First full week of August, which means everybody is at the lake. It’s still unbelievably hot here. This week could be a fun one if last week was any indication. We’re still trying to decide which way we want to break this balance. NQ seemed like it was about to drag everything down into the pits. Yet here we are back above 28k. I lean higher through the front half of the week. We’ll see what the first day of a new month brings us!
The Week That Was
Two halves that never met each other. Monday and Tuesday crude handed back everything the Strait of Hormuz scare had put into it, printing 77.78 by Tuesday afternoon, and equities got no credit for it because the long end would not stop selling. Wednesday the rate decision came in as a hold at 3.50 to 3.75 with three people dissenting in favor of raising, the thirty-year printed its highest yield since 2007, and both indexes came apart, NQ down to 27201.50 and ES to 7324. Then Microsoft cleared a hundred billion on the cloud business and put in the biggest single day in company history, Amazon backed it up Thursday night, and by Friday the entire drawdown was gone. Apple was the one exception, warning on supply and falling out of the five trillion club on the same tape that was celebrating everybody else.
ES opened the week at 7507.75 and closed Friday at 7520.25, which after a round trip down to 7324 and back is a whole lot of nothing. The week built its volume at 7469.50, July’s value bottomed at 7469.25, and Friday’s own VAL landed at 7469.75. Three timeframes agreeing on the same price is not a coincidence, that is the line.
NQ opened at 28590.50 and closed Friday at 28402.75, down about two thirds of a percent and still the worst chart of the four. It printed 27201.50 Wednesday, the lowest number on the board since June, took the whole week’s damage back in two sessions, then stalled and closed under 28446.50, the value floor built one week earlier. The week POC sits way down at 28050, so price and volume are not in the same neighborhood yet.
CL opened the week already gapped under the prior Friday’s 89.76 settle, bled to 77.78 by Tuesday, and closed at 84.77. The week POC printed 84.50, July’s POC printed 84.50, and the week before that stacked at 84.38. Crude spent a month running to 93.50 and falling to 67 and the volume never once left the mid 84s.
GC opened at 4145.30 and closed Friday at 4107.70, down about a percent, and it did it while gold rolled into the December contract, so every number on the chart reset higher. Last week’s levels are dead, use these. On the new contract Friday, the week, and July all put their POC at 4102, and price closed sitting on it.
Cross-asset read: The trade that ran all of July finally broke. Crude fell every day of the front half and equities did not care, which means the tape has quit pricing oil as the inflation input and gone back to trading company results. What is underneath both indexes now is the long end of the bond market, and that is what took them apart Wednesday.
Positioning (July 28 data): The trader crowd on the S&P covered a chunk of what it had on and went into the drop leaning short by only about 3,900. The Nasdaq crowd did the opposite and pushed its short lean past 11,000, so whoever added there got run over Thursday and Friday. Crude’s long crowd came down to roughly 32,200 from north of 42,000, and gold’s long crowd is still sitting on 174,000 net long with nothing at all to show for it.
Vol: VIX closed Friday at 15.99 after closing the week prior at 18.58. Everything bought for protection into Wednesday got dumped back out on the way to the weekend.
The Calendar
All times CT.
Monday, August 3
- 8:45 S&P Global manufacturing, final for July
- 9:00 ISM manufacturing for July, construction spending
- Palantir reports after the close
Tuesday, August 4
- AMD and Eli Lilly report after the close, and SpaceX files its first quarter as a public company
Thursday, August 6
- 7:30 Jobless claims, second quarter productivity and unit labor costs
Friday, August 7
- 7:30 Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for July
What I’m Watching This Week
1. Friday at 7:30. The number penciled in is 83,000 with unemployment at 4.3%. For three years a big print was the good news and it is not anymore, because the case being argued is a hike and futures have September at better than a coin flip.
2. 7469 on ES. Week POC, July’s VAL, and Friday’s VAL all landed on the same price. Above it the repair keeps working. Below it and Thursday and Friday were a bounce inside a broken week.
3. Crude at 84.50. Three weekly profiles in a row have stacked their volume in the same handle. The output answer comes out over the weekend and crude opens tonight on it, and whichever side of 84.50 it settles on is where it spends the week.
4. NQ 28446. The prior week’s floor of value. NQ traded above it Friday and closed back under, so it has one failure on the board already. It needs a close over it before the 28810 magnet means anything.
5. The long end. The thirty-year printed its highest yield since 2007 on Wednesday and the tape spent the next two sessions buying long-duration tech anyway. One of those two is wrong and they do not usually stay wrong together for long.
The Week’s Plan
ES:
ES closed the week on the cleanest confluence on any of my four charts. 7469.50 is the week POC, July’s value bottomed at 7469.25, and Friday’s VAL came in at 7469.75. Above that shelf the repair keeps going and the first real work is 7486 week VAH, then 7541 where the week topped out, then 7546, where the prior week and July both stacked their POC. Clear 7546 and it opens 7563.50 prior week high, 7608 July’s value ceiling, and 7632 July’s high, with 7693.75 June’s high the last one on the board. Lose 7469 and 7455.25, prior week VAL, is the first catch, then 7440 June’s POC, which is the gate. Under 7440 the steps are 7427.50 Friday’s low, 7411.75 prior week low, and 7403.50 the week’s VAL, and below that the record thins out to 7364.75 June’s value floor and 7324, the low July and the week share.
NQ:
NQ is the one that still has to prove it. 28446.50, the value floor the prior week built, is the line, and Friday traded above it and closed back under at 28402.75. Reclaim it and hold and the work overhead reads 28726 Friday’s high, then 28763.20 the week’s high, then 28810, where the prior week stacked its POC and where the volume actually sits. Over that it is 29203 prior week VAH, 29247.80 June’s VAL, and 29364.80 prior week high, with 29600 July’s POC the number nobody is talking about yet. Lose 28376.20 July’s VAL and price falls back under 28299.50 week VAH, then 28212.50 prior week low, which is the gate. Under 28212.50 the steps are 28079.25 Friday’s low and 28050 the week POC, and there is nothing built beneath that until 27579.80 week VAL and 27201.50, the July low.
CL:
Crude has now built three straight weekly profiles on top of the same price. 84.50 is the week POC and July’s POC, the week before that stacked at 84.38, and Friday closed at 84.77 sitting right on the pile. Above 84.50 the push reads 85.38 week VAH, then Friday’s 85.55 value top and 86.01 high, then 88.07 July’s value ceiling with 89.66 prior week VAH and 89.90 June’s high over that. 93.50, the high July and the prior week share, is the extension and it needs a supply headline to get there. Below 84.50 it drops to 84.44 Friday’s VAL and 83.04 June’s value ceiling, then 81.83 the week’s value floor, which is the gate. Under 81.83 the ladder is 80.95 prior week VAL, 79.58 prior week low, and 77.78 the week’s low, and there is nothing structural beneath that until 69.50 June’s POC.
GC:
Gold rolled into December, so read this card fresh and throw the old numbers away. 4102 is where Friday, the week, and July all put their POC, and price closed on it at 4107.70. Above 4102 the first work is 4109 Friday’s value ceiling, 4110.40 prior week VAL, and 4115 Friday’s high, then 4143 where the week topped its value with 4151.30 July’s ceiling stacked right over it. Clear that pair and what is left is 4180.20 the week’s high, 4230 prior week high, and 4276.20 July’s high. Below 4102 it steps 4093.60 Friday’s VAL, 4085.10 June’s POC, and 4076.70 July’s value floor sitting right on Friday’s 4076.50 low, then 4068.70 the week’s VAL, which is the gate. Under 4068.70 it is 4053.90 the week’s low and 4044 prior week low, then air down to 4019, July’s low.
The White Van Stuff
ES: ES finished at 7520.25 with interest at 7525 and 7535 stacked immediately overhead and the heaviest line of the whole book at 7550. The 7450 magnet and the 7439 implied low are the only things underneath before it falls away to the 7200 put floor.
NQ: The tech book has price at 28402.75 with 28550 the first thing over it and then almost nothing until the 29000 cap. Underneath it is stacked tight, 28300 and 28200 and then the 28040 magnet sitting on top of the 28000 put floor.
CL: Crude’s single heaviest line is 85, sitting right on top of where price settled. The whole call structure that got dragged up into 100 during the run has come back down to a 95 cap, and the 80.50 magnet and 77.50 put floor are what hold the bottom.
GC: Gold’s book did not roll with the contract. The 4510 cap and the 4340 magnet both sit above July’s high, which is a book built for a price gold has not been near in a month, while the real weight underneath is 4050 and the put floor is parked at 3900.
Be safe. Plenty of points to steal this week. Be Patient.
If this brief is making you money, the best way to back me is to trade with Lucid Trading. Use my link or code VIBE.
I am not a financial advisor, CTA, or portfolio manager. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything. Futures trading is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than your initial investment. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Free orderflow course: course.nick4atick.com | X: @Nick4ATick