Six up weeks. Best month for equities since 2020. ES at fresh record closes, NQ at fresh all-time highs, and the trader crowd is sitting on 95,000 short S&P contracts going in. They keep trying to short the highs. They keep getting carried out. Nobody wants to talk about that. NFP Friday, AMD, and Palantir on the tape. Don’t short the rally because it feels too far. Don’t blindly keep holding for higher in a melt-up because the last six weeks worked. Read what the market gives you and stop trying to predict the seventh. Nothing would make me happier than to wake the sellers up from their slumber before this turns into a snoozer of a market heading into summer. This is me starting a personal attack on the bears to try to motivate them to give us a two-way trade.
In lighter news, Tonight at 8pm CT we are launching the first official episode of SUNDAYTICKS. Live on Substack, YouTube, X, and Kick. We would love if you joined us for some fun, learning, and some LucidTrading account giveaways.
The Week That Was
April closed as the best month for equities since 2020. ES added 9.85%. NQ added 15.6%. Friday closed both at fresh records. Sixth straight up week on each, longest run since October 2024. The fuel was earnings. 84% of S&P companies have beaten EPS this season, the highest beat rate since Q2 2021, and earnings growth is printing 31% year over year against analyst desks that underwrote 8%. AAPL was Friday’s catalyst. Solid numbers, pulled the tape with it. NVDA and META lagged on the week. The leadership rotates, the index keeps grinding.
Crude was the wild card. Mid-week WTI ripped to $108.50 on Strait of Hormuz headlines, then puked back to $101.94 by Friday on ceasefire chatter. That’s a $6 round trip in three sessions. The supply story isn’t fixed and the headlines flip price 5% on a single tweet. EIA Wednesday gets watched. Anyone who got short crude into the Friday fade is hoping the talks actually produce something this time.
FOMC held 3.5 to 3.75% Wednesday in an 8-4 dissent vote. Four dissents, the most since 1992. Powell’s hot quote was that elevated oil prices “will push up overall inflation.” Translation. If crude doesn’t come back to earth, the Fed isn’t cutting. Year-end odds now sit at 10% chance of a cut and 6% chance of a hike. Pre-FOMC the hike odds were zero. The Fed is telling you they aren’t in a hurry and they’d rather hike into a re-acceleration than cut into one.
ES opened the week at 7186.25 and closed Friday at 7257.50, up 71 points on the week and another 1.0% on top of the prior week’s gain. Week range 7137 to 7301. Week POC built at 7160, value area 7142.50 to 7209.75. Friday hit a new record at 7301 then sold to 7255.50 and grinded back to settle. Inside-day character with sellers above the 7300 round number. The structural shelf is now 50 to 100 points above last week’s value.
NQ opened at 27410.75 and closed Friday at 27837.25, another 426 points of gain on top of last week’s 600. Week POC at 27400, week high 27917 (fresh all-time high), week low 27009.50. Friday was the breakout session and the first retest of the move sat right on April’s old high at 27622. Fifteen of sixteen sessions green on this thing now. Whoever was trying to short the highs got carried out again.
CL opened the week at 96.32, ripped to 108.50 mid-week on Hormuz headlines, then sold to 102.18 by Friday on ceasefire chatter. Week range 95.29 to 108.50, that’s a $13 swing in five sessions. Week POC at 99.90, value area 98.85 to 106.00. Friday was a 3% sustained-down day. The Strait stayed shut, the talks lit up, and crude took its $6 victory lap and gave half of it back.
GC opened the week at 4726.50 and closed Friday at 4623, down $103 on the week. Week range 4522.20 to 4728. Week POC at 4630, value 4553.40 to 4658.10. Sold off as the safety bid leaked. The April peak at 4917 is a lower-high vs the cycle. Friday bounced $30 off the day low which is the only positive thing to say. Three weeks of distribution.
Cross-asset read: Equities are at fresh records, crude is range-bound after a $13 swing, and gold gave back $103. The split between equities and gold (safety bid leaking) is the cleanest divergence on the screen heading into NFP. The crude tape is its own story, and it can flip on a tweet.
Positioning (data as of 2026-04-28). The S&P trader crowd is net short 95,367 contracts going into a 6th up week. They keep getting carried out. Cover risk is squeeze fuel. Gold’s long crowd is loaded at 153,000 net long going into a 2.2% down week. Anyone holding for the geopolitical premium is now back to last week’s value area. Crude positioning is small but the long side is real, 3,500 net long. Nasdaq positioning data didn’t print this week.
Vol: Vol is compressing on equities while crude and gold stay jumpy. Equities believe the rally. Commodities don’t. Sizing rules differ by instrument.
The Calendar
The Map and What I’m Watching
ES Friday hit a new record at 7301 then sold to 7255.50 and grinded back to settle at 7257.50. Textbook test-and-hold. The whole week built between 7142.50 and 7209.75. Above 7273 (Friday POC) and we go retest the highs. Below 7211 (April VAH) and the rally needs a real pullback to reset. The line in the sand is 7160. That’s week POC AND April POC AND the level value spent the most time at all month. Lose 7160 with conviction and 7137 (week low) is in play, then 7079.25 (prev week low) is the next shelf.
NQ broke to fresh all-time highs Friday and held. The Friday low at 27617.75 sits right on April’s high (27622). That’s the breakout retest, the cleanest level in the brief. Hold above 27622 keeps the trend intact. Lose 27622 and the 27453 week VAH is the next shelf, then 27434 (prev wk close), then 27400 (week POC = April POC = the line). Below 27400 the rally has a real problem and 27046 (week VAL) opens the air pocket to 27009 (week low). Above 27917 takes us into uncharted into the 28000 round number.
Crude is binary. Range was 95.29 to 108.50 in five sessions. Friday closed 102.18. Above 103.88 we head back toward 105/106 (where heavy options interest sits) and the week high. Below 99.30 the support runs to 95.29 (week low) then way down to 89.70 (April POC). The 89.70 number is real. That’s where crude lived for most of April before the geopolitical bid kicked in. Watch EIA Wednesday and headline tape all week.
Gold puked from 4732 down to 4522 last week and got bought back to 4623. The 4917 April high is a lower-high vs the cycle. Hold 4597 (Friday low / May low) and we work back toward the 4673 high then 4710 (prev wk VAL). Lose 4597 and the magnet at 4565 catches first, then 4553 (week VAL), then 4522 (week low / April low). Lose 4522 and the long crowd starts puking inventory, because they’ve been long and wrong since the 4917 cycle peak.
What I’m Watching This Week
1. NFP Friday 7:30 CT. The override on every read. Average hourly earnings is the line. Hot wages keep the Fed in hike-watch mode and that flips the rate-cut expectation entirely.
2. AMD Tuesday after-close + Palantir Monday after-close. AMD is the biggest single-name catalyst for NQ this week. Palantir sets the AI-tape tone for the rest of the prints. Don’t carry levered NQ longs into either reaction.
3. NQ 27622 breakout retest. Fresh ATH on Friday, but the Friday low sat right on April’s old high. Hold this and the trend stays clean. Lose it and the breakout isn’t real and the cluster down at 27400 comes into play fast.
4. Crude headline tape. The $6 round trip in three sessions tells you the news path matters more than anything else for CL this week. EIA Wednesday is the only scheduled event but the headline tape runs all week.
5. GC 4522 holds. The week low and April low are the same number. Lose 4522 with sellers behind it and the long crowd that’s been holding for the geopolitical premium starts puking. Above 4750 (prev wk POC) is the level they need back to feel alive.
The White Van Stuff
The gamma is in the room with us. On equities the options structure is positively setup. Net dealer hedging exposure on S&P jumped 46% week over week. They’re adding interest right at current price, biggest concentrations at 7245 and 7250. Below 7230 the dealer interest dropped meaningfully. That side just got cleared out. Translation. The market rebuilt its options structure ABOVE the rally. Above 7300 (the all-expiry call ceiling) you’re into a chase. Below 7170 (the magnet level) and downside opens up.
NQ saw the same +40% week. Heavy interest stacked at 27800/27750/27760. The 27710 level (the prior call ceiling) just lost a big chunk of dealer hedging. That’s the level that broke. Above 27800 sits the new same-day cap. Above 28000 is where the all-expiry call ceiling lives. The structural floor is way down at 25550 (the magnet), but the immediate floor on heavy positioning is 27500.
Crude options are messy. Structural ceiling at 110, structural floor at 85. Heavy interest stacked at 105/105.5/106 on the upside (the area where Hormuz news pushes hit) and at 101/102 (right at spot). Standard floor at 100, same-day cap at 110. The magnet level is way down at 88.25, where price would gravitate without geopolitical noise. We’re nowhere near calm pricing yet.
Gold ceiling sits at 4784.91, floor at 4436. Heavy interest at 4685 (just above current), 4575, 4655. The magnet at 4565.60 sits just below Friday’s low. If gold loses 4597 the magnet is the obvious next pull. Same-day cap at 4735, the level that caps any short-term bounce.
The Week’s Plan
ES: Above 7301 (Friday/May high) and the chase extends with 7323 as the expected top, then 7350 and 7375 where heavy interest stacks. Hold 7257.50 (Friday close) keeps the trend. Lose 7211 (April VAH) and 7194.50 (prev week close) is the first shelf, then 7170 (magnet level), then 7160 (the line, week POC = April POC). Below 7160 with conviction and 7137 (week low) is in play. NFP Friday is the override on every read.
NQ: Above 27917 takes us into the 28000 round number where the call ceiling stacks, with 28172 as the expected top. Hold 27622 (Friday low / April high / breakout retest) and the trend stays clean. Lose 27622 and 27500 is the next shelf, then 27434 (prev week close), then 27400 (week POC = April POC = the line). Below 27400 the rally has a real problem and 27046 / 27009 are the air pocket. AMD AMC Tuesday is the biggest single-name catalyst this week. Don’t carry size into it without a plan.
CL: No directional lean. Range is 95.29 to 108.50 and price is in the middle. Above 103.88 we work back toward 105/106 (heavy interest cluster) and the 108.50 week high. Below 99.30 (Friday low) the downside stack pulls to 95.29 (week low), then 89.70 (April POC where crude actually lived all month). EIA Wednesday and headline risk all week. The setup is reactive, not predictive.
GC: Hold 4597 (Friday low / May low) and we work back toward 4673 (Friday high), 4710 (prev wk VAL), 4732 (prev wk close), and 4750 (prev wk POC) is the level the long crowd needs back. Lose 4597 and the magnet at 4565.60 catches first, then 4553 (week VAL), then 4522 (week low / April low). Below 4522 the long crowd starts puking. If equities keep ripping AND ceasefire holds, gold stays heavy.
Lets have some fun this week. And Bulls? Maybe let the sellers win for at least a session or two.
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