Shorter Huddle this week, written from the road. Last week my lean was bottom of the balance into bounce fuel. The number came in soft Thursday and the shorts paid for it all week. Gold printed a fresh low Tuesday and never looked back. The calendar is nearly empty, one real event Wednesday. Now into Q3 please take it slow.
The Week That Was
The whole week turned on one number. Payrolls landed at 57k, soft enough to put the tightening talk on ice, and the indexes that got sold all last week ripped right back while the Dow closed the half at a record. The money leaving the chips kept landing on gold, and crude spent the week scraping its lowest prices since winter as barrels keep coming back.
ES opened the week at 7398 and closed 7557, with Thursday’s 7593.75 high sitting right under last week’s 7599 print. Two weekly highs on top of each other is the wall the new quarter opens against.
NQ opened 29282, ran to 30600 by Tuesday, and the chip selling dragged it to 29328 Thursday before the half-day bought it back to 29901. Higher on the week, ugliest chart of the four getting there.
CL bled to 67.04 Thursday, its lowest trade since February, and finished 68.78. Fourth week lower in a row, and every bounce died at the same line just over 69.
GC flushed to 3962 on Tuesday, a fresh 2026 low by less than a point, then went one direction into a 4187 close. Two weekly lows at the same price in two weeks, both bought.
Cross-asset read: Indexes took the soft print as relief, gold took it as fuel, and crude ignored it completely because its problem is supply, not the rate path. Rotation, not distribution, until the floors start breaking.
Positioning (June 23 data): The holiday pushed the updated report, so this is the same picture as last week, and it played out exactly like bounce fuel does. The short crowd got squeezed out, not converted.
Vol: The VIX closed at 16 and change, books everywhere are priced for a quiet summer, and thin tapes cut both ways.
The Calendar
The minutes are the only thing on here that can really move it, the first look inside the new chair’s first meeting. No Mag7 this week, the banks kick off earnings season the week after.
What I’m Watching This Week
1. FOMC minutes Wednesday 1:00 PM CT. The tape spent four sessions deciding the hawkish turn was overdone. If the minutes read like the committee meant it, the whole rip is offside.
2. ES 7594 and 7599. Two weekly highs stacked overhead. Acceptance above opens 7632, the June high, with nothing traded higher this year.
3. NQ 30000. Holding above it points the bounce back at 30600 where Tuesday died. Losing 29328, Thursday’s flush low, says the chip selling is not done.
4. Gold through 4216. The double floor at 3962 is in and the week closed at the highs. Through 4216, last week’s high, the air gets thin for a long way up.
5. Crude at 67.04. Lowest trade since February with no recent volume underneath. Either the low keeps holding, or it breaks and price discovery does the rest.
The Week’s Plan
ES:
The new quarter opens at 7557 staring at the paired highs at 7594 and 7599, and that is the whole decision. Through 7599 it’s 7632, the June high, and past that nothing on the chart from this year. Hold 7524, Friday’s low, and dips stay entries; lose it and 7480 then 7398 decide whether the rip was real, with 7357 and 7232 waiting below.
NQ:
NQ closed 29901, right in the middle of the week’s fight at 30000. Above it, 30320 then 30600 where Tuesday’s run died, and through there 30968 is the top of the entire structure. Lose 29522 then 29328, the gate, and under that it’s 29160 with air to 28228, the June low.
CL:
Crude closed 68.78 under the 69.25 line it failed at all week. Reclaim it and 70.19, 70.75 and 71.60 are the bounce steps, with nothing above until the stranded structure at 78.96. Lose 68.08 and 67.04 is the gate, the lowest trade since February; below 67 it’s discovery toward the 65 round.
GC:
Gold closed 4187 with only 4208 and 4216, last week’s high, between it and a new recovery leg. Through 4216 the trade is thin all the way toward 4541, the June high. Hold 4134, Friday’s floor, and the V keeps its shape; lose it and 4062 then 4022 come first, with 3962, the double floor, underneath.
The White Van Stuff
The books came out of the holiday pinned: ES inside its densest interest shelf under the cap, NQ sitting on its magnet, crude’s flush caught by its floor, gold pressing its upper band. Nobody is paying up for protection anywhere, which is exactly how quiet weeks stop being quiet.
ES sits at 7557 inside the heavy interest from 7530 to 7580, the 7600 cap directly overhead, the 7510 magnet the landing spot below, and the put floor a long way down at 7400.
NQ closed parked on its 29810 magnet with the put side crowded, interest packed from 29300 down to the 29000 floor. First wall overhead is 30000, the cap a long climb away at 31000.
CL owns the loudest book on the board, compressed into the 66 to 72 window. Thursday’s flush ran straight into the 67 put floor and held, with the magnet at 70 and the cap at 76 on top of everything.
GC ran its reversal straight into the upper interest band, 4192 and 4212 pressing with the 4286 cap on top of them. The floor at 3987 is where the book drew its line, and the 3962 flush poked under it and snapped right back.
Still on vacay so will ease back in this week. The screen will be there tomorrow. Cheers.
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