Happy GPU earnings day to those who celebrate. Tuesday was the puke, and crude finally cracked. NQ had a wild session with a lovely dump, pump, and then dump again in one session into a fresh 28663-month low, ES tagged 7354 the week low, gold lost the entire 4513 layer into a 4467 print. Overnight bid everything back, and CLN26 finally rolled the other way after three sessions of squeeze. Fed Minutes 1pm CT and we’ll see if the bounce sticks. Nothing matters Today outside of headline risk and finally the lord and savior of the spoos reporting earnings later.
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The Tape
ES traded 7416 to 7354 Tuesday closing 7378 on POC, the 7395 Monday gate gave and 7363 prev week low cracked. Globex bid back to 7416 and 7407 sits above 7391 yest VAH with 7385 today’s pivot stacked. Bull-case is 7385 holds into 7415 today’s cap and 7447 expected hi. Bear-case is 7385 fails and 7363 gates air to the 7327 May VAL stack and 7282 prev week VAL.
NQ got rolled 463 points 29126 to 28663 Tuesday, the 28849 Monday gate failed and 28742 prev week low cracked into a fresh month low at 28663. Globex ripped to 29169 overnight and 29130 sits ABOVE 29110 today’s cap, the line that capped the whole prev week. Bull-case is 29110 holds as flipped support into 29161 and 29250 then 29356 prev day high. Bear-case is 29110 fails back through 28983 yest VAH and 28910 today’s pivot with 28697 the gate to 28663 yest low.
CL closed 104.48 Tuesday at the high after a 2.27 range, the continuation of the multi-session rip from 99. Overnight handed back four handles fast to 100.87 and price sits 101.63 below the 102.25 put floor. Bull-case is 102.25 reclaims and 103.36 the magnet catches into 104.10 yest VAH and 105 the ceiling. Bear-case is 102 stays broken, 100 the line crude defended four weeks breaks, with 99.45 the 1D Min gating 98.94 week low.
GC destroyed Tuesday closing 4487 below 4504 POC after an 84-handle 4551 to 4467 range, the 4520 floor gave and 4513 prev week low cracked. Globex bid back to 4508 and 4500 sits below 4555 today’s pivot. Bull-case is 4500 holds into 4504-4514 then 4555 today’s pivot and 4572 expected hi. Bear-case is 4500 fails through 4485 VAL into 4470 put floor and 4450 standard floor where the April long crowd goes underwater.
The Calendar
- 6:00 AM CT, MBA Mortgage Applications (already cleared)
- 7:00 AM CT, Fed Paulson Speech
- 9:15 AM CT, Fed Barr Speech
- 9:30 AM CT, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 10:30 AM CT, 17-Week Bill Auction
- 12:00 PM CT, 20-Year Bond Auction
- 1:00 PM CT, FOMC Minutes
The Plan
ES:
7385, today’s pivot stacked tight with the 7391 prev day VAH and 7372 today POC where Globex came back through after Tuesday’s puke. Above 7385 holds we target 7398 today VAH, 7407 last, then 7415 today’s cap and 7416 overnight high reopen 7425 magnet level into 7447 expected hi with 7500 the structural call ceiling capping the band. Below 7385 fails and 7378 prev day POC / 7372 today POC stack gives, then 7363 prev week low gates air to 7354 yest low / week low, 7350 put floor / standard floor at the same line. Below 7350 the cascade opens 7327 May VAL, 7308 today expected lo, 7282 prev week VAL, and 7160 April POC the deeper magnet.
NQ:
29110, today’s cap and call ceiling stack where Globex broke ABOVE overnight, the line that capped the whole prev week and now sits as flipped support. Above 29110 holds we target 29130 last, 29161 today VAH stacked with 29169 overnight high, then 29250 magnet level into 29312 today expected hi into 29356 prev day high in clean air. Above 29356 the upside reopens 29426 prev week POC and the 29570 prev week VAH. Below 29110 fails back through 28983 prev day VAH, 28910 today’s pivot gives, 28800 prev day POC catches, then 28697 prev day VAL / 28700 the put floor stack gates air to 28663 yest low / month low, 28524 May VAL, 27622 prev month high, 27400 April POC the deeper staircase. The fresh break above call ceiling overnight is the read going in.
CL:
102.25, today’s put floor that already broke and now caps the bounce after the four-handle overnight reversal. Above 102.25 reclaims and 103.11 prev day VAL catches, 103.36 prev day POC stacks, 104.10 prev day VAH and 104.45 today RTH high stub lead into 104.87 yest high then 105 the standard call ceiling. Below 102.25 stays broken and the 100.87 overnight low gives, then 100 the line crude spent four weeks defending breaks, 99.45 the 1D Min and 99.08 prev week VAH stack, with 98.94 week low gating air to 92.83 the wk low and 88.75 the long-term magnet far below. EIA crude 9:30 CT lands right in the middle of this unwind.
GC:
4500, the round level Globex parked at after the puke from 4551 to 4467 tore through prev week structure. Above 4500 holds we target 4504 prev day POC, 4508 overnight high, and 4514 prev day VAH, then 4555 today’s pivot and 4572 today expected hi reopen 4600 the call ceiling. Below 4500 fails through 4485 prev day VAL, 4470 today’s put floor catches the next leg, then 4467 yest low / overnight low stack gives air to 4465 magnet level and 4450 standard floor where the April long crowd finally goes underwater. Past 4450 the cascade opens to 4400 round and the April low at 4388 in clean structure. Yields are the trade and the long crowd from prev month POC 4812 is still bleeding out.
The White Van Stuff
Yields up, dollar firm, oil vol bid hard on the CLN26 reversal, equities and gold rebuilding from below structure. The whole positioning cage flipped sides overnight as crude rolled and the inflation-impulse trade unwound. ES expected ±0.94%, NQ ±1.34%, CL is the wide one with 1D Max 108.85 and 1D Min 99.45 against a 102.25 put floor that already broke.
ES sits 7407 right under 7415 today’s cap and above today’s pivot at 7385. The 7350 put floor stacks with the 7308 today expected lo as the lower band edge.
NQ punched through 29110 today’s cap overnight, the line that capped the whole prev week. The big positioning pile sits above price now after the fresh break. The lower band gate is 28700 today’s put floor stacked with 28697 prev day VAL.
CLN26 sits below 102.25 today’s put floor after the four-handle overnight reversal. Asymmetric downside risk into EIA at 9:30, the 100 line is the question one more time and the 99.45 1D Min sits as the band low.
GC sits 4500 below 4555 today’s pivot after Tuesday’s destruction tore through prev week structure. The 4470 today’s put floor and 4467 yest low stack right at the same line as the floor that needs to hold.
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