Happy Father’s Day to all the Dads and Daddys out there. New fed Daddy came in last week, did nothing, and then the projections did the talking. We’re going to just lame duck this fed, aren’t we? Warsh’s first meeting flipped the dot grid to where a hike is the next move and a cut is a 2027 problem; the indexes sold the whole afternoon, and for a few hours the crowd that shorted this thing for two months finally got paid. Then Apple and Intel decided to build chips together, the semis went vertical overnight, and equities clawed every inch of that drop right back before the holiday shut the door. Gold never got the second memo and kept bleeding, crude kept handing back the premium it borrowed in the spring, and all of it walks into a PCE Thursday. Should be an interesting one before going into another holiday week, the 4th of July.
The Week That Was
ES spent the front half clawing back toward the highs and tagged 7649 Tuesday, a hair under the 7693 June high, before the projections knocked it back into value. It closed 7564 sitting on the 7558 floor of the week’s value with the 7613 POC built right overhead. First close back under that POC since the recovery started.
NQ took the rate hit hardest and recovered it fastest. It slid to 29923 on the projections, then the semi headline carried it back through the whole drop to close 30693, leaning on the upper third of the week’s value above the 30450 POC. Strongest of the four and the only one that closed within striking distance of its 31100 record.
CL kept doing what it has done for a month. It opened the week near 80, lost the 73.58 low by Thursday, and closed 76.91 with the entire pre-crash shelf stranded up at 84 and 91. The supply-is-coming-back trade has pulled price clean out of three months of value.
GC was the wreck of the group. It ranged 4220 to 4403 and closed 4236 near the low, then the thin holiday tape leaked it under the 4220 week low toward 4180. Every bit of structure now sits overhead, and the metal is trading straight inverse to the ten-year with nothing under it to lean on.
Cross-asset read: One central bank and one corporate headline split the board clean in two. The projections should have sunk everything, and for an afternoon they did, but the tie-up handed equities a reason to climb back while the metal had no such lifeline and ate the rate move whole. Crude is off in its own world, answering to supply and the talks, not to the rate path. The indexes are a chip story, gold is a rates story, and oil is a peace story, all printing on the same tape.
Vol: The fear gauge slid back under 18 as the protection bought for the meeting got dumped into the semi rally, so equity vol is cheap again right into a PCE Thursday. Gold and crude vol never came in, and the metal’s book is built to push the next leg down, not catch it.
The Calendar
Micron after the bell Wednesday is the lone single-stock print with real macro in it, a direct read on whether the bid that saved the week has earnings to back it up. Everything else bends to Thursday morning.
What I’m Watching This Week
1. PCE Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The override on every chart. The first inflation read since the projections flipped to a hike, stacked with GDP and durable goods the same morning. Hot confirms the dots, soft fights them.
2. NQ holds the chip bid. It closed 30693 back above the 30450 week POC on the strength of the semi headline and never looked back. While it holds that line the path points at the 31100 record. Micron after Wednesday’s close is the test of whether the bid has earnings under it.
3. ES at the floor of value. The recovery ran into the 7613 week POC and stalled, closing 7564 on the 7558 value floor. Above 7613 the highs come back into view, under 7558 the week turns heavy toward the 7472 low.
4. Crude in a vacuum. It fell clean out of three months of value and there is no recent volume under the 73.58 low. The whole pre-crash shelf is stranded at 84 and 91, so bounces are headline trades and the breakdown is the structure.
5. Gold has nothing overhead but supply. Every level above price is a seller now. It is pressing the 4220 week low with the 4072 flush low the last real shelf underneath, and it answers to the ten-year harder than anything else on the board.
The Week’s Plan
ES:
ES closed the week on the 7558 floor of its value with the 7613 POC sitting right on top, so the first job is reclaiming 7613 to get back in control. Above 7613 the 7636 week and month ceiling is next, then 7649 the week high and 7693 the June high where the whole run topped out. Hold 7558 and the dip stays a bounce. Lose 7558 and 7546 the June value floor goes, then 7499 last week’s POC and 7472 where the week put in its low. Below 7472 there is air down to 7420 last week’s value floor, and under that the slide runs to 7307 where June built its volume on the jobs flush, the line the whole month is stacked on.
NQ:
NQ closed 30693 in the upper third of its value, holding above the 30450 POC the semis reclaimed, the strongest chart of the four. Above 30766 the week ceiling and 30834 June’s, the 30915 week high is the gate, and taking it opens clean air to the 31100 record. Hold 30450 and dips stay buyable. Lose 30450 and 30353 the week value floor goes, then 30139 last week’s high and 29923 the week low catch the first legs down. Below 29923 the vacuum opens to 29524 last week’s volume shelf, then 28506 where last week and June share their low, the deep base the whole rally is built over.
CL:
Crude closed 76.91 having fallen clean out of its own value, the 76 week POC the only nearby line and the whole pre-crash shelf stranded overhead. A bounce has to first reclaim 80.16 the week ceiling, and from there it is a long climb to the stranded volume at 84 last week’s low, 86.66, June’s value floor, and 91.30 where the month and last week both built their base. Those are headline-only targets now. Lose 73.58 the shared week and June low and there is no recent profile underneath, just price discovery into the low 70s and the 70 round where the next real volume sits.
GC:
Gold closed 4236 near its low and the holiday tape leaked it under the 4220 week low toward 4180, so it walks in below everything. The first job is reclaiming 4231 the week value floor and the 4250 POC just to get back inside the range. Above that 4284 last week’s value high and 4364 the week ceiling are the next steps, with 4403 the week high and 4532 the May POC the wall where the long crowd keeps selling. Lose 4180 and 4112 June’s value floor is the catch, then 4072 where last week and June share the flush low. Below 4072 it is fresh discovery with no volume to lean on.
The White Van Stuff
The reset to the hike side cut two ways across the books. The index surfaces stayed calm and balanced through the whole round trip, the protection cheap again and the pin back on stocks, while the metal’s book is loaded for downside and built to push the next leg, not catch it. Crude still owns the loudest, widest book on the board, its magnet stranded in a different era of the contract from where price actually trades.
ES has the calmest book of the four, the option crowd leaning slightly long again with cheap protection and price parked right on the 7545 magnet. The cap is a long way up at 7700 and the floor sits down at 7400, so the whole fight is in the dense interest shelf between the magnet and the cap.
NQ carries the heaviest call-side book of the four and it still ran to the top of its expected week, which is its own kind of risk if Thursday surprises hawkish. The magnet sits at 30490 just under price and the real cap is a different planet up at 32000.
CL owns the loudest, widest book on the screen and the vol on it never came down. The magnet is stranded way up at 83.60 in a different era of the contract, the cap a relic at 101, and down at price the only thing that matters is the heavy interest stacked from 73 up to 81 and the real floor a long way under at 70.72.
GC spent the holiday session falling out the bottom of its own book, price now under the expected low with every option line of consequence sitting overhead. The magnet at 4340 caps every bounce, the heavy interest stacks 4250 to 4400, and the put crowd is leaning hard with the only real floor a long way down at 4000.
Never think you’re smarter than a dumb market. It will get dumber for sure. Cheers Friends.
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