the move unwinds fast back into 100.45 week VAH where the breakout has to defend. EIA at 9:30 is the gate. Don’t fade an eighth straight up session without a real signal.
GC: Below 4558.60 stays the read and 4527.55 downside expected is the next stop, with 4500 round and March VAL 4449.90 underneath. Reclaim 4587.80 yesterday VAL and the wash-out repairs toward 4608 today’s pivot then 4633 same-day cap. Powell decides whether higher-for-longer sticks. Don’t be aggressive until after 1pm either way.
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