Last day of September. I can light the stupid pumpkin candles and pretend North Texas has seasons. PCE and GDP hit at 7:30, so the numbers get first crack and my job is the lines. ES is sitting on the 7732.50 Tuesday close with the 7731 POC right under it. Over 7741.25 I want 7745.25 and 7752.50, and if 7731 goes I’m looking at 7725.25 and then 7712.25, where Tuesday and this week both bottomed. NQ is the same trade at 30588.25: take 30600 back and it runs into 30615, give up 30588.25 and 30557.25 is next. Crude has to hold 90.34 to get at 90.64, and EIA at 9:30 gets a vote. Gold is the cleanest location on the board, over 4210 with 4227 overhead, and if it loses 4210, Tuesday’s 4207.20 high is the gate to 4197.60.
The Tape
ES is 7733.75, back on Tuesday’s 7732.50 close and 7731 POC after losing the entire overnight value, and 7731 is the line that decides it. Tuesday could not keep 7758.50, then closed 7732.50 on a 7731 POC. The overnight built above that close, but the trip from 7756.50 back to 7732.50 erased the whole audition. Reclaim 7741.25, the base of overnight value, and 7745.25 is the first proof before 7752.50. Lose 7731 and last week’s 7725.25 low catches before Tuesday’s 7722.50 value floor.
NQ is 30593.25, parked between 30586.75 overnight VAL and the 30600 overnight print, a shelf that has to pick a side at 30600. Tuesday could not keep 30725.50 and closed 30617 on a 30615 POC, so the day did its business well above current price. The night ran 30737, then dumped to 30539.75 and left price clinging to the bottom of the value it built. Take 30600 back and buyers run into Tuesday’s 30615 POC, with the 30617 close sitting on it. Give up 30588.25, the September VAH, and 30557.25 catches before the 30539.75 overnight low.
CL is 90.31, sitting on Tuesday’s 90.34 POC after the overnight bought back above its own 89.88 value ceiling, and that is a reclaim with exactly zero room for victory laps. Tuesday ran 91.76, then closed 89.35 near its 89.29 low. The night swept 88.58, and put value back above 89.05 before the rebound. Hold 90.34 and the 90.64 overnight high is the gate, then 90.76 Tuesday open. Lose 90.21, last week’s value floor, and 89.99 catches before the 89.58 September VAL.
GC is 4215.40, holding over 4210 overnight VAL after opening the night above Tuesday’s 4207.20 high, and that is the cleanest location of the four. Tuesday settled 4180.70 under its 4182.60 value floor after failing at 4207.20, then the overnight ignored all of it. Globex traded around 4216.13 VWAP, built its 4227 POC upstairs, and has kept the 4197.60 low away from current price. Hold 4210 and price works into 4227 before the 4234 overnight high. Lose 4210 and Tuesday’s 4207.20 high is the gate to the 4197.60 overnight low.
The Calendar
Wednesday, September 30 (all times CT):
- 7:15 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
- 7:30 PCE Price index (MoM) (Aug)
- 7:30 Core PCE - Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
- 7:30 GDP Price Index (Q2)
- 7:30 Goods Trade Balance - Prelim (Aug)
- 7:30 PCE Prices (Q2)
- 7:30 Real Personal Consumption (Aug)
- 7:30 Core PCE Prices (QoQ) (Q2)
- 7:30 Real Consumer Spending (Q2)
- 7:30 Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug)
- 7:30 GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
- 7:30 Core PCE - Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
- 7:30 PCE Price index (YoY) (Aug)
- 7:30 Personal Income (MoM) (Aug)
- 8:45 Chicago PMI (Sep)
- 9:00 Dallas Fed PCE (Aug)
- 9:30 EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (Sep 25)
- 9:30 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (Sep 25)
- 9:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Sep 25)
- 9:30 EIA Refinery Crude Runs (Sep 25)
- 9:30 Crude Oil Imports (Sep 25)
- 9:30 EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (Sep 25)
- 9:30 Crude Oil Inventories (Sep 25)
- 2:25 Fed’s Governor Cook Testifies
- 3:05 Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks
- 5:00 Fed’s Kashkari Speaks
The Plan
ES:
ES is 7733.75, sitting on the 7732.50 Tuesday close with the 7731 POC underneath, and the job is proving this shelf has buyers. Acceptance above 7741.25 overnight VAL puts 7743, the September POC, back in play before 7749.25 prev week VAL. Clear the 7756.50 overnight high and 7757.50 Tuesday open and August’s 7763.25 value floor is the first prior-month paper overhead. Break 7731 and last week’s 7725.25 low catches before 7712.25, where Tuesday and this week both bottomed. Under that shelf the 7691.75 September VAL opens August’s 7610.50 low, then 7575 where September bottomed.
NQ:
NQ is 30593.25, barely over 30586.75, where overnight VAL and the August high land on the same price, and that stack means something with September’s 30588.25 ceiling on top. Take 30600 and the first test is the 30615 Tuesday POC, then the 30625 week POC. Acceptance through 30650 opens last week’s 30658.25 value floor and the 30675.25 overnight VAH. Lose 30588.25 and the 30557.25 Tuesday VAL catches before the 30539.75 overnight low. Below 30504.50 the map thins to 30221.75 August VAH on the 30216.50 prev week low.
CL:
CL is 90.31, balanced between Tuesday’s 90.34 POC and last week’s 90.21 value floor, and the catch is how many ways this narrow spot can make somebody look smart after the fact. Hold 90.34 and the 90.64 overnight high is the gate before the 90.76 Tuesday open. Acceptance above 91.22 brings the 91.76 Tuesday high and 92, the prev week and September POC. Lose 90.21 and the 89.99 Tuesday VAL opens 89.58, September’s value floor. Under the 89.35 Tuesday close, this map has no prior-month paper before the 83.40 August high and 82.35 August VAH.
GC:
GC is 4215.40, holding 4210 overnight VAL over Tuesday’s 4207.20 high, and that is the cleanest shelf on the board even though buyers have not cleared the night’s volume. Hold 4210 and price works into the 4227 overnight POC before the 4234 high. Acceptance there opens 4279.60 prev week VAL, 4320 prev week POC, then 4324.70 September VAL. Above that, 4367.60 prev week VAH and 4380.70 August VAL are the upper paper. Lose 4210 and the overnight low opens the shared POC at 4187, then Tuesday’s close at 4180.70.
The White Van Stuff
The white van parked both index cages right on current price and left everyone arguing over a few ticks like adults. Crude has heavy paper stacked above it, while gold has a clean floor nearby and enough space overhead to make the duct tape nervous. Completely normal market behavior.
ES: ES is under 7750, where today’s pivot and put floor landed on the same number, with 7760 the lid buyers have to clear. The first marks below price are 7725 and 7720, while the band stretches to 7672.50. Price is 7733.75, caught between 7725 and 7750.
NQ: NQ has 30600 sitting just overhead and today’s 30540 pivot underneath, so current price is already inside the smallest useful cage. The floor for the day is 30300 with the 30285.25 band low on it, while 30750 is today’s cap. Price is 30593.25, under 30600 and over 30540.
CL: CL is back over 90, the floor for the day, but still under 90.50, the nearest mark above price. The upside stacks the 91.75 pivot under today’s 92 cap and the 92.06 band high. Price is 90.31, over 90 and under 90.50.
GC: GC is over 4200, where today’s pivot and put floor share one number, with 4220 the first mark overhead. Today’s cap is 4235 and the band high is 4272.90, while 4157.10 leaves real room underneath. Price is 4215.40, over 4200 and under 4220.
Tradingview Enjoyers, its time to grow up and realize your indicators suck, are not based on real volume and tick data, and can be reverse-engineered in an hour. It’s not that deep.
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