Iran talks going well? Vance sat in Pakistan for 21 hours, walked out with nothing, and Trump announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz before Vance’s plane landed. I’m honestly just waiting for the tweet renaming it the Strait of America at this point.
Last week the truce gave us the best equity week since November. This weekend it died. If you’re reading this Sunday night, you already know what Globex is about to do.
The Week That Was
Tuesday’s truce changed everything. Iran agreed to safe passage through the Strait. Crude went from $113 to $94 in a single session, the biggest drop since COVID. The equity market took one look at lower energy costs and bought everything. Airlines ripped 10-12%. Tech led because lower energy flows straight to margins. The S&P had its best week since November, up 3.6%. Nasdaq up 4.7%.
Then it all fell apart over the weekend.
ES gapped up Tuesday and never looked back. 167 handles in one session. Consolidated in the mid-6800s for the rest of the week. Three overlapping POCs at 6854-6863 by Friday. The market found value and sat on it. Weekly range 6567-6888. Closed at 6869. Still below March’s close of 6927 and March’s POC at 6967. The gap from March isn’t filled. And now with the blockade announcement, it might not fill for a while.
NQ led the move. 703 points on Tuesday. Closed the week at 25324, above March’s high of 25318. ES hasn’t done that yet. When the Nasdaq reclaims last month and the S&P doesn’t, tech is driving. That divergence mattered going into the weekend. It matters more now because NQ has the most to give back if the rally unwinds.
CL cratered from $113 to $91 at the week’s low. Weekly POC at 98, value area spanning $14 from 91 to 106. That’s not a market, that’s a hostage negotiation. CL closed Friday at 95.63, below the POC. Even after the crash there’s $23 of war premium relative to the pre-war $73. Brent spot cargos were already trading above $120 because it takes months to restart tanker traffic even with a truce. Now there’s no truce and there’s a blockade on top. Crude is gapping higher tonight.
GC caught the safety bid to 4888 then faded into Friday, closing at 4771. Below the weekly POC at 4848. That Friday fade was the market pricing in the deal holding. It’s not holding anymore. Gold catches a bid tonight.
Poor one out for the speculatooooors. Apparently, they were positioned for lower equities going into Tuesday, got their face ripped off on 280 handles of rally, and now the deal is dead. If you were short crude going into the weekend after last week’s 16% crash, you’re about to find out what a blockade does to oil prices. Gold specs are massively long and just watched their position fade all week. That fade is over.
Equity vol was compressing all week. Crude vol was already through the roof at the equivalent of $11 daily moves. The vol divergence between equities and crude was the truce in a single chart. That chart just broke.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday 4/14: NFIB. PPI at 7:30 AM CT. Goolsbee, Barr, Collins speak.
Wednesday 4/15: Empire State Manufacturing. Import Prices. EIA crude inventories at 9:30 AM CT. Beige Book at 1:00 PM CT. Bowman speaks.
Thursday 4/16: Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM CT. Philly Fed Manufacturing. Industrial Production.
Friday 4/17: Barkin and Waller speak. Baker Hughes rig count.
The blockade overrides all of it. Any headline from Tehran, Washington, or the Pentagon moves all four instruments simultaneously.
The Map and What I’m Watching
ES
Three sessions built volume at 6854-6863. Value migrated up 250 points from the prior week’s POC at 6610. The weekly profile is one-time-framing higher with the POC at 6815 and value area 6688-6887. April’s monthly POC is still down at 6620, monthly VAH at 6676. ES is extended above April’s value area by 180 points.
March traded 6894-6968 with POC at 6967. ES closed Friday at 6869, still 60 points below March’s close of 6927. We’re back in the range from hell. The March value area (6894-6968) is the next bracket above if ES can get through the week high.
March POC 6967.00 | Week POC 6815.00
March close 6927.00 | Week VAL 6688.00
March low 6894.00 | April POC 6620.00
Week high 6888.00 | Prev week POC 6610.00
Friday POC 6858.00 | April VAL 6503.75
Above 6888 (week high/VAH) ES enters March’s range. 6894 (March low) is the first test, then 6927 (March close), then 6967 (March POC) is the full fill. Below 6858 (Friday’s POC cluster) the first volume is at 6815 (week POC). Below 6815 there’s air to 6688 (week VAL). Below 6688, the next volume is at 6610 (prev week POC). Below 6610 the monthly profile takes over and 6504 (April VAL) is the floor.
NQ
Value migrated 880 points from prev week POC at 24150 to this week’s POC at 25030. Two sessions of POCs at 25300-25301 established value at the top of the range. NQ closed at 25324, above March’s high of 25318. ES hasn’t done that yet. NQ is already back inside March’s range (25010-25318). That’s the bracket.
The week of March 30 value area (23659-24348, POC 24150) is the pullback zone if this unwinds. Three timeframes built volume at 24150. That level matters.
Week high 25386.00 | Week POC 25030.00
March high 25318.00 | Week VAL 24909.00
Friday POC 25300.00 | Mar 30 wk VAH 24348.25
March POC 25164.00 | Mar 30 wk POC 24150.00
March low 25010.00 | April POC 24200.00
Above 25386 (week high) and accepting, 25500 is the next area. NQ is already inside March’s range, so the March POC at 25164 and March low at 25010 are the levels to watch on a pullback. Below 25300 (Friday POC), the first real volume is at 25030 (week POC). That 25000-25030 cluster is the dip. Below 24909 (week VAL), air to 24740. Below that the staircase is 24348 (week of March 30 VAH), 24150 (triple-timeframe POC), 23941 (week low).
CL
The weekly profile has a $26 range (91-117) and a POC at 98. Value area 91-106. CL closed Friday at 95.63, below the POC. The prior week’s POC was 102. Value migrated down $4 on the week, but the range expanded massively.
Prev week POC 102.00 | Friday POC 98.50
Month POC 99.00 | Week POC 98.00
Friday close 95.63 | Week VAL 91.17
Thursday low 95.51 | Week low 91.05
98 is the line. It’s the week POC. Above 98 and accepting, 99 (month POC) then 102 (prev week POC) are the targets. Above 106 (week VAH) we’re back in the pre-crash range. Below 95, the 91 area is the week low and week VAL. Below 91, no volume until the mid-80s.
GC
Gold rallied $262 on the week to 4888 then faded into Friday, closing at 4771, well below the weekly POC at 4848. The monthly profile has POC at 4735 and VAH at 4826. GC is inside the monthly value area.
Week high 4888.00 | Month POC 4735.00
Week POC 4848.00 | Prev week VAH 4720.20
Week VAH 4855.30 | Month VAL 4685.50
Monthly VWAP 4743.97 | Prev week POC 4620.00
Week VAL 4704.60 | Week low 4626.20
Above 4848 (week POC) and accepting, 4888 (week high) then 4900 are the targets. Above 4900, the 5000 area is the next volume. Below 4735 (monthly POC), support at 4705 (week VAL) then 4685 (monthly VAL). Below 4685, the prior week POC at 4620 is the floor.
The White Van Stuff
The options stuff is in the room with us. And right now, it’s all about to get repriced.
ES: The ceiling where call sellers were stacked at 6900 doesn’t matter if we’re gapping below it. The put floor where buyers piled in is way down at 6500. Same-day interest was concentrated at 6850 and 6875 on Friday. Those levels become the battle zone if ES gaps down to the low 6800s. The vol environment was calm going into the weekend. It won’t be Monday morning.
NQ: Call ceiling at 25500, put floor at 24000. The options market was pricing daily moves of about 25000-25570. Heavy same-day interest at 25300 and 25400. If NQ gaps below 25300, those same-day levels become resistance instead of support.
CL: Ceiling at 100, floor at 90. The options market was pricing $11 daily windows. If crude gets above 100, the call sellers at 100 start covering and it accelerates. Below 90, same thing in the other direction with put covering.
GC: Ceiling at 5000, floor at 4400. Heavy interest around 4750-4810. Above 4848, the 4900-5000 zone is where the next concentration of interest sits. Below 4735, less resistance to the downside until 4400.
The whole positioning picture from Friday is stale. Everything gets repriced at the open.
The Week’s Plan
ES: 6858 is the near-term anchor. Three sessions built volume there. If ES holds above it and buyers build above 6888 (week high/VAH), we enter March’s range. 6894 (March low) is the first test, 6927 (March close), 6967 (March POC) is the full fill. If 6858 breaks, 6815 (week POC) is the first volume. Below 6815 there’s air to 6688 (week VAL). Below 6688, the next real volume is 6610 (prev week POC). Below 6610, the April monthly profile takes over: 6620 (April POC), 6504 (April VAL). That’s the full staircase down.
NQ: 25300 is value. Two sessions voted on it. NQ is already inside March’s range (25010-25318). If it holds and builds above 25386 (week high), 25500 is the target. If 25300 breaks, March POC at 25164 is the first reference inside the range. Below that, 25030 (week POC) and the 25000 cluster is the dip. Below 24909 (week VAL), air to 24740. Below that the staircase is 24348 (week of March 30 VAH), 24150 (triple-timeframe POC), 23941 (week low), 23667 (April VAL). NQ migrated 880 points in a week. If it gives any of that back, the moves will be fast.
CL: 98 is the week POC. Above 98 and accepting, 99 (month POC) then 102 (prev week POC). Above 106 (week VAH) we’re back in the pre-crash range. Below 95, the 91 area is the week low and week VAL. Below 91, no volume until the mid-80s. The options market was pricing $11 daily swings before the weekend. Quarter size.
GC: 4848 (week POC) is the line. Above it, 4888 (week high), 4900, then 5000 (call ceiling). Below 4735 (monthly POC), 4705 (week VAL), 4685 (monthly VAL), 4620 (prev week POC). GC is inside the monthly value area right now. Watch which direction it breaks out of that range for the signal on everything else.
*Given the weekend headlines, some of these levels may get invalidated quickly during tonight’s Globex session. If the map changes significantly I’ll post an update.*
Protect yourself at all times. Survive and advance.
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