Happy almost birthday, America. Fireworks Friday, hot dogs all weekend, the World Cup knockout round running on our own soil, and a peace talk tape doing its best to ruin it. If there was one single week to maybe not care to trade, this might be one of them. I am traveling. World Cup knockout round matches every day. Holiday trading Friday? Anyway, if you’re going to be trading, you still should be prepped. So lets fucking go.
Inflation ran hot, the new Fed guy’s own dot plot pencils in a hike instead of a cut, and the AI trade that could do no wrong got walked behind the woodshed. The fun one is gold. The chart everybody buried in the spring printed a fresh low, turned on a dime, and started catching every dollar that ran out of the chips, rallying while yields go the wrong way for it, which is not supposed to happen. Now the job number gets yanked up to Thursday onto a half day, a thin tape, and a long weekend. Take the W if they give it to you, then go watch some soccer (or fútbol - but no I don’t speak Kilometers this week).
The Week That Was
Tech bleeding and gold bidding on the same tape is the tell of the week. Crude was off in its own funeral, third week lower with the war premium fully gone, answering to supply instead of the rate path. Four sessions of selling in the indexes, one violent reversal in gold, and all of it walks into a jobs report that got pulled forward into a holiday-shortened week.
ES opened the week at 7573 and closed Friday at 7380, lower on the week and out the bottom of its own value. The week POC built up at 7444 with the 7408 value floor sitting above the close, the first weekly close back under value since the recovery rolled over. Sellers leaned on every bounce the entire back half.
NQ took it the hardest. It opened 30822, tagged 30968 early, then the chip worry took the wheel and it bled to a 29182 low and a 29312 close, the 29700 week POC a ceiling now. The chip-led group that carried the tape all spring is the one dragging it lower.
CL kept doing what it has done for a month. It opened the week near 74, lost the 73 shelf by midweek, and closed 69.51 sitting on the 68.55 week low, the whole pre-crash structure stranded up near 80 and the spring’s value a different planet entirely. The barrels-are-coming-back trade has pulled price clean out of three months of value.
GC was the comeback story. It opened 4225, flushed to a fresh 2026 low at 3975, then reversed hard and closed 4086 back above the 4030 week POC. The metal that bled all spring is suddenly catching every dollar that runs out of tech, and it did it with the ten-year still going the wrong way for it.
Cross-asset read: One hawkish reset, two opposite trades. The indexes sold the rate scare and the growth worry on the same tape, while the rotation out of tech handed gold the bid it could not buy for itself all spring. The metal is up with yields up, which is not supposed to happen, and that divergence is the cleanest read on the board. Crude answers to supply and the talks, not the rate path, so it is in its own world at the lows.
Positioning (June 23 data): The trader crowd walked in leaning short both the S&P and the Nasdaq, which is exactly the bounce fuel that keeps getting lit every time the tape has to cover into strength. The barrel crowd finally flipped to the short side after riding the premium down all spring.
Vol: Equity protection stayed cheap on the S&P while the Nasdaq’s book is the jumpy one of the two, and crude still carries the fattest, loudest book on the screen. A tape priced for calm walking into Thursday’s number on a half day is the part that bites.
The Calendar
What I’m Watching This Week
1. Payrolls Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The override on every chart, and it lands on a half day before a long weekend. The first read since the projections flipped to a hike, dropping into a thin tape that shuts at noon. Hot confirms the dots, soft fights them, and either way the close carries gap risk into Monday.
2. NQ getting carried out. It closed 29312 under the 29700 wall where the week and the month both stacked their POC. While it is under that line the path points down at the 28506 June low, and the chip group that broke it is the one that has to fix it.
3. Gold’s reversal. It printed a fresh 2026 low at 3975 and turned on a dime, closing back above the 4030 week POC. The bid is the money leaving the semis, not the rate path, so the question is whether it holds 4030 or fades back into the flush.
4. Crude in a vacuum. Third week lower and pressing the 68.55 week and month low with no recent volume underneath. The whole pre-crash shelf is stranded near 80 and 91, so bounces are headline trades and the breakdown is the structure.
5. ES back under value. Friday closed under the 7408 value floor for the first time since the recovery topped. Reclaim 7408 and the dip stays a bounce, lose 7360 and the week turns heavy toward the 7307 June low where the month built its volume on June’s flush.
The Week’s Plan
ES:
ES closed the week at 7380, under the 7408 floor of its value, so the first job is reclaiming 7408 to get back inside the range. Above 7408 the 7444 week and month POC is next, then 7475 week VAH, and above there the 7558 last week’s value floor is the line that says the dip-buyers actually showed up. Through 7558 the 7613 last week’s POC is the wall where all the recovery volume now sits as supply, with 7649 last week’s high and the 7693 June high overhead. Hold 7360 and the dip stays a bounce. Lose 7360 the week low and 7355 the June VAL goes with it, then there is air down to 7307, the June low.
NQ:
NQ closed 29312, under the 29392 week value floor, the weakest of the four and the one the AI worry is carrying out. The line that matters is the 29700 stack where the week and the month both parked their POC, so reclaiming 29392 gets it back into value and 29700 is the wall it has to take to call this anything but a bounce. Above 29700 the 29890 week VAH opens, then air to the 30353 last week’s value floor and 30450 last week’s POC, with 30915 last week’s high overhead. Lose 29229 the June VAL and 29182 the week low is the gate, and losing that opens the vacuum straight to 28506.
CL:
Crude closed 69.51 sitting on the 68.55 week and month low, having fallen clean out of its own value with the 70 week POC the only nearby line overhead. A bounce has to first reclaim 73.06 the week VAH and 73.20 the month POC, and from there it is a long climb to the stranded volume at 75.85 last week’s POC, 77.55 last week’s VAH, and 80.04 the June VAH. Those are headline-only targets now. Lose 68.55 and there is no recent profile underneath, just price discovery into the 67 round and the 65 floor.
GC:
Gold reversed off the 3975 low and closed 4086, back above the 4030 week POC and pressing the 4106 week value high that lids the bounce. Reclaim 4106 and 4160 last week’s low is the first step, then 4231 last week’s value floor gets it back inside last week’s range, with 4250 last week’s POC and 4365 the June POC the next shelves up. Above there 4403 the June VAH and 4532 the May POC are the wall where the long crowd kept trimming all spring. Lose 4030 and 4049 the June VAL goes, then 3981 the week VAL, then back to 3975.
The White Van Stuff
ES has the calmest book of the four, the option crowd leaning slightly short with cheap protection and price pinned right on the 7400 put floor it has been defending. The magnet sits overhead at 7490 and the cap is a long way up at 7800, so the whole fight is in the dense interest shelf between the floor and the magnet.
NQ carries the heaviest put-side book of the four and it is sitting in the bottom third of its expected week, leaning on the 29000 floor with the magnet pinned just overhead at 29900. The cap is a long way up at 31000 with thin interest the whole way there, which is what a contract getting carried out looks like on the book.
CL owns the fattest, loudest book on the board and the vol on it never came in. The magnet is stranded up at 79 in a different era of the contract, the cap a relic at 90, and down at price the only thing that matters is the heavy interest stacked from 66 to 72 and the real floor a long way under at 65.
GC spent the week climbing back into its own book, price now pressing the upper interest after reversing off the low with the long crowd leaning hard into every bounce. The cap is up at 4300, the magnet sits overhead at 4195, and the put floor down at 4000 is the line the reversal cannot afford to lose.
Life moves pretty fast. Go blow up some shit with m80s and grill some burgers and hotdogs.
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