NQ tagged 29447 overnight, fresh print, and then promptly got walked back to 29055 before catching a bid. Got slapped back. Probe and reverse on the highs into the morning catalyst. Crude is still doing what crude does, ranging and waiting. Sitting at 102.54 above the 100 line that capped for three weeks. Gold gave back the entire Tuesday close and is heavy at 4687. Didn’t have rountripping 700pts in NQ on my weekly bingo card.
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The Tape
ES put in a wide CPI session Tuesday, opening 7414, diving to 7363, then rallying the whole range back to close 7428 right at the highs. Value built at 7426.50 POC inside 7383.25 VAL to 7433.50 VAH, so the print absorbed the move and parked value at the top of the range. Globex pushed to 7454.25 fresh, ticked the week-high cluster, and rolled back to 7422 right at overnight POC 7420. Decision tape just like Monday.
NQ ran the same Tuesday playbook with twice the violence, opening 29213, diving to 28742, then bouncing back to close 29174 mid-range. Value built lower at 28888 POC with VAH 29144.75 and VAL 28806.75, so the dive printed the bulk of the volume. Globex then ripped to 29447 fresh, immediately rolled all the way back to 29055, and bounced to 29245 sitting just under overnight POC 29295. The wick is the tell.
CL continued the move, opening 100.76, holding the 100 line all session, ranging 100.68 to 102.73 and closing 102.38 just under the highs. POC 101.60 with VAH 102.11 built right under the high. Globex pushed to 102.75 fresh, currently 102.54 above all near-term structure. Three weeks of failed pushes above 100 and the line finally flipped.
GC put in the give-back, opening 4712, diving to 4645, then rallying the whole range back to close 4723 right at the highs. POC 4686.90 with VAH 4705.50 built lower, so the value never came along with the close. Globex opened 4707, tagged 4723.10, rolled to 4682, and is sitting 4687 right back at yesterday’s POC. The whole close-rally just got unwound.
What I’m Watching
ES: Tuesday’s wide range absorbed the print, value parked at 7426 POC right at the highs, and Globex pushed fresh to 7454 before rolling back into today’s value. Bull-case is 7420 overnight POC holds, 7428 yesterday close reclaims, and the upside opens through 7432 week POC, 7440 overnight VAH, into 7454 the Globex high stacked with 7454.75 week high and 7454.50 month VAH at the same triple-stack ceiling. Above 7454 the trifecta breaks and the upside reopens toward 7475 nearby cap, then 7495 expected ceiling and the 7500 structural call ceiling. Bear-case is 7420 fails, 7412 overnight VAL and 7410 overnight low crack, and the staircase opens through 7395 week VAL, 7383 yesterday VAL, 7363 yesterday low. Past 7363 the air opens to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume lives. Fed speakers run midday through the close.
NQ is whether the overnight probe was the high or just the first leg. Tuesday opened 29213, dove to 28742, closed 29174, then Globex ripped fresh to 29447 and immediately rolled back to 29055. Bull-case is 29245 holds, 29295 overnight POC reclaims, and the rebuild works through 29343 overnight VAH, 29400 week POC, into 29447 the failed-breakout retest with 29480 week VAH right above. Above 29480 we open 29556 today expected high and the 29600 cluster toward 29750 in clean air. Bear-case is 29295 stays a cap from above, 29245 fails, 29174 yesterday close cracks, 29144 yesterday VAH stays a cap, and the cascade opens through 29086 overnight VAL, 29055 overnight low, 29015 week VAL, 29001 prev week VAH. Past 29000 the staircase runs through 28888 yesterday POC, 28806 yesterday VAL, 28742 the deep print, then open air below to 28670 prev week POC and 27880 May POC where the real volume parked. Probe and reverse on the highs is a real read. Don’t fight the print.
CL is the cleanest read on the board. The 100 line that capped for three weeks finally flipped from above to below, Tuesday closed 102.38, Globex pushed 102.75 fresh, currently 102.54. Bull-case is 102 holds as the May POC, the 102.13 prev week VAH and 102.75 Globex high cluster breaks, and the upside opens to 104.22 May VAH where the multi-week ceiling lives, then 106.36 expected high with 106.76 prev week high as the wider structural test above. Bear-case is 102 fails, 101.95 overnight VAH cracks, 101.60 yesterday POC rejects from above, and the staircase opens through 101.28 yesterday VAL, 100.75 overnight VAL, 100 the flipped line. Lose 100 and the rally unwinds through 98 the week POC, 97 magnet level, then 96.14 week VAL and 95 prev week POC catch the deeper fade. The 9:30 print is the override and inventory is a coin flip after yesterday’s API.
GC is whether 4682 was the give-back floor or the start of a deeper unwind. Tuesday opened 4712, dove to 4645, then rallied the whole way back to close 4723 right at the highs. Globex tagged 4723.10, rolled to 4682, and now sits 4687 below overnight VAL 4695. Bull-case is 4682 holds, 4695 reclaims (overnight VAL stacked with the same-day put floor at this line), and the rebuild works through 4705 the week POC / overnight POC / yesterday VAH cluster, 4719 overnight VAH, into 4723 the yesterday close / Globex high gate, then 4734 overnight high stacked with 4735 week VAH. Bear-case is 4695 holds as resistance, 4688 April VAL cracks, 4682 overnight low fails, then 4670 the magnet level / week VAL stack opens through 4647 May VAL and 4645 yesterday low, with 4618 expected low and 4584 prev week VAL the deeper test. The post-rally give-back is the worry. If equities crack on the print gold catches a bid; if the print confirms cool the long crowd keeps trimming.
The Calendar
- 10:30 AM CT, Fed Collins speech
- 12:00 PM CT, 30-Year Bond Auction
- 12:15 PM CT, Fed Kashkari speech
- 6:00 PM CT, Fed Logan speech
The Plan
7420 overnight POC, the line value parked at across Tuesday’s CPI session. Above 7420 holds we target 7426 yesterday POC and 7428 yesterday close stacked, then 7432 week POC into 7440 overnight VAH. Above 7440 we extend through 7454 the Globex high / week high / month VAH triple stack, with 7475 and 7495 expected ceiling above that. Below 7420 fails and 7412 overnight VAL cracks, then 7395 week VAL stacked with 7394 May POC, then 7383 yesterday VAL and 7363 yesterday low open the deeper test. Past 7363 the air opens to 7282 prev week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits.
The Bracket: Trigger 7420 (overnight POC, where value parked through Tuesday’s CPI session). Above 7420 holds the cascade runs 7428 yesterday close, 7432 week POC, 7440 overnight VAH, 7454 Globex high, week high, and month VAH stacked on one line, 7495 expected high. Below 7420 fails through 7412 overnight VAL, 7394 May POC / 7395 week VAL, 7383 yesterday VAL, 7363 yesterday low, then air to 7282 prev week VAL. Voided by chop in 7415 to 7430 with no clean break.
29295 overnight POC is the reclaim line and the gate for revisiting the overnight breakout. Above 29295 holds we target 29343 overnight VAH, 29400 week POC, then 29447 the failed-breakout retest stacked with 29480 week VAH and 29556 today expected high above. Below 29295 the line caps the reclaim attempt and 29245 fails, 29174 yesterday close cracks, and the staircase opens through 29086 overnight VAL, 29055 overnight low, 29015 week VAL, 29001 prev week VAH. Past 29000 the staircase opens through 28888 yesterday POC, 28806 yesterday VAL, 28742 yesterday low, then air to 28670 prev week POC and 27400 April POC where the real volume lives. Probe and reverse on the highs is a real read.
The Bracket: Trigger 29295 (overnight POC, the reclaim line and gate to revisit the overnight breakout). Above 29295 holds the path opens to 29343 overnight VAH, 29400 week POC, 29447 failed-breakout retest, 29480 week VAH, 29556 expected high. Below 29295 fails through 29174 yesterday close, 29086 overnight VAL, 29055 overnight low, 29001 prev week VAH, with open air below to 28670 prev week POC and 27400 April POC. Voided by chop in 29240 to 29320 with no clean break.
102 May POC, the line the entire rally either defends or gives back. Above 102 holds we target 102.13 prev week VAH stacked just above, then 102.75 the Globex high / yesterday high cluster, then 104.22 May VAH where the multi-week ceiling lives. Above 104.22 we extend toward 106.36 expected high and 106.76 prev week high. Below 102 fails and 101.28 yesterday VAL, 100.75 overnight VAL crack, then 100 the flipped line is the support test. Lose 100 and the rally unwinds through 98 the week POC, 97 magnet level, then 96.14 week VAL and 95 prev week POC catch the deeper fade. The 9:30 inventory release is the override.
The Bracket: Trigger 102 (May POC, the line the rally either defends or gives back). Above 102 holds the upside runs through 102.13 prev week VAH, 102.75 Globex / yesterday high cluster, 104.22 May VAH, 106.36 expected high, 106.76 prev week high. Below 102 fails through 101.28 yesterday VAL, 100.75 overnight VAL, 100 flipped line, 98 week POC, then deeper to 96.14 week VAL and 95 prev week POC. Voided by chop in 101.80 to 102.30 with no clean break.
4695 overnight VAL is the line price sits just under after the overnight unwind. Above 4695 holds we target 4705 the week POC / overnight POC / yesterday VAH cluster, then 4719 overnight VAH, then 4723 the yesterday close / Globex high gate, with 4734 overnight high stacked at 4735 week VAH right above. Above 4735 the upside reopens to 4754 expected high, 4770 May VAH, 4775 prev week high. Below 4695 holds as resistance, 4688 April VAL cracks, 4682 overnight low fails, then 4670 the magnet level / week VAL stack catches. Past 4670 the air opens through 4647 May VAL, 4645 the previous session low, then 4618 expected low and 4584 prev week VAL where the long crowd from the April peak either defends or starts puking inventory. Your bet’s as good as mine on the precious.
The Bracket: Trigger 4695 (overnight VAL, the line price sits under after the overnight unwind). Above 4695 holds the cascade runs 4705 week POC / overnight POC / yesterday VAH triple stack, 4719 overnight VAH, 4723 yesterday close / Globex high, 4734 overnight high stacked with 4735 week VAH, 4770 May VAH, 4775 prev week high. Below 4695 fails through 4688 April VAL, 4682 overnight low, 4670 week VAL / magnet level, with clean air down to 4647 May VAL, 4645 yesterday low, 4584 prev week VAL. Voided by chop in 4685 to 4705 with no clean break.
The White Van Stuff
The post-CPI cage expanded and the structure shifted under every instrument. ES sits 7422 between the 7400 nearest below and the 7425 today’s pivot just above with daily expected range plus or minus 0.93% (about 69 handles, 7357 to 7495). NQ is the sneaky one. The 29000 structural call ceiling sits well below price after weeks of holding above (positioning still call-dominated, positive territory), with the 29400 same-day cap sitting tight below the 29447 failed-breakout retest line. NQ daily band is plus or minus 1.32% (about 386 points, 28783 to 29556). Crude sits 102.54 above all near-term structure with the 105 today’s cap as the next overhead cluster, daily band 98 to 106.36. Gold dumped below the 4695 same-day put floor and 4700 today’s pivot overnight, both flipped into resistance, with the 4725 today’s cap and 4750 nearest above stacked, daily band 4618 to 4754. Morning catalyst at 7:30 sets the cage.
ES sits 7422 right between the 7425 today’s pivot just above and the 7400 nearest below where positioning anchors price into the open. Above 7422 the 7425 pivot is the first reclaim test, then 7450 today’s cap stacks ahead of the 7475 nearby above. Past 7475 the 7495 expected ceiling lines up with the 7500 call ceiling at the same level, then 7525, 7530, and 7550 heavy interest sit in the upper expected band. Below price the 7400 nearest below catches first, then 7385 magnet level stacks with 7380 today’s put floor (standard floor stacked here). Past 7380 the 7375 nearby below cracks, then 7357 expected low and 7340 heavy interest form the lower band before the deeper cascade. Daily band about 69 handles either side. The print sets the cage.
NQ sits 29245 with the 29250 nearest above stacked right at price after the overnight 29447 probe rolled back. Above 29250 the 29300 nearby above catches first, then 29400 same-day cap (the line that capped the overnight breakout) sits ahead of the 29500 upside target. Past 29500 the 29556 expected high tops the daily band, then 29600 and 29750 heavy interest sit in clean air. Below price the 29110 today’s pivot is the first test, then 29100 heavy interest catches at the 29000 call ceiling (the structural cap that broke weeks ago, now back in range and acting as the flipped support test). Below 29000 the 28990 magnet level, 28900 today’s put floor, and 28850 standard floor stack tight before 28783 expected low opens the deeper cascade. Daily band about 386 points either side. Probe and reverse on the highs is the read.
Crude options got rewritten by the rally. The 100 call ceiling that capped three weeks of pushes flipped to support below price after Tuesday’s close above. CL sits 102.54 above the 102 upside target with the 105 today’s cap and 105.50 heavy interest as the next overhead cluster, then 106.36 expected high tops the daily band before 109 and 110 sit in clean air. Below 102 the 101.50 today’s put floor (standard floor and same-day pivot stacked together) is the line the reclaim sits on, then 101 nearby below and 100 the flipped support catch the deeper fade. Past 100 the 99 nearest below, 98 expected low, and 97 magnet level cascade through to the structural floor below. Daily band plus or minus 4 handles either side.
Gold’s options structure broke down overnight. The 4700 today’s pivot and 4695 same-day put both flipped from support to resistance as price dumped to 4682, sitting 4687 right between them. Above price the 4700 pivot is the first reclaim test, then 4725 today’s cap stacks ahead of the 4750 nearest above and 4754 expected high. Past 4754 the 4775 heavy interest, 4800 call ceiling, and 4820 heavy interest sit in the upper expected band. Below price the 4670 magnet level catches first, then 4650 heavy interest, then the 4625 nearest below / 4620 nearby below pair, then 4618 expected low at the floor. Past 4618 the 4600 heavy interest is the deeper test before the structural cascade. Daily band plus or minus 68 handles either side.
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