Hopefully everyone is still long the trend that’s printed records the whole way up, and this morning NQ is doing the heavy lifting again, stamping a fresh high overnight while ES coils a hair underneath. The circus is back in commodities. Crude ripped a fourth straight leg through 97 on the Iran-talks risk premium; gold still can’t buy itself a bid. All this being said, summer trading is here. Nothing seems to stop this train. Yet I can’t shake this feeling we may finally get a meaningful pullback. One that lasts more than one 30-minute period on the tape. Don’t be the first moron to short it outside of a day trade, but that tingle is hitting me.
The Tape
ES ran a fresh 7632 high Tuesday and closed 7623 right on the POC, a clean trend-up finish a step behind NQ’s pace. The overnight balanced it out, coiling 7602 to 7629 and parking value 7615 to 7626 just under all of Tuesday’s, sitting 7616 on session VWAP. It’s pinned under the 7624 POC that doubles as the week POC, the one index lagging while NQ runs ahead. Reclaim 7621 and the 7632 high comes back with the 7650 round in clean air above. Lose 7613 yest VAL and 7602 overnight low and it rotates to 7599 week VAL and 7595 prev week POC.
NQ ran the cleaner trend Tuesday, stamped 30721 and closed 30707 to finish above value, then the overnight pushed straight through to a fresh 30785 high. Value built up at 30672 to 30747 with price holding 30768 near the high, clean discovery above everything Tuesday printed. It’s the leader and it already cleared the shelf that capped it, sitting in air with only the round numbers overhead. Holding 30710 today POC keeps 30785 and the push toward 31000 live. Lose 30672 overnight VAL, then 30584 yest VAL, and it slips to 30498 week VAL then 30303 prev week VAH.
CL ran a fourth straight leg Tuesday, closed 93.69 near the highs, then the overnight extended it through 97 fresh. Value built way up at 94.87 to 96.58 with price holding 96, well above Tuesday’s 92 to 94 range. It’s pressing the top of the expected band with the 98 May POC the magnet overhead and last week’s 86 base a distant memory. Hold 96 today POC and the 97 overnight high gives way toward 98 then the 100 round. Lose 94.87 overnight VAL and 93.95 yest VAH cracks back toward the 93.76 POC.
GC got sold again Tuesday, faded off 4564 to close 4517 at the low with the POC pinned 4532. The overnight pushed lower to 4467 then bid back to 4494, building a 4480 to 4509 value below all of Tuesday’s. It’s sitting right under the 4500 shelf and the 4517 week POC, still without the bid everything else has. Reclaim 4500 and 4509 overnight VAH and the 4532 shelf is the line to win back. Lose 4480 overnight VAL, 4476 week low and 4467 overnight low opens the air beneath.
The Calendar
- 7:15 AM CT, ADP Employment Change (May)
- 8:45 AM CT, S&P Global Services PMI Final (May)
- 9:00 AM CT, ISM Services PMI (May), Factory Orders (April)
The Plan
ES:
ES is coiling 7616 right under the 7621 today POC and the 7624 yest and week POC stacked on top of it, the line it has to reclaim while NQ runs ahead. Above 7621 the 7626 overnight VAH and 7629 yest VAH come first, then 7632 the Tuesday and week high before it’s air to the 7650 round. Hold 7613 yest VAL and the coil stays pointed up, lose it and 7602 overnight low goes, then 7599 week VAL and 7595 prev week POC the gate back into last week’s range. Below 7595 fails 7576 week low and it’s a longer step down to 7536 prev week VAL and 7420 May POC where the real volume sits.
NQ:
NQ is the leader, holding the 30710 today POC after stamping a fresh 30785 overnight, price pinned 30768 near the high. Above 30710 the 30747 overnight VAH holds the discovery, and through 30785 it’s air to the 31000 round with nothing structural in the way. Lose 30710 and 30698 yest VAH goes, then 30672 overnight VAL and 30584 yest VAL into 30561 overnight low. Below there 30498 week VAL is the gate, and past it the slide runs 30303 prev week VAH into 30000 prev week POC and 29954 May VAH where the deeper shelf sits.
CL:
Crude parked 96 right on the today POC after the overnight ran 97 fresh, a fourth leg up off last week’s base. Above 96 the 96.58 overnight VAH and 97 overnight high give way toward 98 the May POC overhead, then the 100 round. Lose 96 and 94.87 overnight VAL goes, then 94.46 week VAH and 93.95 yest VAH into the 93.76 yest and week POC. Below 93.76 fails 93.45 overnight low and it’s back to 92.47 May VAL and 92.14 yest VAL, the value crude ripped out of.
GC:
Gold bid back to 4494 on the 4490 today POC after the overnight flushed 4467, still under everything Tuesday built. Above 4490 the reclaim has to climb 4500, 4509 overnight VAH and 4516 yest VAL into the 4517 week POC, then 4525 overnight high and the 4532 shelf where last week and last month both built their POC. Lose 4480 overnight VAL and 4476 week low and 4467 overnight low is the gate, and under it there’s air down to 4409 prev week and prev month low stacked. This stays a reclaim-or-bleed read until gold wins back the 4532 shelf.
The White Van Stuff
Equity vol is dead calm into the records while the commodity surfaces do all the moving. NQ punched clean through the cap that pinned it and it flipped to support underneath, the breakout-continuation read that’s carried the whole run. Crude’s expected band blew out wide on the fourth leg up and gold’s whole surface is stacked overhead again with the safety bid still gone.
ES sits balanced under the 7650 cap with the 7595 magnet the only real pull below. The book is dead even into a calm tape, nothing screaming either way until ISM moves it.
NQ already cleared the 30670 cap overnight and it flipped to support, the line the whole breakout sits on. The expected range runs to 31100 and the book leans long, nothing catching a fade until the 30325 band edge.
CL vol is screaming into the rip, the expected band alone runs 90.41 to 97.11 and price is pressing the top of it. The 95 cap already broke to support underneath, with the structure stacked all the way up to the 105 cap.
GC flipped its whole surface overhead as the bid stayed gone, the 4499 pivot and 4505 magnet now the lid right above price. Positioning leans slightly negative, which is exactly why the bounces keep getting sold.
Small green is still green. Get out clean. Stay ready.
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