Well, that was a boring week that required a pulse check. The consumer number landed Friday as the worst one in more than a year and the S&P sat there and did nothing about it, which is either confidence or nobody reading past the headline. This week the actual stores get to answer it, Home Depot Tuesday, Target and Lowe’s Wednesday, Walmart Thursday. My lean is still long the indexes while they hold the two weeks of volume stacked at 7765 to 7774, and the crowd finally agreeing with me is the part that makes me nervous. Its quiet. Too Quiet. Summer trade winding down as kids head back to school. Just a few more Friday sleeps until the tailgates, bands, and football are back 5 days a week.
The Week That Was
Two inflation prints landed Tuesday and Wednesday and neither one was hot, which took a September hike from a coin flip down to about one in three, and the S&P used it to clear 7,800 for the first time. Then Friday the retail number came in at down six tenths against a forecast for a small gain, and the rally stopped right there. Crude ran about five percent on renewed pressure over the Strait of Hormuz, so the one chart nobody wanted to own two weeks ago turned into the best trade on the board. Gold went to 4502.40 Wednesday, found out what air smells like, and gave most of it back. The Russell printed a fresh record Friday while the Nasdaq spent the day going nowhere.
ES opened the week at 7773 and closed Friday at 7805.50, and in between it printed 7838.50, the highest price the contract has traded. Value settled at 7773.75, sitting almost exactly on last week’s 7765.75, so two weeks running the market did its business in the same handle. Friday closed dead on 7805.25, the ceiling the week built.
NQ opened at 29805.50 and closed Friday at 30144.25, and it spent the week doing the one thing last week’s plan asked for: it went back and cleaned up the 30074 print nobody had touched. The high is 30280.50 and it went in Friday, which leaves July’s 30311 ceiling and 30356.50 high as the only two things overhead. Value built at 29760, right on top of last week’s 29750, and price closed nowhere near it.
CL opened at 79.73 and closed at 82.40 after tagging 83.62, the best week crude has had since the spring. The odd part is where the volume went. The week POC printed 83.19, above where price finished, and August’s POC printed there too, so the market built its value at the top of the range and then closed under it.
GC opened at 4387.70, ran to 4502.40 midweek, and closed at 4431.30, which is a gain on the week and does not feel like one. Value came in at 4450, above the close, the same shape crude drew. Friday held a tight range from 4427.20 to 4454.80 and finished at 4431.30, right underneath its own value floor at 4432.30.
Positioning (August 11 data): The trader crowd on the S&P finally quit, adding almost 17,000 longs and covering better than 12,000 shorts to go net long after weeks of leaning against the rally. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite and put on another 9,200 shorts. Gold’s long crowd added 26,000 contracts at the highs while the crude crowd was cutting longs into the best week it has had all summer.
Vol: VIX closed at 14.25, lower again. Protection is the cheapest it has been all month going into a week whose only scheduled event is a set of minutes.
The Calendar
What I’m Watching This Week
1. Wednesday at 1:00. Two cool prints already knocked September down to about one in three. The minutes tell you how close the argument actually got, and that is the whole week in one release.
2. NQ 30311 and 30356.50. July’s value ceiling with July’s high stacked right behind it. NQ cleaned up the 30074 poor high last week, and this pair is the only structure left between price and open air.
3. ES 7773.75 on 7765.75. Two weeks of volume in one handle. Holds and the record is a base. Loses and the whole thing was a blowoff that took two weeks to admit it.
4. Crude’s own 83.19. The week put its volume above where it closed. Reclaim it and the move is accepted. Fail that number and the whole rally reads as a retrace inside a broken market.
5. The retail slate. Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s and Walmart all report onto a consumer number that just fell the most in over a year. Four chances for somebody to say out loud what Friday’s data already said.
The Week’s Plan
ES:
ES has built two straight weeks of volume on the same handle, 7773.75 this week sitting right on top of 7765.75 last week, and that stack is the whole plan. Over that stack the map runs 7797 Friday’s value floor, 7805.25 where the week topped its value, with Friday’s 7805.50 close right on it, then 7813 where last week capped its value and 7820.25 last week’s high. Take out 7830.75 Friday’s high and 7838.50 is the record, with nothing overhead but whatever gets built up there. Below 7773.75 the first catch is 7743.50, the floor of the week’s build. Lose 7724.25, where last week’s value bottomed, with August’s 7724.75 sitting right on it, and the two-week shelf is gone. Under that there is a real gap before 7627.25 July’s high and 7615 July’s value ceiling, with 7546 July POC where the month put its actual volume.
NQ:
NQ did what last week’s plan asked and went back for the 30074 print it left hanging, then kept going to 30280.50 Friday. The line now is 30105.25, where the week topped its value, and Friday closed above it. Hold there and the only structure left is 30311 July’s value ceiling with 30356.50 July’s high behind it, and above that pair there is nothing on the chart at all. Below 30105.25 the first catch is 30067.25, where August tops its value. Lose that and the drop runs to 29760 week POC and 29750 last week’s POC, the same handle two weeks running and the gate for this entire read. Under 29750 it steps 29534.25, the week’s own floor, then 29467 where last week’s value bottomed, with August’s 29471.75 stacked on it, then air down to 29300 July POC and 28457.75 July’s value floor.
CL:
Crude had its best week of the summer and still closed under its own volume. 83.19 is the week POC and August’s POC on the same price, and Friday finished at 82.40, underneath it. Reclaim 83.19 and the move gets accepted, with 83.34 the week’s ceiling, 83.45 August’s, and 83.62 the week high right above it. Clear that shelf and 84.50 July’s POC is the real target, then 88.48 July’s value ceiling and 93.51 the July high a long way behind it. Fail at 83.19 and the first catch is 81.33, the floor the week drew, then 79.17 the week low and 78.12 where last week capped out. Lose 77.04, where August’s value bottoms on top of July’s 77.03, and the whole rally was a retrace, with 75.75 last week’s POC and 74.44 last week’s low underneath.
GC:
Gold made the high of the run at 4502.40 and spent the back half of the week handing it back, and it closed under its own volume too. 4450 is the week POC and the line that decides whether the run is still a run. Over 4450, the number 4460.80 caps what the week built, then 4502.40 where the week topped, with August’s 4502.70 ceiling right there with it, and past it there is no structure at all. Below 4450 the first step is 4435, Friday’s volume, then 4432.30 its value floor, which price closed just underneath. Lose 4403.70, the floor the week set, and 4375 the week low is the gate. Under 4375 it runs 4363.60, last week’s ceiling, then air down to 4304.70 where August bottoms its value and 4301 where last week put its POC, with 4253.20 July’s high the last thing on the board.
The White Van Stuff
The equity books are back at the top of their one-year range, the S&P near the ninetieth percentile and the tracking book on tech at ninety-seven, which is the setup that pins price until something big enough shows up to unpin it. The long end carries the opposite, sitting at the very bottom of its own year. Energy is stacked as heavy as equities while the metals books are dead center, so gold is still running on buying rather than positioning.
ES: The structural cap on ES is 7800 and price closed above it Friday, so the book got run over on the way to the record. Overhead the interest stacks 7825, 7850 and 7875 into the 7900 line. Underneath, the magnet at 7745 sits right on the bottom of the expected band.
NQ: The whole tech book is stacked overhead. Every heavy line but two sits above Friday’s close, running 30250, 30400 and 30500 into a shelf from 30600 up to 30800, with the cap parked at 31000. Below price there is 30100, 30000, the magnet at 29890, and then nothing until 28000.
CL: Crude closed inside the densest part of its own book, with 82, 82.50 and 83 all sitting within reach of the settle. The ladder above runs 83.50, 84, 85 and 86 with no gap anywhere in the stack, and the cap is still 90. The magnet is 80.50.
GC: Gold’s cap is 4510 and the week high stopped underneath it, and the book has not moved the number since. Overhead the lines run 4450, 4480, 4525 and 4550. The magnet is way down at 4340, below everything the week traded, and the 3900 floor is a leftover from a different price.
If you use 45-minute candles, feel free to yell at me in the chat this week. I am man; I’m 40.
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