Well well well. That was quite the spicy close to end the week Friday wasn’t it? Eight straight up weeks for the indices, then one M period put it all in question. Some people just can’t handle a little 1.5% pullback after 30% straight upwards. ES and NQ both printed fresh records on Thursday at 7540 and 29782, then the overnight tape unwound the whole move down to 7429 and 29142 by the bell Friday. Crude finally cleared 100 for real on a 105 print. Gold puked through every layer of structure on the same yield move. The trader crowd that spent eight weeks adding shorts into the rip is finally getting either vindicated or one more squeeze. So here we are. ATHs the dow back over 50,000 and yet we are here looking at yields. Is the party about to end before summer? Lets find out.
“But equities don’t care about bonds?…..right?”
UPDATE: After some feedback, I have now made “The bracket” image that contains the key levels. This should make it easier to read and follow. I understand some of you found the narrative structure harder to read or just wanted the quick-hitter levels for the week or session.
The Week That Was
The week had two stories stacked on each other. Monday through Thursday was the eighth straight up week. The setup was clean. yields ripping, dollar bid, equities and gold getting carried out in the same move while crude finally got through 100 for real.
ES opened the week at 7410 and closed Friday at 7436, up 26 points net on a week that felt like a top. Week range 7363.25 to 7540. Week POC built at 7435.5, value 7363.5 to 7472. Friday closed sitting right on week POC after the overnight puke wiped out the prior session’s value area. Trend day character Thursday into a reversal day Friday.
NQ opened at 29305 and closed Friday at 29172, down 133 net but high-to-low Friday was 640 points. Week range 28742 to 29782, fresh weekly record on Thursday’s high. Week POC 29690, value 29179.25 to 29778. Friday parked on week VAL after the breakdown.
CL opened the week at 98.08 and closed Friday at 103.78, up $5.70 and through the 100 line that capped four prior weekly attempts. Week range 96.13 to 104.26. Week POC at 101.02, value 99.52 to 103.91. The line that mattered finally flipped. May POC 102 sits right under price as the new floor.
GC opened at 4681 and closed Friday at 4545, down $136. Week range 4539 to 4758. Week POC 4688, value 4664 to 4722. Friday’s overnight reversal cracked every layer of weekly structure. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture but the longs that were supposed to be selling on positioning got carried out instead.
Cross-asset read: The cleanest tell of the week is the simultaneous yield-up trade. Equities and gold got carried out in the same overnight move while crude finally cleared 100. That’s a real positioning shake. Three of four instruments broke from above in the same tape. The question into next week is whether Friday was the start of the unwind the spec community has been waiting on for two months, or one more flush before the trader crowd finally throws in the towel and gives the rally its squeeze.
Positioning (data as of 2026-05-12): The trader crowd on S&P added another 32,000 short contracts going into the eighth up week. Net short now 116,584 on S&P, biggest in the dataset. NQ flipped from net long 635 last report to net short 19,793 this report. They piled on shorts INTO the rip. Then Friday handed them their first real win in two months. Gold’s long crowd is loaded at 165,174 net long going into a yield-driven flush. Crude positioning is basically flat at 442 net long. The asymmetry on equities is the most loaded short positioning of the cycle going into a Fed event week.
Vol: The cage rebuilt below price on Friday. Implied bands broke from above on three of four instruments. Vol is no longer compressing, it’s repricing on the yield move.
The Calendar
Don’t forget about NVDA Earnings this week.
What I’m Watching This Week
1. The S&P trader crowd at record short. 116,584 contracts net short going into the eighth up week. The most loaded short positioning of the cycle. If they cover into next week’s tape, the rally extends one more leg. If they hold and add, Friday was the start of the unwind they spent two months waiting for.
2. Crude 100 holds as support. Crude cleared 100 for the first time in four weeks of attempts. Holding 100 next week is the test of whether the breakout is real or another headline pump. Below 100 and the May POC at 102 flips back to ceiling.
3. Gold 4584 prev week VAL. Gold puked through 4688 week POC and 4664 week VAL on the yield move. 4584 prev week VAL is the line the longs need to defend to keep the cycle alive. Below 4522 April low and the entire April distribution unwinds.
4. Yields and dollar. Friday’s move was a clean yield reprice. Three of four instruments broke from above on the same tape. Watch the 10Y and DXY into the week. Yields holding above Friday’s bid keeps pressure on equities and gold. Yields cooling and the spec-short squeeze comes back into play.
The Week’s Plan
ES:
7435 week POC, the line Friday’s overnight reversal parked on and the level the whole week revolves around. Above 7435 holds we work back through 7472 week VAH then 7507 prior Thursday VAL into the 7525/7526 yesterday POC and close cluster. Above 7526 the week-high retest opens through 7540 yesterday high in clean air with May VAH at 7530 the only structural cap in between. Below 7435 fails and 7427 prev week VAH stacks tight with 7420 prev week POC and May POC paired right under as the structural gate, then air opens to 7363 week low. Below 7363 the deeper test runs through 7327 May VAL, 7282 prev week VAL, then 7211 April VAH and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits.
NQ:
29180 week VAL, the line Friday’s dump parked on. Above 29180 holds the rebuild works through 29250 May VAH into 29476 mid-cascade then 29636/29690 yesterday VAL and POC paired tight on the week POC level. Above 29690 the run reopens through 29778 week VAH and 29782 yesterday high which is also week high in clean air. Below 29180 fails, 29142 yesterday low cracks, then 29001 prev week VAH is the structural gate at the line the rally had to take out to extend. Below 29001 we lose 28742 week low and 28670 prev week POC stacked, then the May POC at 27880 is the next floor with 27622 April high and 27400 April POC the multi-month structure below. Sixteen of seventeen green sessions ended in one Globex.
CL:
100 the line that finally flipped after capping four weekly attempts. Above 100 holds we work back through 101.02 week POC into 102 May POC and the 103.64 yesterday VAL cluster. Above 103.91 week VAH the upside extends through 104.22 May VAH and 104.26 week high, then 105.31 prev month close opens with 106.76 prev week high the deeper test toward 108.50 prev month high. Below 100 fails and the 99.52 week VAL stacks with April VAH at the same level, then 95.37 May VAL is the next floor before 95 prev week POC, then 89.70 April POC catches the deeper fade with 85.70 April VAL the structural floor. EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled crude event but the headline tape runs every day.
GC:
4584 prev week VAL, the line gold needs to reclaim to repair the weekly structure. Above 4584 holds we work back through the 4664 week VAL into 4688 week POC paired with April VAL on the same line, then 4696 May POC into 4722 week VAH. Above 4733 the prev week close opens, then 4758 week high and 4775 prev week high stack tight, with 4812 April POC the bigger ceiling and 4844 April VAH then 4917 cycle peak above. Below 4584 fails and the 4539 week low cracks, then 4522 April low opens the breakdown, then 4510 prev week low, then air to 4450 prior swing where the April long crowd finally goes underwater. Yields up means gold down.
The White Van Stuff
The yield-up trade rebuilt the positioning cage below price on three of four instruments overnight Friday. Dealer net gamma dropped 49% on ES and 79% on NQ in a single session. The wall is no longer the wall it was. Gold’s long crowd is still at 165,000 net long going into the same yield move that’s pulling them lower. Next week’s tape decides whether the trader crowd’s record short capitulates and gives the rally its squeeze, or holds and Friday extends.
ES sits 7436 right on the 7420 put floor and pivot pivot, with the 7500 call ceiling sitting 65 points overhead as the structural cap. Same-day expected band is plus or minus 70 handles into Monday.
NQ is parked 29172 below the 29175 put floor and the 29260 pivot pivot, with the 30000 call ceiling sitting 800 points overhead. The all-expiry put floor shifted DOWN 65 points to 29175 as Friday’s reversal repriced the floor. The positioning cage is now stacked below price by about 200 points.
Crude cleared 100 with conviction and the 102 same-day cap flipped to support after the rip. The 105 expected high tops the daily band, the 109.60 all-expiry call ceiling sits in clean structure above.
Gold settled 4545 below every options floor that mattered Friday. Put floor at 4675 and pivot at 4685 are both fully broken from above. The 4625 expected low is now overhead and the daily band tops at 4745, well above current price.
There are no two words more dangerous than “fully priced in.” Head on a swivel. React and don’t predict this week.
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