GM Strait of Hormuz Monitooors. The ceasefire is over. The president said it from a NATO podium after three tankers got hit, and every chart on the board woke up somewhere new. Crude put its war bid back on in one night, ES handed back the wall it spent three weeks earning, NQ traded through its month, and gold, the chart I called the strongest thing on the screen Sunday, got sold with everything else because expensive oil feeds the same rate math that has been squatting on this tape all summer. Daddy is home from vacation and ready to trade. Let’s get into it.
The Tape
ES never got going Tuesday, opening 7580, failing at 7588 early, and bleeding all session to close 7553, back under the 7594 wall it had just broken out over. The overnight held the close for a few hours, then dumped with the headlines to 7468 and built its value low around a 7486 overnight POC before bouncing. It sits 7508, under last week’s POC at 7556 and standing almost exactly on 7497, last week’s value floor. Hold 7497 and the recovery attempt runs 7512 the session VWAP, 7541 where overnight value tops out, and the stack from 7545 to 7556. The overnight already traded through July’s old floor at 7479, so losing 7468 opens 7451 where June’s value bottomed, with 7409 behind it.
NQ bounced to 29686 in the first hour Tuesday and spent the rest of the day giving it back, closing 29395 on a 29540 POC. The overnight snapped the shelf, trading through 29274 last week’s low and 29266 the June value shelf in one move, bottoming 28910 before buyers finally showed up. It sits 29144, under everything that mattered this month, with overnight value built all the way down at a 29000 POC. Get back over 29185, the overnight value ceiling, and the buyers get to attack the broken band between 29210 and 29274. Stay under it and 28910 is the only print between price and 28506, June’s low.
CL was already the story before the president spoke, running a trend day Tuesday from a 69.13 open to a 71.88 close with the buying stacked into the bell. The overnight gapped it to 72.37 and ran it to 75.30, the premium everyone spent two weeks selling out of it back in one night, and it sits 73.65 right on its VWAP with overnight value parked at a 74.00 POC. Above, 75.30 is the only print, and the next real structure is 78.81, June’s value top from the war months. Below, 72.69 the overnight value floor guards 72.51 Tuesday’s high, the edge of everything that traded before the headline. Everything above 71.60 last week’s high is acceptance of the new picture.
GC got rejected at the double print again Tuesday, tagging 4192 in the first hour and breaking to a 4102 low before closing 4125, its first real down day since the pattern started. The overnight kept selling to 4050, and the V-trade that bought every one of these flushes last week did not finish the job this time, stalling at 4080 where it sits now, under its 4100 overnight POC. No safe-haven bid on a war headline. The rate story owns this chart right now, not the fear story. Reclaim 4100 and 4125 for a repair toward 4145 week value, lose 4050 and it is 4041 where last week’s POC and June’s floor of value stack, then 4012 and 3976 underneath.
The Calendar
Wednesday, July 8 (all times CT):
- 9:00 Wholesale inventories for May
- 9:30 EIA crude inventories
- 12:00 10-year note auction
- 1:00 FOMC minutes
The Plan
ES:
The morning question is 7497, last week’s value floor, the shelf price is standing on. Accept above 7512 the session VWAP and 7541 the overnight value top, and the repair runs 7545 Tuesday’s value floor, 7553 the close, and the 7555 stack where the overnight high sits on last week’s POC. That stack is the line between a bounce and a real repair, and above it 7567 Tuesday’s POC and 7580 Tuesday’s value top bring the 7594 wall back into the conversation. Hold 7497 without reclaiming 7555 and the day is a low rotation, rallies getting sold into the stack. Lose 7497 and 7486 the overnight POC goes first, then 7468 the overnight low, and under that the July profile is finished: 7451 June’s value floor, air to 7409 last week’s low, and 7307 June’s low under everything.
NQ:
NQ broke its month overnight, so the plan is about the shelf it broke: 29210 the week low, 29266 June’s value floor, and 29274 where last week bottomed, all stacked in one band. Reclaim 29185, the top of the overnight profile, and that band is the fight, with acceptance back inside it targeting 29329 Tuesday’s value floor, then 29395 the close and 29447 the overnight high. Above those it is 29540 Tuesday’s POC and 29596 Tuesday’s value top, with 29700 June’s POC the roof on any repair this week. Fail at the band and the sellers stay in control, rotating back through 29000 the overnight POC. Lose 28910 the overnight low and there is nothing on the profile until 28506.
CL:
Crude rewrote its chart overnight and the profile has to catch up, so the map is simple. Hold 72.69 the overnight value floor and the new range builds between there and 75.30 the overnight high, with 74.00 the overnight POC the pivot inside it. Accept above 74.00 and a push through 75.30 finds nothing local, with 78.81 June’s value top the next real structure on the chart. Lose 72.69 and 72.51 Tuesday’s high is the gate, the edge of the old world. Under that the unwind gets real: 71.81 the overnight low, 71.60 last week’s high, then 70.47 Tuesday’s POC and 70.00 where June parked its volume, the month POC and the round number in one spot.
GC:
Gold’s line is the 4100 stack: the overnight POC, July’s value floor at 4097, and Tuesday’s 4102 low all within a few dollars, and price is under all of it. Reclaim 4100 and hold it, and the climb back runs 4119, then 4125 where Tuesday’s close sits on last week’s value top. Above 4125 the broken range comes back one level at a time: 4145 the week’s value floor, 4157 the week POC, 4178 Tuesday’s POC, and the 4187 to 4192 double print that started this slide. Stay under 4100 and bounces are sales into the stack. Lose 4050 the overnight low and 4041 catches it first, last week’s POC sitting right on the bottom of June’s value, then 4022 and 4012 under it, and 3976, June’s low, the floor of the whole summer.
The White Van Stuff
Every book on the board got run over from a different direction overnight: crude closed above its whole map, gold fell out the bottom of its band, ES woke up under its entire same-day stack, and NQ flushed its floor and crawled back over it.
ES opens under its whole same-day book for the first time in weeks: the 7545 pivot, the 7550 same-day cap, even the 7525 same-day floor are all overhead. It sits 7508, just over the 7500 put floor, with the expected floor at 7496 right under it.
NQ finally got the test its put-heavy book kept pricing: the overnight traded through the 29000 floor, the same number on both the standard and same-day maps, and came back over it. The 29370 pivot is lost overhead and 29600 is the sellers’ line on the map. It sits 29144, holding above the floor it flushed.
CL cleared everything: the 72.50 same-day cap and the 72.12 expected top are both under price now, and the map above is one line, the 76 cap. It sits 73.65 between a cleared book and the last ceiling anyone drew.
GC is the mirror image, trading under the 4088 same-day floor and under the 4090 expected low, the only market on the board below its band. The 4133 pivot and the 4163 same-day cap stack overhead. It sits 4080 with only thin interest at 4063 and 4038 between it and the 3988 put floor.
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