Balance. Balance. and more balance. CPI came in cool yesterday, the July rate hike everybody was sweating is probably off the table, and equities are leaning on it with NQ out front pressing 29900, where the month built its volume. Crude is bid again on fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, off doing its own thing. Gold is the odd one out, getting dumped in the middle of the exact headlines it is supposed to love. Makes no sense. It never does. Long equities while the numbers behave, respect the crude breakout, no trust in the metal. Perhaps it’s finally time to stop looking at equities. Personally, I am still validating and optimizing my new swing model toy. Not ready for primetime yet; when it is I’ll probably just become a big ag or soybeans guy.
The Tape
ES ground out an up day Tuesday, ranging 7556 to 7603 and closing 7590 right on its POC with value stacked 7578 to 7596. The overnight pushed through to 7613, a fresh high over yesterday’s top, and backed off to sit 7600, holding above yesterday’s whole value area. Bull case is 7590 the POC and 7596 the value ceiling hold, and above 7603 yesterday’s high and 7610 the week high it opens 7627 last week’s high. Bear case is 7596 fails and 7590 gives, then 7578 the value floor and 7570 the week value low, then 7556 yesterday’s low. Under there 7537 the July floor and 7531 last week’s floor stack, and it sits 7600.
NQ did its repair Tuesday, running from 29567 up to 29896 and closing 29785 on its POC, buying back most of Monday’s flush. The overnight kept going, tagging 30062 well above yesterday’s high and pulling back to sit 29910, right on 29900 where the month built its volume. Bull case is 29900 the month shelf and 29868 the value ceiling hold, and through 30062 the overnight high it opens 30076 the month value top then 30094 last week’s high. Bear case is 29868 fails and 29785 the POC gives, then 29741 the value floor and 29571 the week’s low shelf, then 29567 yesterday’s low. It sits 29910, nose above the month line.
CL held its breakout Tuesday, chopping 77.84 to 80.97 and closing 79.70 on a 79.55 POC, digesting Monday’s run without giving it back. The overnight stayed bid, ranging 79.30 to 80.93 and sitting 80 on top of the whole thing. Bull case is 79.55 the POC and 79.30 the overnight base hold, and above 80.97 yesterday’s high it is thin air with almost nothing built overhead. Bear case is 79.30 fails and 78.64 the lower value edge gives, then 77.84 yesterday’s low and 76.54 the week’s lower shelf. Under there it is a long drop to 72 where last week and the month parked their volume, and it sits 80.
GC had its up day Tuesday and gave a chunk back, running to 4112 and closing 4062 on a 4085 POC, the classic tag and fade. The overnight kept selling, sliding to 4023 and sitting 4034, all the way back under yesterday’s value and its POC. This is the chart the safe-haven bid is supposed to lift and it keeps getting dumped instead, a full shelf under last week’s 4097 floor. Bull case is 4062 the close and 4078 the value shelf reclaim, and above 4085 the POC it opens 4097 last week’s base then 4108 yesterday’s value top. Bear case is 4025 the week’s value base and 4023 the overnight low give, then air to 3993 the week low, and it sits 4034.
The Calendar
Wednesday, July 15 (all times CT):
- 7:30 PPI, the inflation follow-through after yesterday’s cool read, plus Empire State manufacturing
- 7:45 Fed’s Williams
- 9:00 Fed Chair Warsh back on the Hill
- 9:30 EIA crude inventories, the one crude actually trades
- 12:00 Fed’s Cook
- 1:00 Beige Book
- 5:30 Fed’s Musalem, after the close
PPI at 7:30 and the crude inventory number at 9:30 are the two that move the tape today.
The Plan
ES:
ES is holding above 7590, where yesterday’s POC and the week’s POC stack on the same price, with 7600 sitting on top of it this morning. Above 7596 yesterday’s value ceiling the first job is 7603 yesterday’s high, then 7610 the week high. Clear those and 7627 last week’s high opens, then 7647 last month’s value top in clean air above. Below 7590 the POC gives and 7578 the value floor is first, then 7570 the week value low and 7556 yesterday’s low. Lose that and 7537 the July floor and 7531 last week’s value base stack together, with 7451 last month’s floor the number under everything.
NQ:
NQ is pressing 29900, the shelf the month built its volume on, with the overnight high up at 30062 the line to clear. Above 29900 and 30062 the breakout extends to 30076 the month value top, then 30094 last week’s high in open air. Below 29868 yesterday’s value ceiling the tape rotates back to 29785 the POC, then 29741 the base of value. Lose that and 29571 the week’s low shelf catches it, then 29567 yesterday’s low. Under the low there is 29396 the month floor, then 29350 where last week parked its heaviest volume, with 29265 last month’s base the deep one.
CL:
Crude is the mover and the game is whether it holds the shelf. 79.55 yesterday’s POC over 79.30 the overnight low is the base, and above 80.97 yesterday’s high and the week high it is thin air with nothing built overhead. Below 79.30 the tape starts filling back in, 78.64 the lower value edge first, then 77.84 yesterday’s low. Lose that and 76.54 the week value low is the last shelf, then a long vacuum down to 72 where last week and the month both stacked their volume, then 68 the deep value shelf beneath it.
GC:
Gold is the weak one this morning, pressing 4025 the week’s value base with 4023 the overnight low right underneath. Hold 4025 and the climb back runs 4042 last month’s value base, then 4062 yesterday’s close and 4078 the value shelf it fell out of, then 4085 the POC. Clear those and 4097 last week’s base is the proof the fade repaired, with 4108 yesterday’s value top overhead. Below 4025 the week base and 4023 the overnight low, there is air straight to 3993 the week low with nothing built in between, and it sits 4034.
The White Van Stuff
This is a headline tape with the positioning split four ways. The equity books are calm and pinned, ES priced for a three-quarter-percent day and the Nasdaq for nearly double that with a jumpier lean. Crude blew through the top of its whole structure again overnight so its cage now sits underneath price as support, while gold’s protection is stacked above a market sliding away from it.
ES: ES is sitting right on its same-day cap at 7600 with the magnet at 7570 just under it, so the session is coiled in a tight band. The structural cap way up at 7700 is not in play today and the expected day runs 7534 to 7648. It sits 7600, pinned on the number.
NQ: NQ carries the wider, jumpier book and price sits above the 29750 magnet and put floor with the same-day cap up at 30150. The structural cap is way off at 31000 and the expected day is a big one, 29366 to 30215. It sits 29910, between the magnet and the cap.
CL: Crude’s book is the loudest on the screen and price cleared the top of it again overnight. The old structure from 79.5 on down now sits under spot as support, and overhead there is almost nothing until the 81 same-day cap, then the 83 expected high. It sits 80, over its flipped structure.
GC: Gold’s whole structure sits above a market falling away from it. The magnet is up at 4090 into the 4100 cap, so the entire call side is overhead while price presses toward the 4000 floor. It sits 4034, under everything that matters.
Anyone else ready for fall yet?
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