The Game Plan: Wednesday, April 8, 2026
One does not simply go from "It's so over to We're so back" without consequences.
Yesterday’s Sessions
ES. 95-point range. Opened 6648, ran from 6572.75 to 6667 and held the high. Closed 6662.75, basically at the top. Built value 6587 to 6632 with the heaviest volume right at 6629. Sellers took it down in the morning, buyers took it back and got the close. Then the ceasefire headline hit overnight and the whole map changed.
NQ. 480 points of range. Low 23941.50 ran through last week’s floor by a tick before snapping back. Closed 24390.50 near the high. POC 24200, value 24127 to 24396. Same character as ES, just bigger swings. Same overnight reset.
CL. Opened 109.20, ripped to 117.63, then crashed back to 110 by the close. 843 ticks of round-trip. POC 115. The whole war premium got stuffed into one session and the close was already starting to fade. Then overnight took it apart.
GC. Trend up day. 4631.90 to 4745.70, closed 4733.30 near the high. POC 4685, value 4652 to 4698. Cleanest of the four going into the headline.
The Overnight
The ceasefire move from Tuesday night kept extending into Wednesday morning. ES added another 35 points since the late-night session and is sitting 6829.75 with the overnight high at 6847.25. The whole 30-point range tonight has been narrow consolidation right at the top of the move. POC building at 6831.50, value 6796 to 6845.75. That tells you the bid is sticky. Inventory is long but it’s been holding up there for hours, not chasing.
NQ extended even harder. Up another 159 points since Tuesday night, sitting 25189.25 with the overnight high at 25257. The Globex range chopped 25119 to 25257 and built value 25015 to 25249. Important: NQ pushed up through the previous month’s POC at 25062.50 sometime overnight and has held above it. That’s the first time in a month NQ traded inside the previous month’s actual range. Either it’s a re-entry to where price lived in March, or it’s a fade-the-failed-breakout setup.
CL kept bleeding. Down another 4 dollars from last night’s level, sitting 93.13. The overnight range was 92.20 to 96.93. Value built around 95. There’s no bounce, the seller is in control, and the structural memory between 91 and 109 is gone.
GC pulled back from the overnight high at 4888 down to 4798 then bounced to 4820. The full overnight range was wider than the equity moves at 74 points, and value built up at 4848 right where last night closed. Trend up but the chase from 4888 stalled and got faded.
The Calendar
Wednesday is the event day. EIA crude inventories 9:30 CT. Fed Daly speech 12:05 CT. FOMC minutes 1:00 PM CT is the catalyst.
Thursday: PCE bundle and jobless claims 7:30 CT.
Friday: CPI 7:30 CT. That’s the print that runs the rest of the month.
The Map
ES
LEVEL PRICE LEVEL PRICE
Overnight high 6847.25 Yesterday close 6662.75
Today VAH 6845.75 Weekly VWAP 6653.02
Today POC 6831.50 Yesterday POC 6629.00
Overnight VAL 6796.00 Monthly VWAP 6627.34
Session VWAP 6795.81 Yesterday low 6572.75
Yesterday high 6667.00
NQ
LEVEL PRICE LEVEL PRICE
Overnight high 25257.00 Yesterday high 24422.00
Today VAH 25249.00 Yesterday close 24390.50
Today POC 25185.00 Weekly VWAP 24366.12
Prev month POC 25062.50 Monthly VWAP 24231.90
Overnight VAL 25015.75 Yesterday POC 24200.00
Session VWAP 25005.49 Yesterday low 23941.50
ES is sitting on the volume shelf at 6831 with the line on a pullback at 6796 (Overnight VAL plus Session VWAP, both at the same spot). Hold above and the highs hold. Lose 6796 cleanly and the air pocket back to yesterday’s range opens up fast. NQ has the same setup but the line is 25015 (Overnight VAL) and 25005 (Session VWAP) basically the same spot, with the prev month POC at 25062 as deeper support.
CL
LEVEL PRICE LEVEL PRICE
Yesterday high 117.63 Today POC 95.00
Yesterday POC 115.00 Today VAL 93.33
Today VAH 97.40 Yesterday low 91.05
Overnight high 96.93
GC
LEVEL PRICE LEVEL PRICE
Overnight high 4872.20 Yesterday high 4745.70
Today VAH 4855.30 Weekly VWAP 4737.50
Today POC 4848.00 Yesterday close 4733.30
Session VWAP 4832.45 Monthly VWAP 4727.56
Overnight VAL 4810.20
Crude is in true price discovery with no structural memory between 91 and 109. The whole map from yesterday is invalidated. Gold pulled in from 4888 to 4820 but the overnight value built up at 4848, so the trend is still intact above 4810.
What I’m Watching
ES is the cleanest read. The 6796 line is where Session VWAP and Overnight VAL converge. Hold it and the bull case stays alive into the FOMC minutes. Lose 6796 with conviction and the trapdoor opens back to 6700 then yesterday’s range. Watching for longs into 6796 if it holds with absorption. Wrong if 6796 breaks before the minutes.
NQ is the same playbook with bigger numbers. 25015 to 25062 is the band where Overnight VAL, Session VWAP, and the prev month POC all stack. That’s the line. Hold it, the path of least resistance is back toward 25249. Lose it and 24800 becomes the next test. NQ moves fast on a flush day, do not try to defend a long if 25000 breaks with volume.
CL is a stay-away until the dust settles. The whole structure from yesterday is invalidated. New range is probably 92 to 100 until the market figures out where fair value lives without the war premium. EIA at 9:30 CT could push it either way. Wait for the print and the reaction candle, do not pre-position.
GC has one read: hold 4810 (today’s VAL) and the trend is intact, with 4872 then 4888 as the next resistance. Lose 4810 and the deeper test is yesterday’s high at 4745 and the prior week POC. Above 4810 is gold’s house.
The White Van Stuff
The options data on the screen is from Monday’s close which makes it less useful today. The market just gapped 2-3% so every level on the books is recalibrating in real time. The expected move on ES going into the data was around 80 points either side and we just printed 167 overnight. Translation: we’re outside what the options crowd was pricing in. That tends to mean either continued momentum (forced unwinds) or a sharp mean revert when the chase stops. At the end of the day, someone got absolutely steamrolled last night. Thats for sure.
The clusters of options interest above ES sit between 6700 and 6800 from the old data, but we’re already through all of them. The biggest spot above on the old books was 6800 and we’re trading 6829. Above us, the next real spot of memory is the prev month VAL at 6964 which is over 130 points away.
For NQ same story. The biggest spot on the old books was 24500 and we’re trading 25189. Above us, the prev month range is 25009 to 25317. We’re inside that range now. The next real spot is 25317 which is the prev month high.
Volatility is going to be elevated all week with the minutes today, PCE Thursday, and CPI Friday. Don’t be a hero on size. Size down and only scale in if the structure confirms.
Crude and Gold
Crude is the cleanest broken read on the board. The 91.05 spike low from overnight took out every level from the past two weeks. Fair value going forward is probably back where it was BEFORE the conflict premium got priced in, which is the 95-100 range. Today’s POC building at 95 lines up with that. Don’t buy the panic, don’t short the bounce. Wait for EIA at 9:30 CT and react to the actual print, not the headline-driven move from last night. The 100 level is a big psychological spot on the way back up.
Gold pulled in from 4888 to 4820 overnight but the value still built up here at 4848. The trend that started over the last two weeks is intact above 4810. Above 4872 is fresh territory and the next memory is the prev month POC at 5060 which is over 200 points up. Below 4810 the deeper test is 4745 (yesterday high) and then the prior week POC. Gold should have given back the safe-haven bid on a ceasefire, but it’s still holding. The bid is winning so far.
What Could Go Wrong
ES loses 6796 cleanly before the minutes. The trapdoor opens back to 6700 first, then yesterday’s range at 6663 to 6660. If the gap fills the overnight rip becomes a head fake.
NQ loses 25000 with volume. There’s nothing structural until 24800 (Session VWAP) and then a deeper air pocket back to 24400 which was yesterday’s high. NQ on a flush day moves 200 points in 15 minutes, do not be the hero.
The Plan
Watching 6796 on ES and 25015 on NQ as the lines for whether the gap holds. Hold them and the bull case stays alive into the FOMC minutes at 1pm CT, with the next real test at 6700 and 24800 if they break. Flat into the 1 PM print, re-engage after the reaction candle prints.
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