The Game Plan: Wednesday, July 1, 2026
"Sir, This is the USA and its Gameday. There will be no selling."
Last brief of the week, as I will be traveling. NQ and ES ripped two straight days to claw back most of last week’s tech bloodbath, and now both are handing a piece of it back overnight before the bell. In other news, it’s USMNT gameday. So lets get to it.
The Tape
ES put in its second green day Tuesday, opening 7500, running to 7567, and closing 7545 near the highs on a 7555 POC. The overnight did the opposite, rotating back to the floor of that value, coiling 7510 to 7550 around a 7526 POC, and it sits 7530 just under Tuesday’s 7531 value low. That puts it back at the lower edge of the two-day rip, still holding the bulk of it but slipping off the 7545 close. Bull case is 7519 the overnight floor holds and the reclaim runs 7540, 7545, then 7555 the POC and 7567 the high. Bear case is 7519 fails, 7510 the overnight base and 7495 Tuesday’s low give, and 7474 the week floor opens with 7444 last week’s POC beneath it.
NQ was the engine again Tuesday, opening 30047, knifing to 30599, and closing 30513 on the highs with a 30529 POC. The overnight gave back a chunk, fading to 30299 and parking value at the 30435 VWAP, and it sits 30360 right on 30357 Tuesday’s value floor. It rode the two green days to the top edge of June’s whole value area and is now testing whether that floor holds as support. Bull case is 30357 holds and 30504 the overnight POC and 30513 the close come back, then 30529 the POC and 30599 the high. Bear case is 30299 the overnight bottom gives and 30015 the week POC is the first magnet, then 29890 last week’s recovery high and the 29700 shelf below it.
CL rejected 71.6 Tuesday and closed 70.09, then the overnight took it apart, knifing to poke 68.22 under the floor before bouncing to sit 69.14. That drop rebuilt value all the way down at 68.73, below Tuesday’s entire range, with round 70 lost overhead and the 68.55 multi-month floor right underfoot. It sits pinned between the two, having tested below the line the prior week and the month both bottomed on and recovered it. Bull case is 68.55 holds and the reclaim runs 69.51 Tuesday’s POC, 69.77, then round 70 and 70.51 the Tuesday value top. Bear case is 68.55 cracks with sellers behind it, 68.22 the overnight low.
GC ranged under its POC Tuesday, closing 4030, then flipped the script overnight, dumping to 3973 and ripping the whole move back to sit 4045. That V-shape rebuilt right over the 4041 to 4042 cluster where Tuesday’s POC, the week POC, and June’s value low all stack, the safe-haven bid I wrote off last week suddenly back. It sits pressing the overnight high with the only clean air of the four sitting just above. Bull case is 4042 holds and 4049 the week top and 4051 Tuesday’s value top open the run to 4078 the high, then 4106 last week’s ceiling. Bear case is 4042 fails and 4030 the close, 4025 the week floor, and 4012 the week low give back into the overnight zone toward 3975.
The Calendar
Wednesday, July 1 (all times CT):
- 6:30 Challenger job cuts for June
- 7:15 ADP private payrolls for June
- 8:00 Fed Chair Warsh speaks at the ECB forum in Sintra
- 8:45 S&P Global manufacturing PMI, final
The Plan
ES:
ES rotated back to the floor of Tuesday’s value overnight and sits 7526, coiled on the overnight POC with 7531 Tuesday’s value low right on top. Hold 7519 the overnight value low and the two-day rip keeps its base. Above 7540 the overnight ceiling and 7545 Tuesday’s close, the reclaim runs at 7555 the Tuesday and week POC, then 7567 Tuesday’s high, with 7599 last week’s high and 7647 June’s value top stacked in the air above. Lose 7519 and 7510 the overnight low gives, then 7495 Tuesday’s low is the gate. Under 7495 it is 7474 the week’s value low, then 7451 June’s value low sitting on 7444 last week’s POC where the sellers lived all month, then 7408 last week’s floor before 7307 June’s low.
NQ:
NQ gave back a chunk of the rip overnight and sits 30360 right on 30357 Tuesday’s value floor, the lower edge of the two green days. Hold 30299 the overnight bottom and the base under the rip holds. Above 30389 the overnight value floor and 30504 the overnight POC, the repair runs at 30513 Tuesday’s close and 30529 Tuesday’s POC, then 30553 the overnight high and 30599 Tuesday’s high, with the air above open to 31100 June’s high. Lose 30299 and 30015 the week POC is the first real magnet, then 29890 the prior week’s value high is the gate. Under 29890 it is 29700 where the prior week and the whole month parked their volume, then 29392 the prior week’s value floor, 29265 June’s value low, and 28506 June’s bottom where the month did its business.
CL:
Crude broke down overnight, knifing to poke 68.22 under the floor before bouncing to sit 69.14 on the overnight line, the last of the premium bleeding out as the Doha talks resume. Reclaim 69.51 Tuesday’s POC and 69.77 the overnight ceiling and round 70 comes back, the line last week and June both built their volume on, then 70.51 Tuesday’s value top and 70.91 the week POC ahead of 73.06 last week’s value top. Hold 68.55 where last week and the whole month bottomed and the floor keeps a base under it. Lose 68.55 and 68.22 the overnight base is the last shelf, and under that there is no profile left, just discovery toward 67 the next round number.
GC:
Gold put in the overnight reversal, knifing to 3973 and then ripping the whole thing back to sit 4045, pressing the overnight high and back over the 4041 to 4042 cluster where Tuesday’s POC, the week POC, and June’s value low all stack. Hold 4042 and the safe-haven bid that vanished last week is back in the room. Above 4049 the week top and the overnight high, 4051 Tuesday’s value top opens the air up to 4078 Tuesday’s high, then 4106 the prior week’s ceiling with 4365 June’s POC stranded well above. Lose 4042 and 4030 Tuesday’s close gives, then 4025 the week floor is the gate, then 4012 the week low, 3981 the prior week’s low, and 3975 where the prior week and June share a bottom sitting on 3973 the overnight low.
The White Van Stuff
ES owns the calm book again, the expected day under a percent wide and price sitting between the 7505 pivot below and the 7550 shelf of interest overhead. The 7600 same-day cap is where the sellers are stacked and the 7483 expected low is the mark a real fade has to reach, with the 7400 put floor the deep line beneath.
NQ carries the loud book, the expected day near 1.5 percent wide with the volatility still cranked and positioning tilted the most bullish of the four. Price sits over the 30300 pivot with the 30600 same-day cap the first wall overhead and the 30977 expected high the stretch, the 29000 put floor the deep line well beneath.
CL is the book pressing down into its floor, the 70 pivot lost overhead and the 71.11 expected high a full dollar above where price is trading. The 68 to 68.50 interest shelf is the near support the options crowd drew, the 65 put floor the deep line if the 68.55 structure lets go.
GC book turned with price, the overnight reversal reclaiming the 4029 pivot from below and pushing up under the 4084 expected high. The interest thins out fast above with the 4109 shelf the next real mark, while the 3962 expected low and the 3984 put floor sit stacked under the rebuilt overnight value.
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