Hopefully no one is trying to trade this Today. Even reading this for context is nonsense until the market actually opens for RTH Tuesday morning. Anyway, Trump tweeted the Iran deal was “largely negotiated” Saturday afternoon. By Sunday lunchtime, he was already walking it back. Globex did not care. NQ ripped 460 off Friday’s close before Memorial Day even opened, ES tagged 7566, the highest print since the cycle, and crude got carried out 6%. Gold caught a small bid because somebody still does not believe any of it. Each instrument’s section ends with The Bracket: the trigger, the cascade above, the staircase below. Use it chart-side, not as the whole story.
Go enjoy the holiday. Then join us Tonight at 8 pm CT for SUNDAYTICKS (Mondayticks?*)
The Week That Was
Last week had two stories stacked. The first half was the recovery from the prior Friday’s record reversal. ES and NQ both rebuilt through Tuesday and Wednesday to within striking distance of the cycle highs. Then NVDA reported Wednesday after the bell. $81.6B revenue, 85% YoY, $80B buyback, upbeat chip-sales guide. The stock dipped on margin worries and the index futures used it as the excuse to take Thursday to record close on the Dow with ES tagging 7524 and NQ printing 29749 within a hair of last week’s all-time. Then Friday’s half-session before Memorial Day did the second story: gold gave back another leg, crude dumped through 100 and through 95 in the same session ending at 97, and the weekend headlines on the agreement framework set up the gap-up tape we walked in to this morning.
ES opened the week at 7430 and closed Friday’s half-day at 7484, up 54 net on a week with a wide 7354 to 7524 range. Week POC built at 7425 sitting right on the May POC 7420, value 7375 to 7453. The 7354 weekly low was Monday’s flush before the rebuild. Trend day character Thursday into the half-day pulse Friday.
NQ opened at 29030 and closed Friday at 29520, up 490 net on a 28663 to 29749 range that visited the prior week’s low Monday then ripped back to within 33 of the cycle high Thursday. Week POC 29240, value 28838 to 29348. The short crowd that was loaded going into the prior reversal covered hard. NQ positioning closed 14,000 shorts in one week.
CL opened the week at 102.85 and closed Friday at 97, down $5.85 on a week the 100 line failed for real. Week range 94.73 to 105.21. Week POC 102 paired with May POC 98 directly. The 100 breakout from two weeks ago is now broken from above and the prev month POC at 90.90 is the next real magnet underneath. Trend down day Thursday and Friday.
GC opened at 4540 and closed Friday at 4510, down $30 net on a week range 4455 to 4593. Week POC 4542, value 4498 to 4554. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture and the long crowd keeps shedding. The April low at 4128 is the deeper destination if 4455 cracks.
Cross-asset read: The cleanest tell of last week is what happened around NVDA. The numbers were a beat and a buyback and the stock barely budged, which the algos read as the AI trade getting tired. Then Thursday the indices ripped to record on Dow anyway because de-escalation matters more than NVDA right now. Crude finally took 100 off the table and gold kept selling on the same yield move. Three of four instruments closed Friday in the middle of last week’s range. Then the weekend handed the indices a Sunday rip on the deal framework and crude got steamrolled on the same headline. The question into next week is whether the deal closes and the moves extend, or it falls apart and the gap fills before Tuesday’s open.
Positioning (data as of 2026-05-19): The short side on S&P stayed loaded at 113,960 net short, only covering 2,624 contracts through the rebuild. The NQ side blinked. They went from 19,793 net short to 5,770 net short in one week, covering 14,023 contracts as price ripped to within 33 of the cycle high. That cover happened BEFORE the weekend gap. Coming in Tuesday morning, the NQ shorts are looking at price well above their reduced-short level with the cycle high already taken out in Globex. Gold’s long crowd is shedding fast at 148,660 net long, down 16,000 from the prior report as yields kept ripping. Crude positioning on ICE WTI is 9,268 net long, flat to slightly long going into the de-escalation tape.
Vol: Equity vol is sitting right where you would not want it. ES IV 13.65% and NQ IV 19.97% going into a Core PCE print and a deal announcement window. Gold is set up to expand below the structural cap rather than dampen. Crude IV is still bid hard at 80.75% because the contract has not figured out where to settle.
The Calendar
What I’m Watching This Week
1. The deal headline window. Trump said Saturday a 60-day ceasefire extension framework is largely negotiated and the Strait reopens with Iran selling oil freely. Sunday he walked it back saying he will not rush it. Both sides of that statement live in this week’s tape. Headline either way moves crude and equities in opposite directions intraday.
2. NQ 29749 cycle high retest. Sunday Globex already cleared it on the gap. The line that matters going into Tuesday’s RTH open is whether the breakout holds with volume or fades back inside last week’s value at 29348. The short side covered 14,000 last week. If they fold the rest, NQ 30,000 is in play. If price gets faded back below 29500 the cover trade reverses.
3. Crude 100 from below. The line that capped four weekly attempts then flipped and then failed and then got steamrolled is now overhead. Watching where price settles versus 100. Above 100 means deal optimism is being faded. Below 95 with conviction means the prev month POC at 90.90 is the next destination and the long crowd that piled in over $100 is fully underwater.
4. Gold 4498 last week VAL. Gold puked through every layer last week and closed at 4510. Last week’s VAL at 4498 is the line the longs need to defend to keep the cycle alive. Below 4455 last week low and the April distribution starts to unwind. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture.
5. Core PCE Thursday 7:30 AM CT. The Fed’s preferred inflation print into a 30Y at 5.197% and a 10Y at 4.687%. Yields holding above last week’s bid keeps pressure on equities and gold. Yields cooling and the deal closes and the rally extends one more leg.
The Week’s Plan
ES:
7484 last week’s close paired with the 7483 May VAH, the line Sunday Globex jumped over to settle at 7562. Above 7524 last week high holds we extend through 7540 the prior week high cluster and 7555 expected high overhead and the target opens above 7600 in clean air. Above 7484 holds but 7524 caps we work the 7484 to 7524 chop range. Below 7484 fails and 7453 last week VAH catches the first leg, then 7425 last week POC paired with 7420 May POC is the structural gate. Below 7420 we lose 7375 last week VAL and 7354 last week low opens the next leg, then air to 7282 prior week VAL and 7160 April POC where the real volume sits.
NQ:
29520 last week’s close, the line Sunday Globex jumped 460 above to settle at 29979 right under the 30000 structural cap. Above 29749 last week high holds the breakout extends through 29930 expected high into 30000 in clean structure with 30250 the next options shelf above. Above 29520 holds and 29749 caps we work the 29520 to 29749 chop range. Below 29520 fails and 29348 last week VAH catches the first leg, then 29240 last week POC is the gate paired with 29300 May POC. Below 29240 we lose 28838 last week VAL and 28663 last week low opens the cascade, then 28587 May VAL and air to 27622 April high stacks next, then 27400 April POC where the multi-month volume sits. The short side already covered 14,000.
CL:
100 the line that capped four weekly attempts, then flipped, then failed, and now sits overhead as the structural ceiling. Above 95.98 May VAL holds the rebuild works through 96.66 prior week VAL into 97.96 last week VAL paired with 97 last week close. Above 100 the deal optimism is being faded and 102 May POC catches the move with 105.21 last week high above. Below 95 fails and 94.73 last week low cracks, then air opens to 93.21 prior week VAL and 92.83 prior week low. Below 92.83 we lose 90.90 prev month POC the deep magnet, then 88.75 the long-term level where the real volume sits with 84.69 April VAL the structural floor underneath.
GC:
4498 last week VAL, the line gold needs to defend to keep the cycle alive. Above 4542 last week POC paired with 4550 May POC holds the rebuild works through 4554 last week VAH into 4593 last week high. Above 4593 we extend to 4654 April VAH and 4698 May VAH with 4717 April high the deeper test. The cycle peak at 4917 still caps the bigger picture. Below 4498 fails and 4469 May VAL catches the first leg, then 4464 April VAL stacks, then 4455 last week low is the gate. Below 4455 we lose air to 4128 April low where the long crowd from prev month POC 4600 finally folds. Yields ripping means gold keeps selling.
The White Van Stuff
The positioning cage rebuilt above price on equities through last week and the weekend rip cleared the structural caps on NQ. Gold is set up to expand moves below the structural cap rather than dampen. Crude vol stays bid at IV 80% with the contract structurally untethered from same-day positioning until the headline tape settles.
ES sits 7562 above the 7500 same-day cap and the 7555 expected high, with 7590 the same-day cap stacked tight as the next overhead surface. The 7600 all-expiry cap sits above. The 7395 magnet and 7200 floor sit well underneath.
NQ punched clean through 29500 same-day cap and 29930 expected high overnight to settle 29979 right under the 30000 all-expiry cap. The 30250 next shelf is the upside catch above the cap. The 28960 magnet and 28000 floor sit well underneath as the deeper positioning surfaces.
Crude blew through every options floor on Friday and the weekend extended the dump. 100 same-day cap is overhead. 92 heavy interest cluster is right at price. The 88.75 magnet is the structural magnet underneath. Net positioning is still positive at +187M which is why the headline drives the next move either direction.
Gold settled below every options floor that mattered last week and the weekend bid only got it back to 4574, right under the 4580 magnet. Net positioning is still negative which means the contract expands moves rather than dampening them. The 4510 all-expiry cap is now below price after the bid. The 4450 floor and 4567 expected high are both broken in opposite directions.
May the odds be ever in your favor.
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