Happy FOMC Day to those who celebrate. Welcome to the new Fed Daddy Guy as the wife calls him. Rotational day made for an interesting Tuesday. ES fading off its own record close and NQ handed back most of the rip, and this morning all four charts are coiled into the tightest overnight ranges they have shown in a week. The market could move on Warsh’s comments for the first time in a presser. So head on swivel. In lighter news tonight XYZ and I will once again be bringing you MidweekVibes, an EDU trading show at 8pm CT. I may even have AI-MAXXXED a new preroll video. Subscribe to the YouTube here - but I will be bringing it live on Substack as well.
The Tape
ES faded its record close Tuesday, opening 7627, tagging 7636, then selling the whole session to close 7588 on the lows with value 7591 to 7621 around a 7614 POC. The overnight did nothing to fix it, holding a tight 7585 to 7612 band and parking 7593 right on Tuesday’s value floor, under the 7614 POC and the matching week POC overhead. Reclaim 7606 and 7614 and the bounce targets 7621 the value ceiling, 7633 the week’s, then 7647 June’s value top. Lose 7582 where Tuesday’s low sits on the week low and 7553 last week’s high opens the gap, 7509 the ceiling under it, then 7499 last week’s POC. It sits 7593, coiled under value.
NQ took the worst of it Tuesday, dumping from a 30812 open to 30302 and closing 30310 near the lows, a hollow profile with the 30450 POC stranded up top and value 30324 to 30673. The overnight bought it back, basing 30418 to 30584 and reclaiming that 30450 POC where it sits 30461 now. Through 30535 the week’s value base and 30584 the overnight high, the path runs 30673 Tuesday’s value top and the 30695 May POC into the 30850 week shelf. Below 30418 the overnight low and 30302, the Tuesday low stacked on the week low, it thins out fast toward 30139 last week’s high, then 29983 and the 29524 last-week POC where the volume lives. It sits 30461, back on the line it lost.
CL keeps grinding lower, closing Tuesday 76.87 on a 76.0 POC with value 75.53 to 77.05, then carving a fresh 74.59 low overnight before bouncing back to 76.69. That puts it right on Tuesday’s value with the 76.0 POC underneath and the whole pre-deal chart stranded miles overhead. Reclaim 77.05 the ceiling and 78.07 Tuesday’s high and the first repair is on, but the real volume does not show up again until 80.37 the week’s top and 87.38 last week’s floor. Lose 75.50 the week low and 74.59 the overnight bottom and there is no profile underneath, only round numbers nobody has traded in months. It sits 76.69, bouncing inside a chart with no floor built yet.
GC chopped a tight Tuesday, running 4333 to 4376 and closing 4355 with value 4346 to 4368 around a 4359 POC, no trend either way. The overnight tightened it further, holding 4335 to 4355 and sitting 4344 just under Tuesday’s value low with the 4340 week floor right beneath. Reclaim 4359 the POC and 4368 the value high and 4376 Tuesday’s high opens, then 4391 the week high and 4409 last month’s low are the gates that mean something. Lose 4333 where Tuesday and the week share a low and 4284 last week’s value top opens the air, 4231 last week’s close, then the 4175 POC down deep. It sits 4344, the tightest coil on the board.
The Calendar
- 7:30 AM CT, Retail Sales (May), the morning’s real number
- 9:30 AM CT, weekly crude inventories
- 1:00 PM CT, the Fed’s rate decision and fresh projections, dot plot attached
- 1:30 PM CT, FOMC press conference
The Plan
ES:
ES is coiled 7593 under the 7614 stack where Tuesday’s POC and the week POC sit together, the line a record-close fade left it under. Reclaim 7606 the overnight open and 7614, and the repair runs 7621 Tuesday’s value ceiling, 7633 the week’s, then 7647 June’s value top and 7649 the week high, with 7660 May’s POC and 7693 the June high the air above that. Hold 7591 the value floor and the dip stays a coil. Below 7582 fails, the floor Tuesday shares with the week, and the gap opens to 7553 last week’s high, then 7509 the ceiling and 7499 last week’s POC where the prior leg did its business, with 7420 last week’s floor.
NQ:
NQ clawed back the 30450 Tuesday POC overnight after the worst session of the four, sitting 30461 with the bounce intact as long as it holds there. Through 30535 the week’s value base and 30584 the overnight high, the recovery targets 30662 May’s floor, 30673 Tuesday’s ceiling, and the 30695 May POC, with the 30850 week shelf and 30915 high the bigger prize. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable against the overnight base. Lose 30418 the overnight low and 30302 the week low, and a break drops the floor toward 30139 last week’s high, then 29983 the value high and the 29524 last-week POC where the real volume sits.
CL:
Crude is trying to build a base it has not earned yet, holding 76.69 on the 76.0 Tuesday POC after the overnight probed a fresh 74.59 low and got bought. Reclaim 77.05 the ceiling and 78.07 Tuesday’s high and the repair argument starts, but the next real volume is stranded way up at 80.37 the week’s top, then 87.38 last week’s floor and 91.30 last week’s POC, which tells you the whole story of this collapse, with 92.47 May’s floor the marker above that. Hold 75.53 the value base and the bounce keeps its footing. Lose 75.50 and 74.59 the overnight bottom and there is no chart underneath.
GC:
Gold is wound tighter than anything else on the screen, sitting 4344 just under the 4359 Tuesday POC and the matching week POC, with no trend to lean on either way. Reclaim 4359 and 4368 the value high and 4376 Tuesday’s high comes back, then 4391 the week high and 4409 last month’s low are the gates that turn this chop into a recovery, with 4474 and 4563 the lines far above. Hold 4340 the week’s floor and the range stays intact. Lose 4333 the shared low and 4284 last week’s value top opens the air, then 4231 last week’s close and the 4175 POC where the prior month built its base.
The White Van Stuff
Two charts are dead calm and two are not. The index books are about as quiet as they get going into a Fed day, positioning bullish and the expected moves tight, both pinned mid-cage well under their caps. Crude’s book got run through the floor again with every same-day line it had now overhead, while gold sits glued to its magnet with the cap a hair above, the tightest pin going.
ES has a calm book under a tape that just faded, the whole same-day surface stacked overhead from the 7651 expected high up to the 7700 cap with nothing urgent in between. Under price the 7570 floor is the near shelf, and the 7515 magnet.
NQ‘s book reads the same, bullish and wide, sitting right on its 30450 same-day pivot with the 30765 expected high and the 31000 cap the lines a breakout would aim at. The 30000 put floor and 29975.
CL‘s book is still the loudest of the four, the cap parked way up at 79.82 today and 84.62 the magnet, both a different planet from where price trades. The only line near price is 75.78 where the same-day floor and pivot stack, and below the 73.84 expected low the book thins to nothing.
GC is the most wound-up book on the screen, price glued to its 4333 pivot and 4328 magnet with the 4383 cap a breath overhead and the 4280 expected low the floor that matters. The whole thing is balanced, calls and puts close to even.
New man at the podium. Be safe and have fun out there.
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