Violent day yesterday, and now the tape finally stopped to catch its breath. The overnight quit going straight down, bounced everything off the lows, and now the indexes are sitting in the wreckage trying to decide if Monday and Tuesday were the whole move or just the warmup. None of it really matters until tonight. Micron prints after the bell, and the entire AI trade is leaning over its screens waiting for one earnings line. SpaceX came back to reality too. Really quiet overnight session to be honest. Summer is here and I’m not trying to stay at charts all day.
The Tape
ES sold the chip rout Tuesday, ranging 7415 to 7491 and closing 7435 near the lows. The overnight stopped the bleed, holding 7439 and grinding back to 7467 with value rebuilding around 7448. It reclaimed Tuesday’s 7444 POC and the 7435 close and now presses the top of today’s thin value at 7458. Above 7467 the overnight high opens 7468 Tuesday’s value top and 7491 the session high; below 7441 and 7431 Tuesday’s value floor the air runs to 7307 June’s low. It sits 7456, back on top of yesterday’s value.
NQ was ground zero Tuesday, knifing from 30047 to close 29650 at the lows as the memory names got torched. The overnight bounced it off 29734 up to 29884 and value rebuilt at 29820, the first footing buyers have found since the selling started. It sits 29802, back above Tuesday’s 29730 POC and inside today’s value under the 29871 top. Above 29871 and the 29884 overnight high the repair points at 30047 Tuesday’s high, then 30353 last week’s value floor. Below 29742 and the 29577 Tuesday low nothing is built until 28506 June’s low where the month’s volume sits.
CL rolled to the new front month overnight, and the whole old chart went with it, prices resetting a couple bucks lower into the August contract. There is no profile built here yet, the session starting fresh at 70.98 with the round numbers the only marks that travel across the roll. The 75 area belongs to a different contract now, so the playable cage is 72 and 73 overhead, 70 underfoot. Hold 70 and the rebuild starts from here; lose it and 69 is the next round number with open air beneath. It sits 70.98, building its first session on the new contract.
GC got sold right next to the stocks again, then the overnight took it apart, sliding from 4145 down to 4022 as the rate-hike crowd buried any safe-haven bid. It sits 4028, below the whole prior session and below June’s value, the 4072 month low now a ceiling overhead. Reclaim 4064 today’s value low and 4086 the session POC for a push toward 4114 the overnight high and 4120 today’s value top. Below 4022 the overnight low there is 4000 round, then air. It sits 4028, leaning on the lows with the month’s value stranded above.
The Calendar
- 9:00 AM CT, New Home Sales for May
- 9:30 AM CT, EIA crude oil inventories
- 12:00 PM CT, 5-year note auction
- 3:00 PM CT, bank stress test results
The Plan
ES:
ES reclaimed Tuesday’s 7444 POC overnight and sits 7456 pressing the 7458 value top, the bounce trying to prove itself. Above 7467 the overnight high and 7468 Tuesday’s value top, the upside opens 7491 the session high, then 7543 the week and month POC and 7558 last week’s value floor where the real volume waits. Hold 7448 today’s POC and the dip stays a bounce. Below 7441 today’s value low and 7431 Tuesday’s value floor it rolls back over, 7420 then 7415 the Tuesday low next. Under there nothing is built until 7307 June’s low where the month did its business.
NQ:
NQ found its first footing at 29820 after Tuesday’s knife and sits 29802 back above the 29730 POC. Above 29871 today’s value top and the 29884 overnight high, the repair runs to 30047 Tuesday’s high, then 30353 last week’s value floor and 30450 last week’s POC stacked above. Hold 29742 today’s value low to keep the bounce alive. Below it and the 29577 Tuesday low fails, the air opens with nothing structural in the way. The next real shelf is 28506 June’s low where the month’s volume base sits.
CL:
Crude rolled to the new front month and trades 70.98 with no profile built yet, the old contract’s chart stranded a couple bucks overhead. The playable structure is round numbers until the session fills in, 72 then 73 the marks above, 70 the line underfoot. Hold 70 and the rebuild gets a base toward 72. Lose 70 and 69 opens with open air beneath on the fresh contract.
GC:
Gold gapped through everything overnight and sits 4028, below June’s value with the 4072 month low now a ceiling. Reclaim 4064 today’s value low and 4086 the session POC for a push toward 4114 the overnight high and 4120 today’s value top, then 4140 Tuesday’s value floor above. Hold 4022 the overnight low to keep a base under it. Lose 4022 and 4000 round is the next line, with air beneath into the 3900s. The prior session’s 4145 POC is a long way back up now.
The White Van Stuff
The whole screen is positioned for more downside after two days of it. The put side is loaded across the indexes, gold gapped clean below its entire book the same way the chips did, and crude’s whole surface reset with the roll. Calm on the S&P, loud everywhere else.
ES has the quietest book of the four, the expected day only 0.87 percent wide and price sitting mid-band. The 7440 same-day floor is just beneath, the 7503 expected high and 7525 magnet the marks that matter on a bounce.
NQ owns the loud book, the expected day 1.74 percent wide and the volatility still cranked. Price sits on the 29800 interest shelf, the 30183 expected high and the 29875 same-day floor both flipped overhead after the gap down.
CL reset its whole surface with the roll, the band running 71.18 to 75.24 on the prior contract with price already below the floor of it. The 72.50 same-day floor and 74.25 same-day cap are the playable marks above, the 70 put floor the deep line right under price.
GC did what the chips did, gapping clean below its whole book. The 4091 expected low and 4100 put floor are both stranded overhead now, the 4000 put floor the deep line with nothing same-day built beneath price.
Rule #76 No Excuses. Play like a champion.
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