The Game Plan: Wednesday, May 27, 2026
"Has the situation officially been monitored into completion?"
One headline is running three markets this morning. The Iran framework and the odds the Strait reopens have crude getting sent to the shadow realm, and the risk-on tone that rides with it printed fresh records up top with tech dragging everyone higher by the tail. NQ tagged 30297 overnight, gold fell out of the bottom into 4421, crude is back under 90. Records and carnage on the same tape, and I’m not fading a fresh high without a reason to. See you on NT Live this morning for Trade The Open with the Boys.
The Tape
ES put in a quiet rotation Tuesday, 7517 to 7555 with the POC at 7536 and a close at 7539, value barely budging all session. Overnight ground up to 7566 and eased back onto 7544 the developing POC, where price sits now just under the 7570 week high. Holding 7544 keeps the grind pointed at 7556 the VAH and 7566 the overnight high, with 7600 the round in clean air above. Lose 7531 today VAL and 7517 the Tuesday low is the gate, and under that it is a long step down to 7448 prev week VAH and 7425 prev week POC.
NQ is the leader and it broke Tuesday’s high overnight. Tuesday was a trend-up close at 30079 on the 30000 POC, then Globex pushed a fresh high at 30297 and finally cleared the 30000 round that capped the whole prior week. Price sits 30261 holding the breakout, with 30100 the developing POC underneath. Above 30200 the upside is the 30297 overnight high and then air. Below 30000 fails and it is a different tape, 29826 the Tuesday low first then the gap down to 29377 prev week VAH and 29240 prev week POC.
CL held its ground Tuesday between 92.53 and 94.70 on a 93.90 POC and a 93.53 close, then got hit overnight. Globex opened 91.95 and dumped 89.64 fresh before bidding back to 90.62, parking just over the 90.32 developing POC. This is fresh range under everything from last week, with prev week VAL up at 95.79 now a memory. Holding 90.32 the reclaim runs 91.83 the VAH, back through 92.87 week VAL into 93.90 week POC. Losing 89.64 opens 87.13 the May low and 85 the April POC underneath.
GC fell out of the bottom overnight. Tuesday held 4480 to 4532 on a 4506 POC and a 4508 close, then Globex sold it from 4508 down to 4421 fresh, now 4431 sitting below Tuesday’s whole range and below the 4467 prev week low. Price is pinned under the 4440 developing POC at fresh monthly lows. Holding 4421 the reclaim works 4450 the VAH up to 4467 the prev week low into 4506 Tuesday POC. Losing 4421 opens 4400 the round with air underneath.
The Calendar
- 9:00 AM CT, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
- 9:30 AM CT, Dallas Fed Services Index (May)
- 2:55 PM CT, Fed’s Cook speaks
- 3:30 PM CT, API Crude Oil Stock Change (after the cash close)
The Plan
ES:
7544 is the coil, today’s POC where the overnight grind parked and the tape has been pinned. Above 7544 we work 7556 the VAH into 7566 the overnight high, and a push through 7570 the week high opens 7600 the round in clean air. Below 7544 fails and 7537 the overnight low goes first, then 7531 today VAL and 7517 the Tuesday low where the week bottomed. Lose 7517 and there is air down to 7448 prev week VAH and 7425 prev week POC, the real shelf, with 7338 the May VAL and 7160 the April POC the deeper destinations underneath. Quiet data day, so this is a structure tape until a Fed speaker says something.
NQ:
30000 is the line now, the round that capped the prior week and finally gave way overnight, with Tuesday’s POC stacked right on it. Above 30100 today POC holds and we target 30200 then 30297 the overnight high, and through there it is fresh air. Below 30000 fails and it turns into a different tape, 29826 the Tuesday low first, then the gap down to 29377 prev week VAH and 29240 prev week POC, with 27400 the April POC the deeper destination where the real volume sits. The 30000 hold-or-lose is the whole NQ read into the open. Don’t get cute fading a fresh high without a rejection first.
CL:
90.32 is the developing POC, where the overnight flush found a floor after price fell out of last week’s entire range. Above 90.32 the reclaim runs 91.83 the VAH, up through 92.87 week VAL into 93.90 week POC and Tuesday’s value up top. Below 89.64 the overnight low fails and it opens 87.13 the May low, then 85 the April POC where crude built its base. This is fresh range under everything, the 95 area is in the rearview now. Crude inventory after the close is the next catalyst.
GC:
4440 is the lid gold is pinned under after falling out of the bottom overnight, below the prev week low and below the whole month’s value. Above 4440 the reclaim works 4450 the VAH and 4467 the prev week low and month low together, with 4506 Tuesday POC the bigger line to win back. Below 4421 the overnight low fails and 4400 the round is next with air underneath, gold is at fresh monthly lows with nothing recent below it. The long crowd from up near the April highs is the supply on every bounce.
The White Van Stuff
Positioning up top stays call-heavy and net long into record highs, NQ punching clean through the 30000 line it could not clear all of last week. Crude vol is screaming with the whole expected band collapsing as price falls through the floor of it. Gold lost its floor and flipped negative overnight, which is exactly why the slide kept going once it started.
ES sits 7548 inside the band, well under the 7580 cap with the structural cap stacked at 7600 over it. Net positioning stays positive, nothing forcing a move either way.
NQ cleared the 30000 cap overnight and it flips to the floor underneath, the line that defines the breakout now. Everything above is thin into the expected hi at 30470.
CL sits right at the implied low after the flush, with vol bid hard and the whole cage stacked overhead. The 92 pivot is the first thing to reclaim, the 95.50 cap is well out of reach for now.
GC broke below its floor and the bottom of the expected range together, so the whole structure is overhead now and the downside is thin air. Negative positioning means bounces get sold and breaks get amplified.
Trust your prep. Trade your levels. Go get some vitamin D.
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