Happy Mothers Day to all the moms out there. There’s still time to call your mom before the market opens. No not to tell her to stop spending money and liquidate her 401k because the 1929 event is coming. But my goodness this rip of the low of the year call I made live on Ninjatrader apparently refuses to die. I don’t know what its going to take to stop it, but it’s starting to get a bit crazy to look at on the daily, 4hr, 1hr. Pretty much everything. I was not kidding when I said “lockout rally” a couple weeks ago.
SUNDAYTICKS EPISODE 02 TONIGHT
*NEW* - The Bracket: the trigger price, the cascade above, the staircase below, and the event that voids the read. Use it as the chart-side cheat sheet, not the whole story. Still playing with format. Open to feedback if it would be better as a table or image or just text.
The Week That Was
The week’s story was a strong April jobs print on Friday capping six straight up weeks for equities. Crude unwound the entire Strait premium from 108 down to 90 mid-week before settling 94.91 Friday. Gold went the other way and closed near the highs as longs added on the dip. The seventh straight up week happened with the trader crowd still loaded short the index. This is now squeeze fuel that won’t go away.
ES opened the week at 7250.50 and closed Friday at 7421, up 170 points and another 2.4% on top of the prior week’s record close. Week range 7199.25 to 7428. Week POC built right at 7420, value 7282.75 to 7427. Friday closed within a tick of the week POC and the all-time high. Trend day character on the print Friday with no real test below 7400.
NQ opened at 27854.50 and closed Friday at 29339.50, another 1,485 points of gain. Week high 29340.75 fresh, week low 27614.50. Week POC at 28670, value 27796 to 29001. Sixteen of seventeen sessions green now. The breakout retest at 27622 (April high) held early in the week and the rally extended through 29000 call ceiling like it wasn’t there.
CL opened the week at 102.82 and closed Friday at 94.91, down $7.91. Week range 90.30 to 106.76, a $16 round trip in five sessions. Week POC at 95.0 right where Friday closed. The headlines flipped enough times to clear out both sides of the book. The week ended with the entire war premium gone and the supply story back on the table.
GC opened the week at 4584.30 and closed Friday at 4733.40, up $149. Week range 4510.10 to 4775.20. Week POC at 4717.5, value 4584.6 to 4775.1. The April peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture but the longs that were supposed to be selling into ceasefire optimism added instead. Three weeks of distribution turned into one week of accumulation.
Cross-asset read: Equities ripped on payrolls, crude unwound on de-escalation, gold ripped on positioning. Three different stories, three different trajectories. The cleanest tell going into next week is whether crude finds a real bid at 90 or keeps leaking. If crude stays soft and gold stays bid into a CPI print, that’s a signal longs believe inflation is sticky enough that the Fed can’t cut.
Positioning (data as of 2026-05-05): The trader crowd on S&P is still net short 83,995 contracts going into the seventh up week. They covered roughly 11,000 contracts from last week’s 95,000 net short, but they’re still loaded against a tape that won’t quit. The Nasdaq crowd flipped basically flat (635 net long) after running heavy short the prior weeks. Gold’s long crowd is loaded at 156,500 net long going into a 3.2% up week. Crude positioning is small at 4,663 net long. The squeeze fuel on equities is still real and the gold long side just got paid for it.
Vol: ES 30-day implied at 14.4%. NQ at 20.8%. Vol is compressing on equities while crude and gold stay jumpy on headline risk. The market is pricing calm into the CPI print. Sizing rules differ by instrument.
The Calendar
What I’m Watching This Week
1. CPI Tuesday 7:30 CT. The override on every read. April core is the print that decides whether the rate-cut math survives or the Fed’s hike-watch language gets credit. A hot print and the entire seven-week rally is on the table for retest.
2. The 7-up streak. ES and NQ at fresh records going into a CPI print. Sixteen of seventeen NQ sessions green. Streaks end on prints, not headlines. The asymmetric read is short-side hedges from Monday to Tuesday morning.
3. Crude 90 holds or breaks. Crude lost $14 from the war premium peak and closed 94.91 right on week POC. Below 90 (week low) and the 89.70 April POC opens fast. Holds 90 and crude is back in the prior month’s range awaiting the next headline.
4. The trader crowd’s S&P short. 84,000 contracts still net short going into a seventh up week. Squeeze fuel doesn’t dissipate without a cover, and a cover won’t happen at the lows. If they finally throw in the towel, that’s another leg up.
5. Gold’s stickiness through ceasefire. Gold ripped back through 4775 against the de-escalation narrative. The 4789 call ceiling and 4775 week high are the same area. Above 4789 with conviction and the long crowd has the wheel. Below 4717 week POC and the long-side excitement gets retested.
The Week’s Plan
7420 week POC, the level the whole week respected. Above 7420 we work through 7428 week high into 7475 cluster and 7486 expected top with 7500-7550 stacked above. Below 7420 fails, 7400 call ceiling flips back to support, then 7282 week VAL, then 7211 April VAH opens the gap retest with 7160 prev week POC the deeper pull. CPI Tuesday is the override.
The Bracket: Trigger 7420 (week POC, the line the whole week respects). Above 7420 holds the cascade runs 7428 week high, 7475 cluster, 7486 expected top, 7500 air. Below 7420 fails through 7400 call ceiling (now support), 7282 week VAL, 7211 April VAH. Voided by a hot CPI print Tuesday.
29000 the line the rally just punched through, now flipped to weekly support. Above 29000 holds we extend through 29250-29300 cluster into 29500 cap and 29716 expected top with 29750/30000 round-number air above. Below 29000 fails, 28691 May VAH stacks first with 28670 week POC, then 27796 week VAL opens the deeper test with 27622 April VAH the line that has to hold to keep the breakout retest intact. CPI is the override.
The Bracket: Trigger 29000 (week call ceiling, just flipped to support). Above 29000 holds we extend through 29250 cluster, 29500 cap, 29716 expected top, 30000 air. Below 29000 fails through 28691 May VAH, 28670 week POC, 27796 week VAL, 27622 April VAH. Voided by a hot CPI Tuesday breaking 29000 and running to 28670.
95.0 week POC, the line the unwind closed on. Above 95 we work back through the 96 / 97.5 / 98 cluster into the 99-100 ceiling, then 102 prev week POC if 100 breaks. Below 95 fails and 94 / 93 / 92 stacks the staircase, then 90.30 week low cracks and 89.70 April POC opens with 85.70 April VAL the deeper floor. Headline tape runs every day, EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event.
The Bracket: Trigger 95 (week POC, the line the unwind closed on). Above 95 holds we work back through 96 nearby above, 98 cluster, 100 ceiling, 102 prev week POC. Below 95 fails through 93, 92, 90.30 week low, 89.70 April POC, 85.70 April VAL. Voided by the de-escalation tape reversing either direction with the headline shifting the range.
4733 Friday close sitting between 4717 week POC support and 4739 cluster cap. Above 4739 we work through 4775 week high into 4789 ceiling stacked with 4788 expected top, then 4812 April POC opens with 4844 April VAH and 4917 cycle peak above. Below 4717 fails and 4664 marks the first stop, then 4639/4614 cluster, then 4585 magnet, then 4584 week VAL where the entire week’s bid disappears. Below 4522 April low and the longs that just got paid this week start puking again.
The Bracket: Trigger 4717 (week POC, the floor the rally needs to hold). Above 4717 holds we extend through 4739 cluster, 4775 week high, 4789 ceiling, 4812 April POC. Below 4717 fails through 4664, 4585 magnet, 4584 week VAL, 4522 April low. Voided by a hot CPI Tuesday since that’s gold-bullish and equity-bearish at once and the cross-asset divergence breaks.
The White Van Stuff
ES sits 7421 right above the 7400 call ceiling that just flipped to support and below the 7415 same-day cap. Above 7425 (heavy interest, nearby above) the 7430 / 7450 / 7475 cluster opens the cascade through the 7486 expected top into 7500 / 7525 / 7550 heavy interest above the daily band. Below 7400 the structure flips back to the gap, and 7375 (heavy interest) catches first, then 7351 (today expected low), then 7350 (heavy interest) and 7300 (heavy interest) round-number cluster. Below 7275 (standard floor, all expiry and 0DTE) is where the rally has a real pricing problem. Tuesday’s CPI is the gun.
NQ blew through 29000 call ceiling during the week and now sits 29333 between the 29250 / 29300 interest cluster directly under price and the 29500 same-day cap above. Above 29400 the 29500 cap opens, then 29716 expected top tops the daily band, with 29750 / 30000 round-number heavy interest above as the air pocket. Below 29250 the 29200 / 29100 cluster catches first, then 29000 call ceiling now flipped to support, then 28948 expected low, then 28750 / 28700 heavy interest band. Below 28690 same-day pivot and the structural floor lives way down at 27000 standard floor. The rally extended past the ceiling on momentum that doesn’t care about the gamma map. CPI is the only thing that brings it back.
CL closed 94.91 right at the magnet 94.5 and the week POC. Above 95 the 96 nearby above catches first, then 97.5 / 98 heavy interest pair, then the 100 call ceiling clusters with 100.19 daily expected top and the 99 / 100 same-day caps. Past 100 the 103 heavy interest is the next reach toward the prior week’s 108 high, but that’s two days of strong bid away. Below 94 the 93 heavy interest, 92 heavy interest, then 90.65 expected low and 90 put floor catches at the week low. Below 90 the 89.5 / 87.5 / 87 / 85 staircase opens the deeper structural floor where the longs from prev-month value live.
Gold closed 4733 between the 4739 upside cluster cap directly above and the 4717 week POC support directly below. Above 4739 the 4764 nearby cluster catches first, then the 4775 week high / nearby above, then 4788 expected top and 4789 call ceiling stack on the same line. Past 4789 the 4814 / 4839 heavy interest pair sits in clean air toward the 4917 cycle peak. Below 4733 the 4717 week POC is the immediate support, then 4689 same-day cap (now flipped to floor from above), then 4664 heavy interest, then 4639 / 4614 heavy interest cluster catches. Past 4585 magnet, the 4584 week VAL opens the deeper test and the entire week’s bid disappears.
Lets have a good week. Not ready to put on the bear hat just yet. It’s taking alot for me to sit on my hands and not try to short this thing to 0. I don’t think its time yet. But my eyes are on 26,300-26200. See you tonight for SundayTicks.
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Bracket idea is awesome. I like it the way it is in text. Thank you NIck.