GM frens. How about yesterday? That was a fun one. Perfect day for me to trade. Right in my wheelhouse and thats probably why I won the NinjaTrader Arena Cup on-air competition.
The hottest annual inflation number in three years printed this morning, and the market bounced on it. Sellers leaned on the tape all night into the print, the core read came in soft, and the shorts got their floor pulled. Energy did the damage in that number, which makes crude the actual inflation chart now. Gold got marched behind the woodshed overnight and is trading at December prices. Both index books are still priced for wide swings, so the first move after the open doesn’t have to be the real one. I’m pretty sure Daddy Powell told me inflation was “defeated” in November 2023 and yet here we are hearing talking heads speaking again about hikes.
The Tape
ES unloaded Tuesday from a 7458 open down to 7247 and then bought the entire flush back to close 7391, right under its 7393 POC. The overnight sold it again, bleeding from 7394 to 7306 into the print before the soft core read snapped it back to 7358. That leaves a dense stack at 7392 to 7394 overhead, Tuesday’s POC, Tuesday’s close, and the overnight high all parked together, with overnight value 7334 to 7392 holding the bounce. The session pivot is 7353.
NQ had the wildest Tuesday on the board, flushing from 29737 to 28227 and recovering to close 29116, a round trip that left its 29723 POC stranded up top. The overnight rejected 29169 and sold to 28610 into the number, then bounced to 28917. Tuesday’s value floor at 28786 and the overnight’s at 28783 sit stacked right under price, a double shelf, and last week’s low at 28974 hangs directly overhead. It’s trading below the entire prior week with the first lid at 28974.
CL is the strong one. Tuesday it flushed to 85.94, undercut the May base at 86.35, got bought immediately, and closed 88.30 back above its 88.16 POC. The overnight ran to 90.42 before settling to 89.22, holding above all of Tuesday’s value. Inventories hit at 9:30 and crude comes into them sitting on the 89 line where the overnight built its volume.
GC never got the memo about the bounce. Tuesday it bled from 4367 to close 4282, the overnight sold it from exactly that close down to 4152, and the weak bounce to 4183 is where it sits. That’s December prices, below every value area on the chart, with overnight value 4178 to 4232 the only structure it has left. The line it has to win back is 4192.
The Calendar
- 7:30 AM CT, CPI (May), already printed: headline hot on the year, core soft on the month
- 9:30 AM CT, EIA crude inventories
- 12:00 PM CT, 10-Year Note Auction
The Plan
ES:
ES comes out of the print at 7358, between the 7334 overnight value floor and the 7392 to 7394 stack where Tuesday’s POC, Tuesday’s close, and the overnight high are parked. Reclaim the stack and the repair runs 7404 Tuesday’s value ceiling, then 7416 week POC and 7420 May POC glued together, with 7524 the prior-week shelf the bigger prize. Hold 7334 and the morning bounce keeps its base, with 7338 the May floor reinforcing it from below. Lose 7334 and 7306 the overnight low is the gate, then 7276 Tuesday’s floor and 7247 the flush low are the last shelves before May’s base at 7199.
NQ:
NQ sits 28917 under last week’s entire range, with the 28974 prior-week low directly overhead and a double floor underneath where Tuesday’s 28786 and the overnight’s 28783 stack. Reclaim 28974 and the test moves to overnight value at 29146 and the 29169 high, then 29240 the May POC and 29450 week POC, with 29948 last week’s floor the line that actually repairs the damage. Hold the 28783 shelf and the post-print bounce stays intact. Lose it and 28610 goes back on the table as the gate, with 28337 May’s floor and 28227 the flush low the last structure underneath.
CL:
Crude is the only one trading above yesterday’s value, sitting 89.22 after the overnight run to 90.42 stalled. Through 90.42 it gets 90.86 last week’s floor, then 91.30 week POC, with 92.47 May’s value shelf the bigger reclaim above. Hold 88.50 overnight value and the strength story survives into the 9:30 inventories. Lose it and 88.16 Tuesday’s POC then 87.40, where Tuesday’s value base and the overnight low sit together, are the supports, with 86.35 the May low and 85.94 Tuesday’s flush underneath.
GC:
Gold has nothing under it. The overnight took it to 4152, prices last seen in December, and the bounce to 4183 hasn’t even reclaimed 4192 yet. Win that back and the repair road is long, 4232 overnight value ceiling, 4260 Tuesday’s value base, the 4281 overnight high sitting right on Tuesday’s close, then 4304 week value shelf, with 4409 the May low and 4439 last week’s floor the lines that would say the bleed is over. Fail at 4192 and 4178 is the only shelf before 4152 goes, and below 4152 the chart is blank.
The White Van Stuff
Both index books are still priced for wide swings and both lean defensive, with put floors price has been living underneath. Crude’s surface is the tightest on the board, a clear floor under the May base and a heavy lid starting just overhead. Gold’s book is the ugly one, put-heavy by multiples, and price spent the overnight below lines the book said should hold.
ES broke its 7400 put floor overnight and that line is now the first overhead test, with the 7430 same-day pivot and 7450 same-day cap stacked behind it. The drop ran through the 7309 expected low by a hair and bounced.
NQ has its 28975 magnet and 29000 cap sitting right on top of last week’s low, a triple-loaded zone directly overhead. Above it the 29600 same-day pivot and the 29655 expected high are the stretch, below it the 28579 expected low nearly got tagged overnight at 28610. The book leans short into tonight’s earnings, so a held reclaim of 29000 would be the first tell the lean is wrong.
CL has the cleanest book on the board, an 86 same-day put floor sitting under the May base and a lid that starts at the 89.50 same-day cap and runs through 90, 91, and the 91.75 magnet. The 91.24 expected high got within reach overnight and faded.
GC broke its 4174 put floor overnight, tagged 4152, and crawled back above the line, so 4174 is all that stands between price and a book that’s empty below 4164. Everything else on its surface is overhead now, the 4198 expected low included, with the 4224 floor from today’s book and the 4313 pivot flipped to resistance.
Be smart. Be Patient. Have fun. Do your job.
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