The two charts that did all the traveling this month got hit in the dark together. Crude took its third straight red session on the Hormuz reopening talk and gold handed back the three-month high over the same headline, while ES held its value all night and NQ gave the last hour of it back. Permission shows up at 7:30 in a stack: PCE, durable goods, and the GDP do-over. Then NVDA owns the night. I lean long ES while 7680 holds.
The Tape
ES put in a rotation day yesterday, two-sided the whole session, and closed 7691 in the top third with the POC at 7686.75 and value 7679.25 to 7691.50. The overnight respected all of it, built value 7680.75 to 7690.50, popped 7698.50 late, and gave the pop right back. It trades 7685, pressing 7686.75 yesterday’s POC, and the 7680 shelf under it is the whole reason I lean long: yesterday’s value low, last week’s value low, and the overnight’s all printed on top of each other there, three separate auctions refusing to go lower. My problem with the long is the pop that didn’t stick; the night tried 7698.50 and nobody followed. Over 7686.75 the ladder runs 7690.50, 7691.50, 7698.50, 7701.25; under the shelf there’s nothing that matters until 7670, then 7663.25 yesterday’s low.
NQ is the weak one and it isn’t hiding it. Yesterday ran 29414.75 in the first hour, sold the rest of the day into a 29270 close, and left the POC stranded at 29225 with value 29207.25 to 29287.25. The overnight slid to 29095.50, bought all of it back, gave it up, and took it back again; it keeps crossing 29225 and going nowhere, and chop on a stranded POC is a market with no opinion yet. It trades 29222.75, fighting right at the stranded POC after taking the 29207.25 value low back. Hold above it and the night’s ceiling at 29277.75 with 29287.25 behind it is the job; lose 29181 the night’s floor and 29095.50 is back in play.
CL finally cracked: one try at 83.30 early, then a trend day straight down to an 81.12 close with value migrating the whole way, POC 82.34, value 82.05 to 82.59. The night piled on and built entirely new value 79.81 to 80.50, prices Tuesday never traded, with the low at 79.62. Then it took the whole cage back; it trades 81.77 now, up through 81.28 the night’s high and back inside Tuesday’s range. That’s a real repair, but the volume still lives down at 80.30 where the night did its business, so this is price without acceptance until value follows it up. Over 82.05 the 82.34 print is the gate, the one the week and yesterday both built on, then 82.59 and 83.30; back under 81.10 and the cage at 80.50 to 79.81 is waiting, with 79.62 the low that counts twice, night and week.
GC closed 4723.40 on the highs, the three-month top, with the POC at 4695.90 and value 4677.20 to 4715. The overnight wanted no part of it: 4730.90 first, then a straight sell to 4668.80 and new value built 4673.60 to 4706.80 on a 4684 print. The sellers won the night, they moved the whole value area down off a three-month-high close, but the morning already ran the breakdown once: through 4668.80 down to 4653, just over the week’s low, where it found nobody and came all the way back. It trades 4677.6, climbing back at 4677.20 yesterday’s VAL after the night’s 4673.60 floor held. Take 4684 back and 4706.80, 4715, 4723.40 return; lose 4673.60 again and it’s 4668.80, then 4651.80 the week’s low, the one the morning couldn’t reach.
The Calendar
Wednesday, August 26 (all times CT):
- 7:30 Core PCE for July with the headline PCE index, personal income and spending, durable goods for July, and the second estimate on Q2 GDP
- 9:30 EIA crude inventories
- 10:30 17-week bill auction
- After the close NVDA reports
The Plan
ES:
The trade is the 7680 shelf and the plan doesn’t get more complicated than that. Buy-side, the tell is 7686.75, yesterday’s POC, trading and holding above it. That turns the ladder up: 7690.50 and 7691.50, then 7698.50, with 7701.25 yesterday’s high the gate to 7714 and air to 7744, last week’s VAH, over that. If the shelf goes, 7670 is the catch, the week’s POC with the overnight low at 7670.75 sitting right on it. Under 7663.25 yesterday’s low it’s air to 7657.75 and 7655, the two week lows, then 7611 where July’s value begins.
NQ:
The wall is 29277.75 the night’s ceiling, 29287.25 yesterday’s VAH, and 29292.20 last week’s VAL, all stacked. NQ has to take the whole stack to change anything; through it, 29310 and 29414.75 yesterday’s high are the only stops before 29480.50 the week’s high and 29550, August’s POC. It hasn’t earned that yet. Downside, 29181 the night’s floor is first, and losing it puts 29095.50 right back in play. Under that, 29087.50 the week’s VAL, then air to 28946.80 the week’s low, with 28448.20 July’s VAL the last mark that matters.
CL:
Crude’s already doing the work: it took 81.10 and 81.28 back this morning and trades 81.77, inside Tuesday’s range again. The gate is 82.34, the print the week and yesterday both built on, with 82.05 yesterday’s VAL the doorstep. Through the gate, 82.59 the value ceiling and 83.30 the high are next, with 84.36 last week’s VAL above them. The catch is acceptance; the night’s volume lives at 80.30, and until value rebuilds up here the move is only price. Back under 81.10 the cage waits, 80.50 to 79.81, then 79.62, the low the night and the week share; below that, nothing until 76.22 July’s VAL and 73.10 the August low.
GC:
The whole fight is 4673.60 to 4684: the night’s floor, yesterday’s VAL at 4677.20, the week’s VAL at 4681.40, and the night’s print stacked in one zone. Accept above 4684 and the repair runs 4706.80, then 4715 yesterday’s ceiling, with 4723.40 and 4725.70 the prices that made the top and 4755 the week’s high behind them. The counter-argument is the night itself; sellers moved value down off a three-month-high close, and that’s not what strength looks like. Lose 4673.60 and 4668.80 goes with it, then the 4659.60 shelf where August’s VAH and yesterday’s low sit together. Under 4651.80 the week’s low, it’s air to 4614.30 last week’s VAH and 4545 its POC, where the run’s real volume lives.
The White Van Stuff
The equity books are still positive and call-dominated while the two commodity books carry the whole story: crude’s cage rebuilt below price after the war premium came out of it, and gold’s band is wide enough to hold everything the night just did.
ES: ES is working 7680, the same-day pivot, with the 7685 magnet a few ticks over it. The cap is 7750 and the band runs 7631.45 to 7750.05. Price sits right on the magnet at 7685.
NQ: The pivot and the magnet share 29225 and NQ is fighting right at it. Same-day floor 29050, lid 29400. Tight cage for an earnings-print day, and the tape sits 29222.75.
CL: Every same-day mark in this book is still overhead: pivot and magnet at 82.50, lid at 84. The band floor is 79.03 and the night found 79.62. Crude trades 81.77, over the 80.50 with the 82 shelf the first thing in its way.
GC: The same-day floor and pivot share 4625, a long way under where the night landed. Lid 4975, band top 4790.99. Gold sits 4677.6, climbing off the bottom of the fight zone.
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